Charting the politics 
of Michigan

Design by Willa Hua | Analysis by Robert Lesser | Written by Brian Kuang

An election is nothing more than a snapshot of the electorate at a given time. Nevertheless, 
the results of the 2018 midterm elections in Michigan help form a wider story of the shifting 
political sands of the state and the nation. To help conceptualize today’s election results, the 
Statement Magazine has charted out how Michigan’s political map has shifted in three pivotal 
elections and how control of local and statewide offices has changed beginning in 2000.

The Obama Coalition

Though Republicans had early hope for contesting 
Michigan, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., ultimately 
had a decisive win in the state, beating Sen. 
John McCain, R-Ariz, by nearly 17 percentage 
points. In his victory, Obama carried not only 
historically Democratic areas, but also swept many 
predominantly white, working-class areas in rural 
and Upper Peninsula counties. The turnout of 
the voting age population for the election was 66 
percent — almost four percent higher than the 
national rate and eight percent higher than 2000. 

Republican businessman Donald Trump took the 
nation by surprise by narrowly winning many 
Midwestern states, including Michigan where 
he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 
by 11,000 votes out of 4.8 million votes that 
were cast in the state. Trump’s victory was built 
on flipping historically Democratic industrial 
strongholds in regions such as Macomb, Saginaw 
and Bay counties — many of which had voted for 
Obama only recently — and relatively weak voter 
enthusiasm in Detroit. Clinton had a relatively 
strong showing in upscale and educated areas 
such as Ann Arbor, but this was not enough 
to overcome Democrats’ historically weak 
performance in Michigan’s rural areas.

Bush v. Gore 

Amid a close national race where Texas Gov. 
George W. Bush ultimately prevailed, Vice 
President Al Gore edged out Bush in Michigan by 
five percentage points. Gore’s victory in the state 
was powered by strong margins out of Detroit, 
and traditionally-Democratic industrial and rural 
areas largely on the east side of the state, including 
Macomb County. On the same night U.S. Rep. 
Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., beat incumbent Sen. 
Spencer Abraham, R-Mich., for Michigan’s Senate 
seat by two percentage points in a much closer 
race. Democrats retained control over Michigan’s 
seats in the House — holding 10 out of 16 seats.

2000
2008
2016

A brief history of party control in Michigan

While Democrats historically dominated top ballot in Michigan, statewide offices have often been a tossup

*Color intensity is coded on each candidate or party’s margin in Michigan for the most recent election year on timeline 
 
 
 
**Timeline year indicates year in which election takes place, rather than year where office is held 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 ***Source: Michigan Secretary of State

Shattering the Obama Coalition

Wednesday, November 7, 2018 // The Statement
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Wednesday, November 7, 2018// The Statement 
 
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