Why Michigan/Ohio State will win The Game
I
get it.
You look at the recent
history against Ohio State
— losing 13
of that last
14 matchups
— and you
think a loss
is inevitable.
Then, you see
the Michigan
football
team has to
rewrite that
history in
Columbus,
where it hasn’t won since 2000.
And it’ll try to do it against one
of the country’s best coaches,
with one of the country’s best
quarterbacks beside him.
A lackluster 31-20 win over
Indiana surely inspires more
concern than confidence about
beating the Buckeyes.
I ask you to do one thing:
forget all of it.
“It’s a different game, and
we’re going to make sure we’ll
handle our business,” said
senior running back Karan
Higdon. “They still have to play
us on Saturday. Nothing that
happened in the past matters at
this point.”
The rivalry game will be
different in more ways than one.
The Wolverines will beat Ohio
State. Michigan will claim sole
ownership of the Big Ten East
title.
What’s at stake is very
apparent. And the Wolverines
are approaching it with
measured responses.
“Everybody in the whole
entire country knows what this
week is,” said junior defensive
end Rashan Gary. “We know
what this week is, so we’re gonna
attack it. It’s been a whole year of
having a bad taste in our mouths.
We just gotta go out, prepare
the right way and go out there
Saturday and see what happens.”
The first, and most obvious
reason the tables will turn
this year is quarterback Shea
Patterson. John O’Korn was
abysmal in “The Game” last
season, sailing balls left and
right and throwing a game-
sealing interception facing
marginal pressure.
This season, the Buckeyes
rank 77th in passing yards
allowed per game (237.4), and
have struggled to contain
quarterbacks that the
Wolverines’ defense outright
punished like Nebraska’s
Adrian Martinez, Penn State’s
Trace McSorley and Indiana’s
Peyton Ramsey. Those three
quarterbacks all threw for at
least 260 yards and a touchdown
against them. Patterson is
the most accurate and mobile
quarterback Michigan has had
since Denard Robinson, the last
quarterback to beat Ohio State
back in 2011.
Patterson is also playing
behind an offensive line that
is significantly better than last
season’s, which allowed five
sacks on O’Korn. Saturday’s
game serves as a homecoming
for offensive line coach Ed
Warinner, who coached for the
Buckeyes from 2012-16, and he
will get to showcase his latest
work to his former team. The
loss of Ohio State defensive end
Joey Bosa, the likely No. 1 overall
pick in the NFL Draft, further
opens the door for an impactful
O-line performance.
The second reason,
conversely, is Buckeyes
quarterback Dwayne Haskins
and his offensive line. The
numbers don’t lie — Haskins
is third in the country in
passing yards per game, and 36
touchdowns. Haskins has also
been sacked just 13 times. But
the offensive line has been far
below average for the Buckeyes
in the run game — 54th in the
country in yards per game —
even with J.K. Dobbins and
Mike Weber in the backfield. In
other words, facing Michigan’s
top-ranked defense, Haskins
will have to throw.
Few quarterbacks have found
success this season against
the Wolverines. Immobile
quarterbacks like Haskins
haven’t fared any better.
And the only aspect of the
team worse than its offensive
line is its run defense.
Maryland’s Anthony
McFarland ran rampant on the
Buckeyes in a 52-51 shootout
(Yes, the same Maryland that
only dropped 10 points against
Michigan), registering 298 yards
and two touchdowns on just 21
carries.
Senior running back Karan
Higdon, who averages nearly
111 rushing yards per game, will
have a field day in Columbus.
So fire away with your takes:
“Jim Harbaugh can’t win the
big one.”
“Michigan will just choke.”
“They can’t win in Columbus.”
And they would all be wrong.
This isn’t about cliches or empty
narratives. The Wolverines
are unequivocally better than
the Buckeyes, who have rarely
looked impressive against the
same competition.
Michigan’s sole loss is a
one touchdown heartbreaker
at No. 3 Notre Dame in the
season opener. Purdue romped
Ohio State by four possessions,
and the Boilermakers hope to
become bowl eligible with a win
next week.
For Ohio State fans and
Michigan skeptics, harping on
the past is easy, but this time the
past will not matter.
“Just another game,”
Patterson said. “We understand
the tradition and the meaning
behind it, but we’re going to
attack it the same way we have
the past 10, 11 weeks. We know
they’re a good ball club at their
place, but we’re just going to
prepare and come out firing.”
And with coming out firing, a
win will follow.
Wolfe can be reached at
eewolfe@umich.edu or on
Twitter @ethanewolfe
S
aturday’s game will be the
biggest
Michi-
gan football
game in
at least 12
years. For
Ohio State,
it won’t even
approach the
top 10.
That’s not
to say the
Buckeyes
don’t care about Saturday’s
game; obviously, they do.
Instead, it is to say the pressure
will be disproportionately
slanted toward one side. The
line opened at Michigan -4, and
that’s properly indicative of
which team has looked better
all year.
But what, in the recent
history of Michigan football,
leads you to believe this
program is capable of handling
that pressure?
Take the 2016 game, for
example. Forget the JT
Barrett play for a moment. The
Wolverines entered the fourth
quarter up 17-14, then gained
a total of five yards, neglecting
every chance to put the game
away.
Take the 2012 game for
another. Michigan entered
halftime up 21-20. In the second
half Michigan failed to cross
midfield, turned the ball over
three times and didn’t score.
How about 2007? The
Wolverines came into the home
game having a chance to claim
the Big Ten East with a win,
then scored just 3 points all
afternoon.
Let’s revisit 2004. Michigan
was favored heading into a
matchup against an Ohio State
team that was 3-4 in conference
play. The Wolverines led 14-7
after the first quarter then got
their doors blown off — giving
up 27 unanswered points in a
blowout loss.
The Wolverines haven’t won
in Columbus since 2000 and
have beaten Ohio State just
three times since the turn of the
century. There’s a foundational
reason for that beyond “Ohio
State is usually better.” This
game has devolved into less of
a rivalry and more of an annual
event to breed self-loathing.
Which brings us to this year,
a game Michigan absolutely
should win, but a game in which
the alternative would be entirely
unsurprising.
There’s plenty of reason to
believe this Michigan team is
going to finally lay this two-
decade-long nightmare to rest.
It has the best quarterback in
recent program history in Shea
Patterson. It has an historically
great defense anchoring the
other side of the ball. It has
a signature road win against
(a retrospectively average)
Michigan State team under its
belt.
But be honest: any optimism
is clouded with fear. Confidence
is guarded with ample caution.
Ohio State has owned Michigan
for the better part of my lifetime,
and 10 wins against inferior
opponents doesn’t change that
framework until the Wolverines
overcome it.
Not to mention this Buckeyes
team — while in the midst of
a “down” season by its lofty
standards — is certainly no
pushover. They have a shoo-in
all-Big Ten quarterback and
dynamic offensive weapons
aplenty; Ohio State is still
averaging nearly 42 points per
game. They are still a top-10
team nationally, and you best
believe they will be motivated to
continue the reign of dominance
— and, by the way, play for its
third Big Ten championship in
the last five years.
Each side is coming in
with predictable hymns of
motivation.
“Everybody in the whole
entire country knows what
this week is,” said junior
defensive end Rashan Gary after
Saturday’s win over Indiana.
“We know what this week is. So
we’re going to attack. It’s been a
whole year of having a bad taste
in our mouth, so we’ve just got
to go out and prepare the right
way.”
Ohio State quarterback
Dwayne Haskins told reporters
he has watched Michigan play
every week.
One is taken with measured
confidence of a program that
has dominated for 20 years.
The other comes with a hint of
desperation. One is the bully,
the other is the downtrodden
victim.
Until I see those roles are
reversed on the field, I won’t
believe it. For the 16th time in
the last 18 years, Ohio State
is going to beat Michigan on
Saturday, and the hopes and
dreams of this Michigan football
season will come crashing
down in the most disappointing
fashion possible.
Marcovitch can be reached
at maxmarco@umich.edu or on
Twitter @max_marcovitch
Michigan will win
Ohio State will win
ALEXIS RANKIN/Daily
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and his team will head into Columbus on Saturday with a chance to clinch the Big Ten East.
ETHAN
WOLFE
MAX
MARCOVITCH
From redzone struggles, Jake Moody has historic performance
With the clock ticking, the
Michigan football team thought it
could score one last time before the
half against Indiana.
Trailing 17-15, the Wolverines
were in the redzone following
a 41-yard reception by redshirt
junior tight end Zach Gentry. With
only one timeout, Michigan ran
three times. Then junior tight end
Sean McKeon caught a pass at the
two-yard line, getting tackled in
bounds at the two-yard line. Time
was vanishing when it didn’t have
to.
As
halftime
approached
following
McKeon’s
reception,
Shea Patterson set the offense
to spike the ball, stop the clock
and kick a field goal. The referee
carried the ball to position it,
dropped it before he could give it to
center Cesar Ruiz and an Indiana
player kicked it away to lengthen
the referee’s scramble.
Halftime adjustments in the
locker room were coming next.
“We just didn’t execute well
enough,” said redshirt sophomore
tight end Nick Eubanks. “… We’ve
got a lot of work to do.”
It’s as simple as that.
Michigan made eight separate
trips
in
the
redzone
during
Saturday’s 31-20 win over the
Hoosiers, and scored a touchdown
only once — a two-yard run by
Karan Higdon, assisted by a pass
interference the previous play.
Five of those trips ended with
two short-yardage runs, and either
an incomplete or short pass before
the firstdown marker. On one of
those instances, the Wolverines
failed to find paydirt after a
dropped ball by Gentry. It was
a mishmash of monotonous but
sustained errors that raise red flags
heading into the season finale at
Ohio State.
“They did a great job,” Higdon
said. “We didn’t execute as well as
we wanted to a couple times. We
had some dropped balls, miscues
and we can’t have that. I’d rather
that happen now then next week.”
But Michigan’s struggles came
with a silver lining. Through
the Wolverines’ failed redzone
execution emerged much-needed
consistency from the place kicking
unit. Freshman kicker Jake Moody
took over field goal duties for Quinn
Nordin, who Moody said didn’t feel
good enough to enter the game.
Moody, who typically handles
kickoffs, went 6-for-6 on the day
— all within 33 yards — to break a
Michigan football record last set
by Nordin for most field goals in a
game..
From a numbers and momentum
standpoint,
Moody
was
the
difference maker.
“You talk about 139 years of
Michigan football, and set a record
six field goals,” Harbaugh said.
“Cool customer, good thing for a
kicker. … Every single field goal was
big today.”
Added Moody: “The guys out
there made it easy for me, the
snaps and the holds. … I’ve been
practicing all season. Quinn’s
been a great role model for me. He
taught me what to do when you get
out there to get your mind right to
kick.”
Harbaugh noted that his historic
performance wouldn’t guarantee a
starting spot for next week. While
the perfect day could offer peace of
mind, the performance was rooted
in the offense’s inability to score
touchdowns. Recording 507 yards
of offense is usually conducive to
more than 31 points.
“Just playing in the Big Ten,”
Patterson cited for the offense’s
shortcomings. “… Not everything is
gonna go your way. I thought they
had a pretty good scheme, pretty
good defense. We just took what
they gave us. I thought our defense
put us in a pretty good position.”
The offense was not without
its successes. Patterson rifled a
41-yard touchdown to a wide-
open Eubanks. And if you’re really
reaching,
Higdon’s
touchdown
demonstrated that the red zone
woes are fixable.
The Wolverines will have a week
to do just that. They repeat the
phrase “one game at a time” like a
greeting, and a short-term memory
is more of a demand than a request
with the Buckeyes looming.
But if just for Saturday, the day
rightfully belonged to Jake Moody.
“This
guy
was
a
sniper,”
Patterson said. “He did a hell of a
job.”
CARTER FOX/Daily
Freshman kicker Jake Moody set a Michigan record with six made field goals in the Wolverines’ win over Indiana.
ETHAN WOLFE
Daily Sports Writer
4B — November 19, 2018
The Michigan Daily — michigandaily.com
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