NEWS
MOVING?
Arab Summit May Show
Assad's Power Slipping
HELEN DAVIS
Jerusalem Correspondent
erusalem — The last
time King Hussein of
Jordan hosted an Arab
summit in his tiny kingdom
(pop: 2.1 million), President
Hafez Assad of Syria stole the
limelight by staying away. In-
deed, the Syrian leader not
only boycotted the meeting
but dramatized his displea-
sure by massing his troops
menacingly on the Jordanian
border.
At that time — November
1980 — Assad was at odds
with his Arab brothers on two
central issues: he supported
the year-old Soviet interven-
tion in Afghanistan and he
supported non-Arab Iran in
its two-month-old war with
Iraq.
His brinkmanship served
not only to humiliate the Jor-
danian monarch in what
should have been his proudest
hour, but also, for the first
time, to demonstrate his
power of veto over Jordan and
the rest of the moderate Arab
world.
Now, the Syrian leader
looks set to inflict yet another
humiliation on Hussein and
to once more emphasize his
veto power. For when the
leaders of the Arab world
gather in Amman this week-
end (November 8), Assad will
again be the center of
attention.
This time, though, the
Syrian leader will make the
journey to Amman — a
journey that has been
lubricated by Iranian oil,
Saudi money and Soviet
prodding.
He will still be the sole
Arab supporter of non-Arab
Iran in its war against Iraq.
But now he will also be the
major opponent of Egypt's
readmission to the Arab
ranks and he will seek to
plant the obstacle on which
Hussein will stumble on the
road to a settlement with
Israel.
The Arab leaders were sum-
moned to Amman by Hussein
a key political supporter of
Iraq in the Gulf War — with
the sole intention of present-
ing a united Arab front to
condemn Iran and push for an
'end to the conflict.
Assad will cast his first veto
at the first sight of any resolu-
tion that strongly denounces
Iran — and, by implication,
Syria itself.
He will cast his second veto
j
Assad: opposed to peace talks
and restoring Egypt to the heart
of the Arab fold.
if attempts are made to for-
mally restore Egypt to the
heart of the Arab fold and end
its official isolation — a
punishment for its unilateral
peace treaty with Israel in
1979.
And he has insisted that
the agenda be broadened to
include a debate on the sub-
ject of an international peace
conference, by which he
means to block Hussein's ef-
forts to strike a deal with
Israel.
The Syrian leader will prob-
ably have his way, at least in
public. Arab summits, after
all, are nothing if they are not
demonstrations of unity, and
no resolution will be passed
unless it enjoys the support of
all participants.
But while the Arab leaders
at the Amman summit
might, in the interests of uni-
ty, accommodate the sen-
sitivities of the "Lion of
Damascus," they might also
find that some of his teeth
have been drawn.
Assad does indeed still hold
some important blocking
cards in terms of the Arab-
Israeli conflict and the Gulf
War, but are they neither as
critical nor as potent as they
once were.
Beset by endemic political
problems and an escalating
economic crisis, he was this
week moved to sack his prime
minister and orchestrate a
major reorganization of his
regime, if only to produce a
sacrificial lamb and to
demonstrate his earnest in-
tent in dealing with his coun-
try's crippled economy.
In addition, he is now feel-
ing the chilly breeze of rapid-
ly changing -conditions
abroad — changes over which
he has no control but which
are nevertheless having a
serious effect both on his posi-
tion within the Arab world
and on his relationship with
his closest superpower ally,
the Soviet Union.
For a start, his alliance
with the Iranian mullahs un-
til very recently gave Syria a
pivotal role as the conduit
through which other Arab
leaders — and Western states
— communicated with the
regime in Teheran.
Since the internationaliza-
tion of the Gulf War, however,
with both the Soviet Union
and the United States taking
a close and active interest in
its progress, Syria has lost its
monopoly on the link with
Iran and its importance in the
Arab world has been conse-
quently diminished.
On the question of an Arab-
Israeli settlement, Assad may
object to Jordan's secret deal
with Israeli Foreign Minister
Shimon Peres over an inter-
national conference, but this
will have little more than
rhetorical effect. It is widely
accepted that the peace pro-
cess has stalled and that any
fresh initiatives will have to
come from the superpowers.
"Besides," said one
observer, "whatever pro-
nouncements are made at the
summit, Hussein will be back
talking to the Israelis next
day."
Also in the Middle East
arena, Assad's objections
might ensure Egypt's con-
tinued official isolation from
the Arab world, but according
to observers, a host of Arab
states are lining up to restore
diplomatic relations with
Cairo, whatever the summit
does or does not decree.
Jordan has already done so,
and it is thought likely that
Algeria, Morocco, Iraq (which
has recently received impor-
tant military assistance from
Egypt) and other smaller Gulf
states are not far behind.
"It's just a matter of tactics,
timing and circumstances
before Egypt is legitimized
again," said one observer.
"Arab nervousness about Iran
has reached such levels that
many of the moderate states
are now prepared to flout the
Arab League's embargo on
recognition of Egypt."
Assad is also feeling the
aftershock of the new regime
in Moscow, where he was
treated to a public lecture by
Soviet leader Mikhail Gor-
bachev.
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