War Traumas Factors in Israel's Election
By DAVID LANDAU
JTA Jerusalem
Correspondent
JERUSALEM (JTA)—How
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will the extreme trauma of
the war affect Israel politi-
cally? The election date has
now been finally set for Dec.
31 and the war in retrospect
will obviously be the main
issue before the voter. At
present most pundits are
convinced that the Likud
will make substantial gains
at the expense of the ruling
Labor Alignment. There are
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even serious analysts who
are thinking in terms of an
actual change in government
— which would be the first
ever for Israel.
Likud would have to ham-
mer away tirelessly at the
intelligence mis-assessment
which no less an authority
than U. S. Secretary of State
Henry A. Kissinger has con-
firmed occurred in Israel be-
fore the war. Opposition
leader Menahem Begin has
already said in the Knesset
that it is the politicians and
not just the army who must
bear responsibility for mis-
assessments.
Another important — per-
haps even trump — card
which Likud will have to
play wisely will be Arik
Sharon, the dashing general
whose popularity will soar
even higher as a result of
this war. It was he who,
scarcely out of uniform this
summer, molded the Likud
out of three feuding factions
— in the face of reluctance
and even some hostility on
the part of those parties'
leaders. Will Likud leaders
— and especially Begin — be
prepared to cash in on Arik's
popularity, even at the ex-
pense of their own images?
Will they assign to him the
central role in Likud which
he must have if the party is
to attract more voters of his
own sabra mold?
The third condition of
Likud's success is not in
Begin's hands: it is the ex-
tent to which the Labor
Party itself will tear itself
apart in post-war recrimina-
tions and fault-finding.
If the attack by Justice
Minister Yaakov Shimshon
Shapiro against Defense
Minister Moshe Dayan is
anything to judge by, "the
wars of the Jews" within the
Labor Party are going to be
bitter and virulent indeed —
and the profit will be purely
Likud's. Begin can be relied
upon to keep the pot boiling
with constant references to
what went wrong during the
"ten days of penitence."
Dayan has many, many
enemies within Labor who
would not hesitate to drive
him out. Whether he goes or
not will depend on how far
Premier Golda Meir and
Finance Minister Pinhas
Sapir will go to protect and
defend him. Until now they
seem solid enough. But fast
changing events on the home
and overseas fronts could
change their attitudes.
If Dayan goes, Chaim
Barley (and 'not Itzhak
Rabin) will be put up by
Labor as future defense
minister.
There is another possible
scenario against which we
can anticipate the elections:
that the present government
will have had to make cru-
cial political decisions before
the polls. At the pace of
Kissinger-prodded diplomacy
this is by no means beyond
the realm of possibility. In
that case the country will be
judging not only the govern-
ment's military responsibil-
ity and actions before and
during the war, but also its
performance at the nego-
tiating table. Whatever the
eventual backdrop, the elec-
tions in December are sure
to be the most dramatic, and
perhaps the most bitterly
fought, in Israel's short his-
tory.
I have sworn upon the altar
of God eternal hostility
against every, form of tyranny
over the mind of man.
—Thomas Jefferson.
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