November 22, 1981 (vol. 92, iss. 64) • Page Image 1
…Forecast numbers don't a By PAMELA KRAMER Making economic forecasts is a lot like making weather predictions: sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And some economics professors joke about the seemingly arbitrary nature of economic analysis; if you want to avoid a roadblock, just assume it away. OF COURSE, there is a lot more to economic theory than that. A number of economists disagree with basic prin- ciples of the econometric model used ...…