THE DETROIT tWiSH NEWS YOUR WEDDINGivil BAR fA1TZVA LBU FINER IN ER WILL BE WHEN PHOTOGRAPHED BY W AND ASSOCIATES 357-1010 Soviet Union to Remain an Unsettling Influence By ALON BEN-MEIR The Soviet Union will not forsake any opportunity to re-establish itself where it once had influence (Egypt, Sudan), or to support politi- cal destabilization in any country if that could con- ceivably give it new politi- cal leverage (as in Iran). The Soviet Union's policy in the Middle East, particu- larly after the Six-Day War FENBY— STEIN TALENT AGENCY 31455 Northwestern Hwy.. Farmington Hills, MI 48018 (313) 855-1400 afapp9 g doyous alanuka sandy friedman photography 968-0808 candids • movies • portraits PERFECT HOLIDAY GIFT n oo10 'off DeCenilit 22: 1918 55 Excalibuti Pen & Pencil Sets by Pentei featuring the SMOOTH! EXPRESSIVE! Rolling Writer • Liquid ink rolls on for expressive writing • Harder — more durable — than a fiber tip • Smoother than a ball-point and makes carbons, too.! Silver, Gold or Black & Gold pencils and pens sold separately offer good thru 12/31/78 modern Office, INC 31535 Southfield Rd. between 13 & 14 Mile Hours: Mon-Fri 8-5 Sat 9-12 • 642-5600 of 1967, has often seemed to fluctuate in reaction to domestic and international situations, leaving a gen- eral impression of inconsis- tency. Despite the fact that the Soviet Union cham- pioned the Arab cause after the devastating war of 1967 and came to demonstrate her unequivocal support be- fore and after the Yom Kip- pur War of 1973, the rela- tionship between the Soviet Union and the Arab states in general has clearly deter- iorated since 1967. The Soviet's loss of grace in the eyes of the Arab states was precipitated only in part by an imaginative U.S. policy during the Kis- singer era. More impor- tantly, it was the Soviet Union which failed, first, to understand the Arab men- tality and cultural back- ground, and second, to reconcile its own domestic and international political considerations with con- tinuing support for the Arab cause. The USSR's internal social and economic difficulties, and its desire to retain "detente" with the U.S., often compelled the Soviet Union to temporarily curtail its ac- tivities in the Middle East, activities primarily designed to provoke political uncertainties. In addition, in the after- math of the Israeli victory in 1967, the Soviet Union severed diplomatic rela- tions with Israel and has not restored them to date. Hav- ing lost virtually all its leverage over Israel, the Soviet Union found itself dependent on such Arab states as Syria and Iraq to maintain a posture in the Middle East and unable to take any initiative in the region unless it was clearly aimed against Israel. The Soviet Union is not likely to write off its vested interest in Egypt, despite continued tense relations between the two countries. The Soviet Union may not go so far as to disrupt the U.S. effort to bring Egypt and Israel closer, but it does intend to have a voice in the process and substance of a final settlement. As a "great power" the Soviet Union will not hesi- tate to make new overtures toward Egypt when the opportunity arises. A change in the Egyptian leadership or a complete col- lapse of the U.S. peace effort would provide such an opportunity. The relationship be- tween the Soviet Union and Syria has also suf- fered reverses. The civil war in Lebanon found the Syrians and the Soviets backing different sides, and by June 1976 the Soviet Union was holding President Assad of Syria responsible for the escalation of the con- flict in Lebanon and overtly supporting the PLO. The result was a se- vere blow to Moscow- Damascus relations and a growing complexity in Syria's relations with other countries, espe- cially Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, Syria will continue to look to the Soviet Union to defend Syria's cause against Israel. By the same token, Syria, as do the rest of the confronta- tion states, sees in the U.S. the prime mover without whom no peace with Israel is likely to occur. Soviet relations with the other confrontation states, Jordan and Lebanon, re- main minimal, and Soviet relations with Iraq, which is not a party to the negotia- tions, have also lost their warmth. When the Soviet Union, at enormous profit, resold Iraqi oil which was intended for domestic Soviet consumption, con- siderable resentment was created in Iraq and elsewhere in the Arab states. The relationship of the Soviet Union with the PLO and the more radical re- gimes of Algeria, Libya and Somalia remains precarious at best, while the Sudan has followed the Egyptian example. tinue to bring political in- stability and uncertainties to the region. Soviet support for an Arab-Israeli peace will continue only to the ex- tent that the Soviet Union's interests are being served, either because of certain concessions it extracts from the U.S. or political advan- tages it gains. I reiterate: the Soviets will not hesitate to intro- duce new destabilizing ele- ments the moment peace between the Arab states and Israel begins to assume a lasting character, since such a development might make the Soviet Union's presence unnecesary. In the past, the. Soviet- Arab relationship was primarily sustained by the constant state of war in the Middle East. Once this ele- ment is removed, there will be no compelling reason for the confrontation states to actively seek Soviet sup- port. The moment the tr Soviets outlived their usefulness in Egypt, Sudan and Somalia, they were hastily expelled from those countries. The Russians are well aware that a continuation of tense and unstable rela- tions between Israel and the Arab states, and among the Arab states themselves, is the best guarantee that their influence and presence will continue to carry weight in the Middle East. The Soviets, for strategic reasons, need very much to remain an integral part of the Middle East scene. For this reason, peace and sta- bility which may run con- trary to the Soviets' long- range interests, will not be encouraged by them. Wishing The Entire Community A JOYOUS HANUKA "Measure Quality With Gage" While the Soviet Union is unable to impose peace in the Middle East, it is capable of disrupting the attempts of the U.S. for a peaceful solution. For this reason, the U.S. hopes to minimize, but not eliminate, Soviet in- volvement in the peace process. 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