1
0,704 votes. 28 years. In 2016,
presidential
candidate
Donald
Trump became the first Republican
in 28 years to win Michigan — changing
electoral history with 10,704 votes, a
0.3 percent margin of victory. From a
battleground state to a near “gimme” for
Democrats, Michigan has come to the
front and center of the 2020 presidential
election, with the University of Michigan
in tow. But before the fanfare of a debate
at the University in October and Election
Day in November, each party needs a
nominee.
The Republican nominee is a foregone
conclusion: It will be President Donald
Trump, presuming he is not convicted in
the Senate after being impeached by the
U.S. House of Representatives. Trump
will be the first president to stand in a
general election after being impeached,
as President Andrew Johnson failed
to win his party’s nomination after
his impeachment and President Bill
Clinton
was
term-limited.
Johnson’s
Republicans and Clinton’s Democrats
subsequently lost the presidency. As
of early December, Trump enjoys an
89
percent
approval
rating
among
Republicans, and his reelection bid
is widely supported, with some state
Republican
parties
canceling
their
primary. The University’s chapter of
College Republicans declined to comment
about their organization’s plans for the
primary election.
The real political battle in Michigan
will play out on the Democratic side. On
March 10, Michigan voters will head to
the polls and ask their polling station staff
for either a Republican or Democratic
ballot. Michigan is an open primary state,
so voters do not need to be a registered
Democrat or Republican to vote in the
primary. With 147 delegates up for grabs
and general election hopes hinging on it,
Michigan is a key target for candidates.
March 10 marks a week after “Super
Tuesday,” where 15 states and territories
hold their primary or caucus. Michigan
votes in a “mini-Super Tuesday” along
with Idaho, Mississippi, North Dakota,
Missouri and Washington.
Democratic candidates have to acquire
1,991 delegates, a simple majority, to
secure the party’s nomination. But states
are not winner-take-all. The Democratic
National Committee awards delegates
proportionally based on votes, so second,
third and even fourth place candidates
can pick up delegates. This means silver
and bronze medals matter, but candidates
need to pick up at least 15 percent of
the vote to win delegates, which ideally
entails going all over the state to try
to pick up votes. In the 2016 Michigan
primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won
with 49.8 percent of the vote and received
67 delegates, compared to candidate
and former Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton’s 63 delegates for winning 48.3
percent of the vote.
Candidates aren’t solely focusing on
Detroit and its suburbs, the most populous
blue area of Michigan, so Democratic
candidates are expected to make their
way to Ann Arbor, another Democratic
stronghold. In 2016, Ann Arbor saw the
likes of Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., then-
candidate
Hillary
Clinton’s
running
mate, on the Diag. Sanders held a rally
at the UMMA. Even President Barack
Obama came to speak at the Ray Fisher
Stadium the day before the election,
urging students and locals to vote for
Clinton.
The University of Michigan I knew in
my first year, 2016, had famous politicians
stopping in weekly and canvassers on
every corner asking if you’re registered to
vote. Then, two months into my freshman
year, Donald Trump was elected president
of the United States. Emotions ran high
on campus — a vigil was held on the Diag
the following day and even University
President Mark Schlissel sent an email
regarding the results.
About
45
percent
of
University
students voted in 2016, while 50.4 percent
voted at all other reported institutions.
In 2018, the University touted the
midterm election voter turnout with the
headline “U-M student voter turnout
triples in 2018.” In reality, turnout tripled
compared to the 2014 midterms, when
an embarrassing 14 percent of students
voted. The 2018 turnout — 41 percent —
was still less than the 2016 turnout, but
did outpace the national average. Shortly
after Trump’s election, the Big Ten
Conference created the “Big Ten Voting
Challenge” between the 14 member
schools to register more students to
vote and encourage students to exercise
their voting rights. Two winners will
be crowned after the 2020 presidential
election, both the school with the highest
turnout and the school with the largest
voter growth.
The timing of the challenge begs the
question: Why did this challenge come
after 2016? The abysmal voter turnout for
the 2014 midterms elections across the
Big Ten didn’t spark a voting initiative.
Voter turnout has always been an issue
in the U.S., but only after the election of
such an anti-establishment figure did our
institutions of higher learning try to do
something about it.
With weeks still to go before the
Michigan primary, the latest poll from
January has former Vice President Joe
Biden winning the state with 29.9 percent
of the vote and Sanders finishing in
second with 19.9 percent. Both would
pick up delegates in this scenario, and
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Ma., polling at
16.2 percent, would meet the 15 percent
threshold
and
therefore
qualify
for
delegates. In 2016, Sanders pulled off a
narrow victory over Clinton, winning 49.8
percent of the vote, including winning
Washtenaw County by about 8,000 votes.
If Biden does win Michigan come March,
one can expect Washtenaw County’s
winner to differ from the statewide
winner.
T
he
University
of
Michigan’s
chapter of College Democrats is
currently laying the groundwork
for the eventual nominee and will not
endorse a candidate in the primary.
“College Democrats does not endorse
any candidate during a Democratic
primary race. However, we are still heavily
involved in this upcoming election cycle,”
Camille Mancuso, communications chair
of College Democrats, wrote in an email
interview. “So far this year, we have
engaged in issue advocacy, co-hosted
debate watch parties with some of the
Presidential campaigns on campus and
registered hundreds of student voters.”
While the chapter is focused on the
general election, some of its members are
involved in specific campaigns, like many
other students on campus.
L
SA junior Arden Shapiro serves
as a campus corps leader for
Students
for
Bernie.
With
a leadership group of 10 people, the
organization
works
with
Sanders’
national campaign to coordinate efforts
on campus. Shapiro and other group
leaders participated in “Students for
Bernie Summer School,” an online-based
program that teaches organizing and
campaigning for Sanders. Utilizing an
email list of more than 200, the group
canvasses and engages in “friend to friend
organizing.” Shapiro found herself drawn
to Sanders’ “unwavering” advocacy for
social justice and his plans to address
climate change.
“I have always been drawn to Senator
Sanders because I feel he is a fearless
and unwavering advocate for justice and
equality,” Shapiro said. “...The issue of
climate is particularly important to me,
and I feel that Senator Sanders is the only
candidate who understands the urgency
of revolutionizing our economy to combat
climate change and protecting those most
vulnerable to environmental injustice.”
Sanders
recently
topped
an
Iowa
poll
that
notably
has
South
Bend
Mayor Pete Buttigieg slipping to third.
Warren, who finished second in the
poll and is ideologically closest to
Sanders, accused Sanders of “sending his
volunteers out to trash me,” in reference
to a released Politico report. Sanders’
campaign
has
not
commented,
but
Sanders himself praised Warren and said
the document did not reflect his opinion.
LSA junior Jordyn Houle is one of four
campus organizers for Warren at the
University. In an email interview, Houle
explained that her support of Warren is
rooted in Warren’s focus on the need for
fundamental change.
“I support Elizabeth Warren because
she has a bold, progressive vision for
our country as well as the detailed
plans necessary to make that vision a
reality…” Houle wrote. “Senator Warren
understands that systemic changes, such
as a Green New Deal and universal free
public college, are necessary in order to
create an America where everybody can
live a fulfilling life.”
Students for Warren at the University
is directly affiliated with the national
campaign. With about 40 students at
weekly meetings, the group canvasses
for Warren, registers voters and helps
students with absentee ballots. The
group also runs a listserv with nearly 300
members.
Warren
entered
the
presidential
race the earliest of the frontrunners,
announcing an exploratory committee on
New Year’s Eve 2018. In early February
2019, she formalized her run, and that
November, Warren topped a New York
Times/Siena College poll of Iowa. Since
then, however, her support has waned in
the first caucus state.
LSA
freshman
Andrew
Schaeffler
helped co-found Students for Biden at the
University. The group recently took over
Biden’s campaign Instagram account,
receiving hundreds of thousands of views
on their efforts to elect Biden. Schaeffler
is drawn to Biden’s education plan as well
as his political track record and pragmatic
approach.
“What really draws me to Vice President
Biden is a history of action and reasonable
progressive policies that can be enacted,”
Schaeffler said. “I believe that his
policies, while they might not be the most
far-reaching, the most expansive, they’re
the ones that can actually happen. When
you look at what candidate can not only
produce results but has produced results,
by far and away I believe that Joe Biden is
definitely that candidate.”
Electability is also on Schaeffler’s mind,
with Biden beating Trump by at least 5
percentage points nationally in CNN,
Fox News and Quinnipiac polls from
December.
However,
Biden
suffers
from a “young person problem,” with
an October poll in Iowa finding that 2
percent of 18-29-year-olds support the
former vice president.
“As much as some people, in general,
stray away from the electability argument
when you look at polls in swing states …
Joe Biden is the candidate that can reach
across the aisle to voters who are both
Republican and Independent, and I value
that a lot in really anyone…” Schaeffler
said.
While
Biden
has
a
track
record
of
bipartisanship,
Congressional
Republicans have shown no indication of
working with a Democratic president.
Students for Biden plans to do “dorm
storms” in residence halls, where students
knock on doors to canvass for Biden. With
about two dozen students involved in
Students for Biden, the group also plans to
table in Mason Hall and drum up support.
LSA senior Jessica Kosticak founded
the student group supporting Buttigieg
for president. Armed with a Twitter
account “Umich for Pete Buttigieg” with
a few hundred followers and a listserv
with about 30 students, Kosticak is just
getting started in politics, having studied
biomolecular science during her four
years at the University.
“There’s been a huge learning curve for
me getting involved with founding this
organization and being more politically
active, which is great, I hadn’t expected
that coming into college,” Kosticak said.
“… It definitely has been interesting
for me to kind of learn a lot more about
the political process and supporting a
candidate, how that looks online and then
how that looks in person.”
Buttigieg began gaining traction in
the spring following a CNN town hall in
March at South by Southwest. With his
rise over the following months, Kosticak
found herself drawn to his calm demeanor
and his actionable policy proposals, such
as “Medicare for all who want it.”
“I was blown away with how articulate
he was — he reminded me kind of
(President) Obama in that way,” Kosticak
said. “He was able to express himself and
his ideas in a way that was just calm and
collected and I was drawn to that because
I think with the turmoil going on in
politics currently, that voice of reason is
what we need.”
Since his rise, Buttigieg has positioned
himself more moderately than some
expected, failing to pass some progressive
purity tests such as supporting Medicare-
for-all, swearing off big-money campaign
fundraisers and committing to the Green
New Deal (Buttigieg has proposed a less
aggressive version of the Green New Deal).
These divisions were front and center at
the December Democratic debate, where
Warren and Sanders drew a stark contrast
between their progressive policies and
Buttigieg’s moderate stance, but Kosticak
plans to support the nominee no matter
what.
“My hope is that after the Michigan
primary and all the primaries, we settle
on a nominee that all of the student
groups and everyone, Democrats across
the country, will be able to unite behind
the nominee because we have bigger fish
to fry…” Kosticak said.
Engineering senior Justin Zhao is
actively involved in tech entrepreneur
Andrew Yang’s campaign for president.
Zhao is a member of “Yang Gang Ann
Arbor,” serving as the group’s event
coordinator.
Referring
to
Yang
as
“Andrew,” Zhao is drawn to Yang’s
expertise in dealing with technology.
Zhao referenced the race in artificial
intelligence with China, data privacy
issues and the government’s old fashioned
approach to technology and its future.
“Right now our government is super
behind on technology, I mean you saw
the Facebook hearing with (CEO) Mark
Zuckerberg,” Zhao said. “He is the best
equipped to deal with technology and
technology regulations.”
Zhao
also
likes
Yang’s
seemingly
bipartisan, evidence-based approach to
politics. One of Yang’s slogans is “Not
left. Not right. Forward.” Zhao pointed to
Yang’s use of data and math in his policy
platform as a draw.
“He is very unifying because he is not
ideological and you know he’s all about the
math and then he’s all about solutions,”
Zhao said. “It’s an ideas-based campaign
so he’s all about solutions, data, math and
those things are bipartisan. It’s not like
a Democrat (sic) thing or a Republican
thing.”
With about 30 active members, the
group’s campaign efforts have thus far
included tabling and chalking sidewalks,
and the group’s continued campaigning is
dependent on Yang’s results and prospects
in the early primaries.
I
t
bears
repeating:
Anyone
registered to vote in the state of
Michigan can vote in the primary.
Show up to your polling place, ask for
a Republican or Democratic ballot and
cast your vote for the nominee you want.
If the departure of Sen. Cory Booker,
D-N.J., is any indication, this race is going
to change leading up to March 10. In the
meantime, there are debates (including
one this past Tuesday), Iowa caucuses,
the New Hampshire primary, Super
Tuesday and more. There’s a good chance
that some of the candidates will have
dropped out by then, taking their student
groups with them. But for now, it’s all up
for grabs here in Ann Arbor and at the
University. Winners and losers abound,
these presidential primaries will take no
prisoners.
Editor’s note: Sanders, Warren, Biden,
Buttigieg and Yang were featured due to
the presence of a student group on campus.
Other
2020
presidential
candidates
did not have significant University of
Michigan student efforts behind their
campaigns.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 // The Statement
4B
5B
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 // The Statement
ILLUSTRATION BY JONATHAN WALSH
BY FINNTAN STORER, STATEMENT CORRESPONDENT
2020 Election:
U-M student
groups gear up
for Michigan
primary
ILLUSTRATION BY SHERRY CHEN