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Thursday, July 23, 2020
The Michigan Daily — michigandaily.com
SPORTS
Questions to answer with Big Ten-only schedule
For months — really, since
the
NCAA
Men’s
Basketball
Tournament
was
canceled
on
March 12 — it’s been clear that this
upcoming college football season
would be anything but normal.
And on Thursday afternoon, the
Big Ten gave the first glimpse at
what abnormal could look like for
its 14 members, announcing that
fall sports will be contested entirely
in-conference, if they happen at all.
“If the Conference is able to
participate in fall sports based
on medical advice, it will move to
Conference-only schedules in those
sports,” the conference said in a
statement. “Details for these sports
will be released at a later date, while
decisions on sports not listed above
will continue to be evaluated. By
limiting competition to other Big
Ten institutions, the Conference will
have the greatest flexibility to adjust
its own operations throughout the
season and make quick decisions in
real-time based on the most current
evolving medical advice and the
fluid nature of the pandemic.
“This decision was made following
many
thoughtful
conversations
over several months between the
Big Ten Council of Presidents and
Chancellors, Directors of Athletics,
Conference Office staff, and medical
experts including the Big Ten Task
Force
for
Emerging
Infectious
Diseases and the Big Ten Sports
Medicine Committee.”
Of course, the Big Ten’s decision
today may not be its decision
tomorrow — a lesson ingrained back
in March, when every day came
with a new announcement until it
all came crumbling down less than
a week after the first dominos began
to fall. But for now, the conference’s
plan is to play an undisclosed
number
of
conference
games
against
undisclosed
opponents
on an undisclosed schedule. It’s a
plan designed for fluidity, which
inherently lends itself to more
questions than answers.
So, here are some questions and
thoughts to consider as the dust
settles on the Big Ten’s plan:
The word “if” is carrying a lot of
weight
The very first sentence of the
Big Ten’s statement reads, “If the
Conference is able to participate in
fall sports based on medical advice,
it will move to Conference-only
schedules in those sports.”
That’s no small caveat. New daily
COVID-19 cases are rising week-
over-week in 45 states, including all
11 states with Big Ten schools. And
while no Big Ten state is in the top 10
in new cases this week — leaving it
in a better position than every other
Power Five conference — there have
still been 5,925 cases per day this
week in Big Ten states. That’s more
than all but five other countries. It
also means that the likelihood of
football season happening at all is
dwindling by the day.
Just
take
Jim
Harbaugh’s
statement yesterday.
“My thoughts would be, it’s a
different conversation if there’s no
students on campus,” Harbaugh
said. “If students are on campus,
then my personal belief as a parent
of a daughter who would also be on
campus that this is a safe place.”
That conversation could become
the norm in the coming weeks.
While Michigan remains committed
to having some in-person instruction
in the fall, dozens of other schools
have begun to move in the other
direction. That includes Harvard
and Princeton, two schools that
were among the leaders in moving
online in the spring. It also includes
Rutgers,
potentially
eliminating
one scheduled opponent from the
Wolverines’ docket.
So while the Big Ten’s statement
today indicates it hopes to hold fall
sports, the reality is far less rosy.
But even if the season does happen
in some capacity, there are plenty of
questions to answer, including…
What happens to the postseason?
The Big Ten isn’t the only
conference to reportedly be moving
to a fully in-conference schedule,
with the ACC and Pac-12 both doing
the same, according to multiple
reports. And considering the rapid
escalation of new cases in Florida
and Texas, it seems likely that the
SEC and Big 12 will soon follow suit.
Through November, that could
lend itself to a season that looks
relatively normal. But the College
Football Playoff, unlike the 2012
BCS
National
Championship,
isn’t contested within individual
conferences.
Neither
are
bowl
games.
And while bowl games could
be canceled without harming the
integrity of the season, the same
can’t be said of the CFP. During the
last pandemic on this scale in 1918,
no traditional bowl games were
held and there was no consensus
national champion. It’s hard to
imagine following that blueprint
with the financial and competitive
implications of modern-day college
football.
But any method of crowning a
national champion means playing
non-conference games, even if it’s
just three games between four teams
in early January. And the feasibility
of that is hazy at best, especially with
some schools taking an extended
winter break to avoid heavy flu
season.
What is the financial impact
of canceled ‘buy games’ for small
schools?
The
Wolverines
have
three
canceled
non-conference
games.
One of those is the first leg of a
home-and-home with Washington.
Regardless of whether that game is
ever made up, the Huskies will be
fine financially, both because of their
operating budget and because that
game wasn’t constructed primarily
as a financial agreement.
The same can’t be said of Ball
State and Arkansas State.
The Wolverines were slotted
to pay Ball State $975,000. The
Arkansas State game was even
pricier, at $1.8 million — a contract
that included a clause accounting for
“an act of God.” That likely means
Michigan will be able to get out of
paying both Ball State and Arkansas
State to help mitigate its own
financial losses.
Small schools such as Ball State
and Arkansas State, though, don’t
have the massive television contracts
and booster donations to soften a
multi-million dollar hit, especially
when they’re already losing six
games of gate revenue.
What happens to Notre Dame?
On the opposite end of the FBS
spectrum from Ball State and
Arkansas State, we have Notre
Dame. The Fighting Irish, with their
$150 million contract with NBC, will
be fine financially.
But if every conference limits
itself to in-conference games, what
becomes of the nation’s foremost
independent?
The answer, as of right now,
seems to be that the Irish will be
looped into the ACC’s conference
games. Like everything else, though,
that plan is in a state of limbo. And
even if it holds, it could have long-
term ramifications for Notre Dame,
the ACC and the Big Ten, causing the
Irish to continue their recent drift
from the Big Ten toward the ACC.
In the short term, Notre Dame
will only have to reschedule its
Oct. 3 game with Wisconsin — an
unexpected benefit of its recent
move to only playing one Big Ten
opponent per season.
How will conference schedules
unfold?
According to multiple reports, the
most likely scenario for the Big Ten
is that teams will move to playing
10 conference games, up from the
normally-scheduled
nine.
That
alteration, though, could manifest
itself in a number of different ways.
The biggest issue could come
if Rutgers — or any other school
— decides it’s unsafe to play while
the rest of the conference goes on
as planned. What, in that scenario,
would Michigan do on Nov. 14 when
it’s scheduled to travel to Piscataway
while the rest of the Big Ten is busy
with
their
previously-scheduled
games?
And then there’s the problem
of figuring out which schools will
face each other in their 10th games,
if that proposal comes to pass. The
easy solution would be to add one
team from the opposite division
and call it a day. But the conference
may decide to re-shuffle its schedule
to minimize travel. On Oct. 3, for
example, Minnesota is scheduled
to travel to Maryland, an 1100-mile
trip. The conference could cancel
those games and attempt to match
East division teams to their nearest
West counterparts, and vice versa.
Even if all of those issues are
resolved, conferences will still have
to decide when these games are
to be played. Most Big Ten games
begin Week 4, after a trio of non-
conference games. But there are
some exceptions, such as Indiana’s
Week 1 trip to Wisconsin.
So will all conference games be
moved into a coordinated 11-week
block, giving each team a bye? And if
so, when would that block be?
The schedule could run from late
September to the weekend after
Thanksgiving, but many schools
are moving to remote classes after
Thanksgiving. Alternatively, it could
be moved up a week to avoid having
athletes on campus when no other
students are — a moral line the Big
Ten might not want to cross. If the
conference Championship Game
remains in place, the schedule
could move forward by two weeks,
creating a quandary on the other end
as athletes rush to get game-ready in
an abbreviated offseason.
Whatever the Big Ten decides,
though, one thing is clear: today’s
decision is only the beginning of the
conference’s troubles.
THEO MACKIE
Managing Sports Editor
ALEC COHEN/Daily
Athletic director Warde Manuel and the Big Ten still have a lot of questions to answer after conference-only decision.