tine Liberation Organiza-
tion, and definitely with the
Arabs, it's something that
makes them much more cau-
tious."
Another factor which
might attract Soviet Jews to
Likud is Israel's physical
size, according to political
scientist Galia Golan.
"You're getting people
who are coming from an
enormous country, and
when they arrive here, I
think one of the shocks they
have is the size of the coun-
try," said Dr. Golan, direc-
tor of the Marjorie
Meyrocks Center for Soviet
and East European Re-
search at Hebrew Universi-
ty in Jerusalem. "So if you
just talk about [giving up]
territory for peace, they
don't really see what kind of
territory you can give up."
But Likud may be coun-
ting its chickens too swiftly
if it assumes a gold mine of
votes in the Soviet Jewish a-
liyah, say many political
analysts.
These analysts say that
Likud's mishandling of the
Soviet absorption process
will cause many voters to
turn away from the right-
wing party.
It's widely accepted that
the Likud-led government
was ill-prepared to accept
the hundreds of thousands
of Soviet Jews emigrating to
the country, a situation that
has resulted in a severe lack
of housing and employment
for the new immigrants.
The situation is so bad
that it's affected immigra-
tion patterns to Israel. The
Israeli government recently
acknowledged that tens of
thousands of Soviet Jews
are postponing or cancelling
moving to Israel because of
the country's inability to
provide jobs for those al-
ready there.
"I believe that if things
don't change drastically, Li-
kud will lose most of the
support which it hopes it en-
joys now," said Mr. Sharan-
sky. He cited government
inefficiency and bureaucra-
tic red-tape as the main
causes of Soviet disillusion-
ment with Likud.
The degree to which Labor
will benefit from this dissat-
isfaction is a much-debated
point.
According to one political
scientist, Mikhail Agursky,
the advantage could be
enough to grant Labor a
strong majority in the corn-
ing election. "I hear of hun-
dreds of thousands of Rus-
sian immigrants saying that
they would go toward the
left," said Dr. Agursky, an
expert on the Soviet Union
at Hebrew University. "There
will be a very strong punish-
ment for Likud" in the next
election, he said.
Galia Golan also forecast
that many more Soviets
than expected will vote for
left-wing parties.
For one thing, unlike the
Soviet ohm of the 1970s, the
majority of these Jews are
both secular and non-
nationalistic, factors which
might cause them to reject
Likud, with its emphasis on
nationalism and close ties to
the religious political par-
ties, she said.
Moreover, a portion of the
population displays an in-
terest in issues of equality
and freedom of speech,
which would also cause it to
identify with left-wing par-
ties, Dr. Golan added.
"I've had contact with a
large number of Soviet
Jews, and I've found a tre-
mendous concern for human
rights, which is transferred
to everybody, whether it's
Arabs, Jews, or Palestin-
ians," she said. "It was the
same kind of feelings that
you had among American
Jews who went out and
fought in the civil rights
movement."
But Dr. Golan foresaw a
less radical change in the Is-
raeli political scene than
that predicted by Dr. Agur-
sky. She said Soviet voting
patterns would follow those
already set by Israelis, with
votes split somewhat evenly
between Labor and Likud.
Another school of thought
claims that Labor will not
reap any reward from the
Soviet aliya, but that im-
migrant votes may flow in-
stead toward their own, new-
ly formed parties.
Many experts say
the Soviets will
vote for Likud out
of general disdain
for Labor's
socialist
association.
Others see Aliya
inefficiency hurting
Likud.
"I can see why Soviet
Jews, feeling desperate, and
seeing how this political
system works, would think
that the only way to change
something would be to cre-
ate some seats in the Knes-
set," said Mr. Sharansky.
That prediction is already
becoming something of a re-
ality. Reports have circu-
lated about Soviet im-
migrants forming the
Zionist, Immigration and
Democracy Party to push
their own agenda.
Like religious parties, a
Soviet political entity would
probably be cast in the role
of a "swing party" between
Labor and Likud, enabling
the immigrants to bargain
with each for their demands,
according to Robert 0.
Freedman, a professor of po-
litical science at Baltimore
Hebrew University.
Soviet immigrants could
derive a number of benefits
from the formation of their
own parties, including im-
proved prospects for em-
ployment and housing, said
Mr. Sharansky. But the
overall effect of such a move
would be negative, he said.
"I don't like the idea of
parties of new immigrants
against the others," said
Mr. Sharansky, who has ad-
amantly denied rumors that
he will lead a new party.
"Because the whole idea is
for us to become part of Is-
rael, not to remain foreign-
ers. If you're creating a par-
ty that's fighting for your
interests, against the inter-
ests of the others, overall, as
new Israelis, we would
definitely lose."
A better move on the part
of Soviet immigrants would
be to lobby existing parties,
said Mr. Sharansky
Others foresaw even
grimmer consequences from
the formation of one or more
Soviet Jewish parties. Such
a party "will ruin the new
immigrants," said Dr.
Agursky. "It will immedi-
ately incite the rest of Israeli
society against them. And
the Russians would be the
victims."
Yet the concept of such
parties seems appealing to
many Soviet Jews.
"I think Jews who arrive
from Russia have no one to
present their ideas, and their
needs, and I'm not sure that
the parties that exist now
can do this," said Victoria
Vaksman, a systems analyst
from Leningrad who emi-
grated to Jerusalem in May
1990.
Ms. Vaksman, who finds
fault with the platforms of
both Labor and Likud, add-
ed that she would seriously
consider supporting a Soviet
Jewish party.
Ilya Gorelick, a Soviet
pulmonary specialist who
emigrated to Jerusalem in
April 1990, expressed simi-
lar sentiments. A Soviet
party could help Israel to
exploit fully the talents of
the Soviet Jews, he said.
Dr. Gorelick rejected the
claim that this kind of party
would incite people against
Soviet Jews.
"Every group now has a
party, the religious, the
Yemenites," said Dr.
Gorelick, who does not see
much difference between Li-
kud and Labor. "I don't
think that it would be terri-
ble to have an aliyah party."
There's certainly no lack
of effort to woo Soviet
voters. The process begins
in the Soviet Union, where
representatives from Labor,
Likud and a myriad of
smaller parties on the left
and right distribute propa-
ganda to Jews thinking
about aliyah.
The indoctrination con-
tinues once the immigrants
reach Israel. Government
officials sometimes channel
new ohm into ultra-
Orthodox run ulpanim,
(Hebrew language courses)
where they receive a strong
dose of religious-style poli-
tics. Moreover, many parties
conduct seminars and
Hebrew and Judaic studies
courses for new immigrants.
The efforts are particular-
Natan Sharansky
warns against
formation of a
separate Soviet
Jewish political
party.
ly intense on the part of
ultra-Orthodox religious
parties, according to Dr.
Golan. But it's generally
agreed that these parties
stand to lose more than
they'll gain from the influx,
which is largely secular.
"If in general you say that
10 percent of Israelis are re-
ligiously oriented, maybe
it's only 2 percent of the new
Soviets," said Yehuda
Weinraub, a spokesman for
the Jewish Agency. So over-
all the number of seats held
by the religious parties is
likely to drop, Mr. Weinraub
said.
Still another issue up for
debate is how politically ac-
tive the new immigrants will
be.
Political analysts such as
Dr. Golan say that the Sovi-
et Jews are more interested
in solving the day-to-day
problems of their lives like
finding employment and
housing than becoming in-
volved in the thorny world
of Israeli politics.
On the other hand, the
immigrants may see politics
as the only way to solve
their existential problems —
and therefore jump into the
fray.
"It's possible that be-
cause of the difficult situa-
tion in which [the im-
migrants] find themselves,
they'll become interested in
a political means of solving
their problems," said Mr.
Sharansky.
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THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
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