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Soviet Union to Remain an Unsettling Influence
By ALON BEN-MEIR
The Soviet Union will not
forsake any opportunity to
re-establish itself where it
once had influence (Egypt,
Sudan), or to support politi-
cal destabilization in any
country if that could con-
ceivably give it new politi-
cal leverage (as in Iran).
The Soviet Union's policy
in the Middle East, particu-
larly after the Six-Day War
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of 1967, has often seemed to
fluctuate in reaction to
domestic and international
situations, leaving a gen-
eral impression of inconsis-
tency. Despite the fact that
the Soviet Union cham-
pioned the Arab cause after
the devastating war of 1967
and came to demonstrate
her unequivocal support be-
fore and after the Yom Kip-
pur War of 1973, the rela-
tionship between the Soviet
Union and the Arab states
in general has clearly deter-
iorated since 1967.
The Soviet's loss of grace
in the eyes of the Arab
states was precipitated only
in part by an imaginative
U.S. policy during the Kis-
singer era. More impor-
tantly, it was the Soviet
Union which failed, first, to
understand the Arab men-
tality and cultural back-
ground, and second, to
reconcile its own domestic
and international political
considerations with con-
tinuing support for the Arab
cause.
The USSR's internal
social and economic
difficulties, and its desire
to retain "detente" with
the U.S., often compelled
the Soviet Union to
temporarily curtail its ac-
tivities in the Middle
East, activities primarily
designed to provoke
political uncertainties.
In addition, in the after-
math of the Israeli victory
in 1967, the Soviet Union
severed diplomatic rela-
tions with Israel and has not
restored them to date. Hav-
ing lost virtually all its
leverage over Israel, the
Soviet Union found itself
dependent on such Arab
states as Syria and Iraq to
maintain a posture in the
Middle East and unable to
take any initiative in the
region unless it was clearly
aimed against Israel.
The Soviet Union is not
likely to write off its vested
interest in Egypt, despite
continued tense relations
between the two countries.
The Soviet Union may not
go so far as to disrupt the
U.S. effort to bring Egypt
and Israel closer, but it does
intend to have a voice in the
process and substance of a
final settlement.
As a "great power" the
Soviet Union will not hesi-
tate to make new overtures
toward Egypt when the
opportunity arises. A
change in the Egyptian
leadership or a complete col-
lapse of the U.S. peace effort
would provide such an
opportunity.
The relationship be-
tween the Soviet Union
and Syria has also suf-
fered reverses. The civil
war in Lebanon found
the Syrians and the
Soviets backing different
sides, and by June 1976
the Soviet Union was
holding President Assad
of Syria responsible for
the escalation of the con-
flict in Lebanon and
overtly supporting the
PLO. The result was a se-
vere blow to Moscow-
Damascus relations and
a growing complexity in
Syria's relations with
other countries, espe-
cially Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, Syria will
continue to look to the
Soviet Union to defend
Syria's cause against Israel.
By the same token, Syria, as
do the rest of the confronta-
tion states, sees in the U.S.
the prime mover without
whom no peace with Israel
is likely to occur.
Soviet relations with the
other confrontation states,
Jordan and Lebanon, re-
main minimal, and Soviet
relations with Iraq, which is
not a party to the negotia-
tions, have also lost their
warmth. When the Soviet
Union, at enormous profit,
resold Iraqi oil which was
intended for domestic
Soviet consumption, con-
siderable resentment was
created in Iraq and
elsewhere in the Arab
states.
The relationship of the
Soviet Union with the PLO
and the more radical re-
gimes of Algeria, Libya and
Somalia remains precarious
at best, while the Sudan has
followed the Egyptian
example.
tinue to bring political in-
stability and uncertainties
to the region. Soviet support
for an Arab-Israeli peace
will continue only to the ex-
tent that the Soviet Union's
interests are being served,
either because of certain
concessions it extracts from
the U.S. or political advan-
tages it gains.
I reiterate: the Soviets
will not hesitate to intro-
duce new destabilizing ele-
ments the moment peace
between the Arab states
and Israel begins to assume
a lasting character, since
such a development might
make the Soviet Union's
presence unnecesary.
In the past, the. Soviet-
Arab relationship was
primarily sustained by the
constant state of war in the
Middle East. Once this ele-
ment is removed, there will
be no compelling reason for
the confrontation states to
actively seek Soviet sup-
port.
The moment the tr
Soviets outlived their
usefulness in Egypt,
Sudan and Somalia, they
were hastily expelled
from those countries. The
Russians are well aware
that a continuation of
tense and unstable rela-
tions between Israel and
the Arab states, and
among the Arab states
themselves, is the best
guarantee that their
influence and presence
will continue to carry
weight in the Middle
East.
The Soviets, for strategic
reasons, need very much to
remain an integral part of
the Middle East scene. For
this reason, peace and sta-
bility which may run con-
trary to the Soviets' long-
range interests, will not be
encouraged by them.
Wishing The Entire Community
A JOYOUS
HANUKA
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With Gage"
While the Soviet Union
is unable to impose peace
in the Middle East, it is
capable of disrupting the
attempts of the U.S. for a
peaceful solution. For
this reason, the U.S.
hopes to minimize, but
not eliminate, Soviet in-
volvement in the peace
process.
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