8 — Friday, October 11, 2019
Sports
The Michigan Daily — michigandaily.com
Preview: What to watch for as Michigan takes on Illinois this Saturday
As noon approaches Saturday
afternoon,
you’ll
likely
find
yourself in front a TV.
You won’t quite know why,
with Oklahoma-Texas just a few
channels away, but you’ll be tuned
into No. 16 Michigan’s trip to
Illinois.
The Fighting Illini haven’t
eclipsed .500 since 2007 and
carry a three-game losing streak
that began with a 34-31 indignity
against Eastern Michigan nearly
a month ago. Tickets for their
season
finale
are
currently
going for $8 on StubHub, if you
need a sense of the fanbase’s
current enthusiasm. Their one
ostensible hope at the beginning
of the season, former Michigan
quarterback Brandon Peters, is
questionable with an upper-body
injury.
And yet, football season is
12 games, so you’ll be watching
anyway, eager to see whether the
Wolverines win by 20 or 30.
And when you do, you’ll want
something to keep your interest
after Michigan goes up multiple
scores. The Daily breaks down
what to watch for:
Michigan’s quarterback play
On the first play of Michigan’s
third drive against Iowa last
weekend, Shea Patterson dropped
back and unleashed a deep bomb.
Fifty-one yards downfield, Nico
Collins beat his defender on a
post route, catching the ball in
stride and taking the Wolverines
into the red zone for a second
consecutive drive.
That was with 10:30 left in the
first half. For the rest of the game,
Patterson completed just 12 of
20 passes for 94 yards, with no
touchdowns and an interception.
The result was the worst passer
rating of his Michigan career,
continuing a season in which he’s
down in nearly every statistical
category — except interceptions.
Then, Tuesday evening, Patterson
came out and said he’s content
with his play and that the
Wolverines’ offense — averaging
7.2 fewer points per game than
last season — is “right where we
want to be,” citing discrepancies
between the practice and game
products.
Saturday
against
Illinois,
Michigan will have its next
opportunity to translate that
product.
There’s a limit, of course, to
how much the Wolverines can
show against a team that ranks
98th in passing yards per attempt
allowed. Two weeks ago against
Rutgers, Patterson had his best
game of the season, seemingly
turning a corner before struggling
against Iowa.
Still,
Saturday
is
another
chance to show his ability to
perform in Josh Gattis’ offense
and build momentum going into
next week’s trip to No. 10 Penn
State.
The
running
game’s
effectiveness
Early in Michigan’s win over
Iowa, the Wolverines’ offense
found consistent success thanks
to a healthy run game. When
freshman running back Zach
Charbonnet punched into the end
zone to give Michigan a 10-0 lead,
he had five carries for 27 yards
and looked good doing it.
Pregame talk over an even
carry split between Charbonnet,
sophomore Hassan Haskins and
sophomore Christian Turner had
dissolved into Charbonnet’s day
and it was working.
Three hours later, a look down
at the stat sheet revealed the
Wolverines had just 3.6 yards
per carry. The scariest part is
that’s their highest average since
finishing with 5.2 in the season
opener against Middle Tennessee
State. Michigan’s yards per carry
in the four games since: 2.4, 2.1,
3.4, 3.6.
“I feel like in the run game,
explosive plays just come down to
hand placement,” said fifth-year
senior left tackle Jon Runyan.
“Whether it’s by a guard keeping
his block or myself or (right tackle
Jalen Mayfield) keeping our head
inside the defender or where best
we can find a seam.”
Against Illinois, the Wolverines
won’t need an efficient ground
game to stroll to an easy win. But
this is their last chance before
back-to-back games against Penn
State and No. 9 Notre Dame to
show they can be productive on
the ground and make life a little
easier for Patterson.
How Michigan’s run defense
holds up against Reggie Corbin
On the other side, Illinois has
had no such struggles with its
yards per carry. One of its few
bright spots over the past two
seasons has been fifth-year senior
running back Reggie Corbin.
In his first year as the Illini’s
starting running back a year ago,
Corbin burst onto the scene with
an incredible 8.5 yards per carry
in a nine-touchdown season. He
hasn’t quite reached those levels
this season, but still has 6.6 yards
per carry and two 130-yard games.
Last weekend, when Michigan
held Iowa to one yard on 30
carries (66 yards excluding sacks),
it was hailed as a bounce-back
performance for a unit that was
heavily criticized after giving up
359 rushing yards to Wisconsin
in a 35-14 loss. The difference,
though, is Iowa — despite running
a similar offense to the Badgers’ —
doesn’t have a running back like
Jonathan Taylor.
That’s not to say Corbin is
Taylor — no one in the Big Ten is.
But with redshirt junior defensive
tackle Michael Dwumfour in his
second game back from injury,
this is a prime opportunity for
Michigan’s run defense to show
that its improvement is real.
Can Dax Hill continue strong
performances?
Through three games, Daxton
Hill — Michigan’s prized five-
star freshman safety — was
conspicuously absent from the
Wolverines’ secondary.
Two
weeks
ago,
against
Rutgers, an injury to junior
J’Marick Woods gave Hill his
first shot at significant playing
time. He remained behind senior
Josh Metellus and junior Brad
Hawkins at safety, but the injury
allowed Hill to slot in when either
needed a play off.
Now, Hill has moved to the
top of the depth chart at nickel,
according to Jim Harbaugh.
Against Iowa, he played the role
well beyond a typical freshman’s
capabilities, notably breaking up
a fourth-down pass attempt on a
crossing route as the Hawkeyes
drove into Michigan territory late
in the second half with a chance
to tie.
“He had six tackles, he showed
up on the statline and taking
steps, taking strides like everyone
expected him to,” Harbaugh said.
“I think it’s been a very good
progression, seeing improvement
from him each week.”
With Woods now in his second
week back from injury, continued
strong performances from Hill
would likely indicate he’s moved
into third on the safety depth
chart in addition to his top spot at
nickel.
Score prediction
Despite
Michigan’s
recent
offensive struggles, it’s hard to see
the Wolverines losing to a team
that’s lost three straight games to
unranked opposition. Michigan
will be good enough on both sides
of the ball to avoid raising any
eyebrows while also failing to
placate any of the chief concerns
looming over this team.
Michigan, 34-14
How the ‘M’ defense bounced back
Two-and-a-half weeks ago,
Josh Metellus sat expressionless
behind a podium in Madison.
The
senior
safety
had
just played four of the most
embarrassing quarters of his
career, helpless as Wisconsin
beat up Michigan for 35 points
and 359 yards on the ground. A
defense that had faced another
round of losing its best talent
to the NFL was seemingly at its
breaking point.
“I think we pride ourselves on
being the best defense in college
football,” Metellus said that day.
“And these last couple weeks, we
haven’t shown that.”
Michigan
coach
Jim
Harbaugh knew as much. In
the days after that game, with
the whole team watching and
the whole room still feeling the
sting of the loss, he called out
the defensive line — the group
the Badgers physically exposed.
Harbaugh
wasn’t
angry,
at least not outwardly. The
message was simple: Step it up.
“He just challenged us as
football players, as competitors,”
said redshirt junior defensive
tackle Michael Dwumfour. “Just
challenged us in a great way.”
To
get
called
out
as
a
competitor by Harbaugh, a man
who often views everything
as a competition, is no small
deal. This, remember, is a coach
who tried to beat his players in
running up a nearby hill at San
Diego. He’s someone who, upon
arriving at Michigan, instituted
competition into every nook
and cranny of the program
— four-hour practices and a
“submarine” during fall camp,
practically cutting off contact
with the outside world.
For any issues you could point
to with Harbaugh, it’s hard to
believe any of his teams ever
struggled to fight. Certainly not
at Michigan. Unsurprisingly,
these issues didn’t last.
In
the
run-up
to
that
Wisconsin game, Brown talked
about the relief of playing a
more conventional team after
facing Army’s triple-option and
a 10-personnel-heavy Middle
Tennessee. At the time, it came
off as brash confidence. And in
the wake of the loss, it seemed
like that confidence was fleeting.
Now, after two more games
against relatively conventional
opponents,
with
Brown’s
defense ranked second in SP+, it
seems he simply jumped the gun
by a week or so.
Brown has been coaching
football since 1977, and he’s
spent most of that time as a
defensive coordinator. He has a
routine down to a science.
He starts preparing for a
given team about two weeks in
advance. He doesn’t like focusing
on one team before he’s played
another, but it’s a necessity of his
job. As part of that, he spends a
chunk of Sundays and Mondays
drawing out about 250 practice
cards for the scout team — by
hand. It helps him learn the
opposing scheme and how to
beat it. “Nobody else draws,”
Brown said. “... It’s a quirk.”
It’s a safe assumption to say
the disparity between cards
detailing Wisconsin’s, Rutgers’
and Iowa’s offenses were next
to nothing compared to what
Michigan dealt with for its first
three opponents. And it doesn’t
hurt that the defensive line
— in particular, Dwumfour —
has gotten healthier and more
confident.
A group that got pushed off
the ball every time the Badgers
handed it off turned Iowa
quarterback Nate Stanley into
a speed bag, peppering him to
the tune of eight sacks. The
Hawkeyes finished Saturday’s
game with a single rushing
yard. Defensive ends Aidan
Hutchinson and Kwity Paye,
tasked with the impossible job
of replacing Chase Winovich
and Rashan Gary, look like stars
in the making.
“He is unbelievable,” Brown
said of Hutchinson.
As for Paye?
“He is the best spread run
defender I’ve ever seen.
“Why do I say that? Cause
you can’t fool him. Zone read,
close out the zone, chase the
quarterback from the inside out.
Check mark.
“Bluff?
Now,
that
puller
comes back and instead of
him trying to kick you out, he
bypasses you. Breaks go on,
chase the quarterback from the
inside out. Check mark. He can
do all those things like that. It’s
uncanny.”
It’s one thing for Michigan
to perform at a high level. It’s
entirely another to do it against
Iowa, and another still to do it
in the way the Wolverines did.
Dominating the entire game
so clearly that a coach who,
two weeks earlier, called out
the line’s competitiveness in
front of the team, decided to go
conservative with the offense
late so the defense could win it
the game.
That
doesn’t
mean
there
aren’t still questions to answer
and better competition coming.
But for now, Michigan is right
back where it wants to be.
One of the best defenses in
college football.
Joe Milton waiting for his chance
Joe Milton wore a band on his
wrist when he faced the media
after the 2018 Spring Game —
the 6-foot-5 quarterback peering
down on a semicircle of reporters
gathered nearby.
“Just be you,” the wristband
read. It complemented regular
reminders in his phone connoting
the same message.
“I’m
just
being
me,”
he
explained. “That’s why I have these
wristbands. I’m just being me,
regardless. Competition, as well.
We all just compete. Having fun.”
The life of a backup quarterback
demands
that
kind
of
self-
reflection, coupled with a steadfast
belief
that
one
well-timed
opportunity could change the
course of your career.
Joe Milton’s chance is as close
as it’s ever been these days, having
meandered his way up the depth
chart by equal parts fortune and
persistence. Redshirt sophomore
Dylan McCaffery has yet to return
from
his
concussion
suffered
against Wisconsin, and as such,
Milton has inherited more reps,
both in practice and game. He
completed three of four passes in
an appearance against Rutgers,
tallying 59 passing yards and two
total touchdowns (one rushing). A
brief stint, sure, but an undeniably
encouraging one.
“It felt great, you know, just
getting the opportunity to show
what I have and show what I can
do for the team,” he said Tuesday.
“It just felt great.”
Milton’s
merits
are
visibly
obvious — an NFL frame, an arm
capable of chucking the football 85
yards, enough mobility to trouble
defenses. He contemplated taking
up baseball in the past and believes
he could step onto a mound and
throw 93 miles per hour on the
dot. His receivers in high school,
left with dislocated fingers, surely
wouldn’t question it. The raw
talent has always been there. It’s
what made him a consensus top-10
quarterback in the 2018 recruiting
class.
Still, the shortcomings in his
arsenal have always been just
as evident. Milton has never
completed more than 50 percent of
his passes in a single season, dating
back to his freshman year of high
school. His 35-to-19 touchdown-
to-interception ratio in high school,
while far from disastrous, falls well
short of the requisite production
for a top-flight recruit.
There were never any illusions
that he would be a guy who could
produce right away. As such, his
development
has
taken
place
largely away from the public eye,
confined inside the insulated walls
of Schembechler Hall. What is said
publicly, then, must be taken at
face-value.
For now, whether by sincerity or
necessity, the reviews are positive.
“He’s worked on (accuracy),”
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said
two weeks ago. “There’s different
ball flights, different appropriate
throws. Not everything is a line
drive fastball. There’s gotta be a lot
of elevation ... to make a catchable
ball for a runner. Joe’s responded
and is really working on it. It’s not
an easy thing to do.”
Milton
believes
all
that’s
standing in his way is opportunity.
He came to school keenly aware
of the need to improve accuracy, a
process he deemed “pretty hard”
due to his natural arm strength, but
one he’s worked tirelessly at.
When he came to campus,
Harbaugh
told
him
to
stop
watching the ball and keep his
focus on the receivers. That, he
says, has guided his maturation as
a passer rather than a thrower, a
crucial distinction any quarterback
can elucidate.
“I noticed that (I’d improved my
touch) when my coaches started
getting fired up,” Milton said.
“They started jumping when I put
the ball out there. That’s how I
know I improve. I know for myself
when I got better, then the ball just
dropped. I kind of just stopped
looking at the ball in the air so that
I know when it’s going to land or
when it’s not going to land.”
Added Harbaugh, who has
seen
dozens
of
quarterbacks
develop in his time: “We can all
think of quarterbacks throughout
the history of football that never
did be able to get, to understand
throwing with touch or throwing
with the fastball when needed
the appropriate throw for the
appropriate
down.
But
he’s
working really hard at it, and it’s
coming along really well. Definitely
has a lot of arm talent.
“It’s really important to him,
which is a must.”
Milton’s
true
moment
of
reckoning will likely arrive in the
spring and fall camp to come, when
the starting job will re-open with
senior Shea Patterson gone and
Harbaugh will inevitably declare
open competition.
Soon
thereafter,
a
true
meritocracy will yield a verdict —
and, ultimately, deduce whether
this developmental project was
successful.
When asked in the spring what
needed improvement, Milton said,
“moving my feet quicker and just
thinking faster.” Both issues, he
posited, that would be hammered
out with increased reps. He
believes that’s now happened, that
he’s ready if called upon.
“Everything else is fine,” Milton
said. “That’s pretty much what I
need to improve is my touch. I got
that done, now I’m just executing
plays.”
Executing plays. And waiting.
ETHAN SEARS
Managing Sports Editor
ALEC COHEN/Daily
Defensive coordinator Don Brown’s unit has improved in the last two weeks.
ALEXANDRIA POMPEI/Daily
Redshirt freshman quarterback Joe Milton has worked on his accuracy.
MAX MARCOVITCH
Managing Sports Editor
THEO MACKIE
Daily Sports Editor
ALEXANDRIA POMPEI/Daily
Senior quarterback Shea Patterson had the worst passer rating of his Michigan career against Iowa last week, though the Wolverines won, 10-3.