FootballSaturday, October 22, 2016
6
Breakdown: Michigan a favorite again
The Michigan football team is
through the front half of the season
with an unblemished 6-0 record.
And only now are the third-ranked
Wolverines getting fully healthy.
They are coming off a bye
week and, before that, a 78-0 road
thrashing of Rutgers in which the
starters played only the first half.
Other than season-ending injuries
to fifth-year senior cornerback
Jeremy
Clark
and
sophomore
offensive tackle Grant Newsome,
Michigan’s players say they have
regained their legs after a week off.
Their next opponent, Illinois,
will be playing its second straight
road game, this time in front of
more than twice as many fans
as last week at Rutgers. The rest
should be just one of the many
advantages the Wolverines have
against the Fighting Illini (1-2 Big
Ten, 2-4 overall) this weekend on
homecoming. Here’s a breakdown:
Michigan
rush
offense
vs.
Illinois rush defense
Who will Michigan’s running
back of choice be this week?
The Wolverines continue their
revolving door at the position,
cycling between senior De’Veon
Smith, redshirt junior Ty Isaac,
freshman
Chris
Evans
and
sophomore Karan Higdon.
Three of those four have reached
the 100-yard mark in a game this
season — and Isaac fell a yard short
against Rutgers — but only once has
one of them carried more than 13
times in a game. It’s possible a fifth
back could even enter the fold this
weekend if fifth-year senior Drake
Johnson makes his 2016 debut,
though his first action of the season
wouldn’t be too strenuous.
The division of carries going
forward seems to be based on a
combination of the week of practice,
the hot hand and the feel for the
game. Most of those decisions have
paid off this season, as Michigan
amassed 481 yards on the ground
against
Rutgers,
vaulting
the
offense into 15th place in the
country in rushing yards per game.
That number is a bit skewed
because of the last performance,
but the Wolverines still hold
an advantage over Illinois. The
Fighting Illini rank 86th against
the run and have surrendered an
average of 224.2 yards in their
five games against Football Bowl
Subdivision opponents this year.
Edge: Michigan
Michigan pass offense vs. Illinois
pass defense
Between blowouts in the first and
most recent games of the season,
redshirt sophomore Wilton Speight
settled into a groove during a four-
game stretch. He hovered around
the 60-percent completion mark
and limited his interceptions. He
hasn’t been tested much yet — and
that shouldn’t change this weekend.
In the Rutgers game, Speight
threw just 13 passes, one for a
touchdown, and then he had last
week off. Michigan coach Jim
Harbaugh has expressed concern
about how his team performs in
the weeks before and after the bye,
but Michigan’s opponents have not
often interrupted Speight’s rhythm
this year.
If the Fighting Illini can do
that, though, that might be their
best chance to win. Smith’s teams
have always placed an emphasis
on forcing turnovers — that knack
once carried the Chicago Bears
to the Super Bowl — and Illinois
has started on that trend. Darius
Mosely has two of the Illini’s six
interceptions and has returned one
for a 78-yard touchdown.
A big play like that early
would help Illinois garner some
momentum at Michigan Stadium,
so it will be Speight’s job to avoid
giving that opportunity.
Edge: Michigan
Illinois
rush
offense
vs.
Michigan rush defense
Illinois’ carousel of running
backs looks similar to Michigan’s,
though the output has not been as
fruitful. Kendrick Foster leads the
Fighting Illini with 384 rushing
yards in six games and scored both a
rushing and a receiving touchdown
in a win at Rutgers last week. Reggie
Corbin is Illinois’ best big-play
threat, with 35 carries at 9.3 yards
apiece this year. Ke’Shawn Vaughn
adds depth off the bench with 221
yards. All three are gaining at least
five yards per carry.
And then there is the quarterback
position. First-string signal caller
Wes Lunt won’t scramble, but Lunt
is still questionable to play with
an injury. If the Fighting Illini
turn to their other option, redshirt
sophomore Chayce Crouch, they’ll
have a dual threat in the game.
Crouch ranks fourth on the team
with 176 yards and should see at least
spot duty as a change of pace, even if
Lunt is healthy enough to start.
All four of Illinois’ main rushers,
though, are in for a tough matchup
against Michigan’s defensive front.
The Wolverines have 60 tackles
for loss this year, 23 by their three
starting linebackers and a team-
high 10 by redshirt sophomore
Jabrill Peppers.
Other than a 275-yard anomaly
against Central Florida, Michigan
has not given up more than 81
rushing yards in any game this
season. That effort has been a
central component to the defense’s
success — when the Wolverines
stop the run on first and second
down, they put their opponent
in uncomfortable situations on
3rd-and-long.
Michigan’s
top-
ranked third-down defense again
faces a good matchup with Illinois’
120th-ranked third-down offense.
Edge: Michigan
Illinois pass offense vs. Michigan
pass defense
This matchup depends largely
on the starter under center for the
Fighting Illini. Lunt, a transfer from
Oklahoma State, is an experienced
quarterback with almost 1,000
career pass attempts to his name
between
Oklahoma
State
and
Illinois. He has completed 60
percent of his passes this season
with six touchdowns and just one
interception.
Crouch, meanwhile, is more
of a variable. He’s more of a
run-first quarterback, and any
one-dimensional
offense
going
against Michigan’s defense is a
risky proposition. He’s also a first-
year starting quarterback, which
typically doesn’t fare well against
the Wolverines’ front.
The bigger defensive threat,
though, is the pass rush. Fresh off
a bye week, the Wolverines will
again fire their full arsenal — fifth-
year senior Chris Wormley, senior
Taco Charlton and company. If they
get to Crouch, they could rattle the
young quarterback early. If they get
to an ailing Lunt, they could force
him out of the game, too.
Edge: Michigan
Special teams
Like almost every team in
the country, Illinois just doesn’t
have a proven big-play threat to
counter Peppers. Mosely’s 11 punt
returns have totaled just 60 yards,
and Foster’s 14 kick returns have
averaged 22.5. Without a threat
to flip the field, the Fighting Illini
might be at a disadvantage in field
position. On the other side of the
ball, they’ll have to decide whether
to kick at Peppers or out of bounds
away from him, and neither is an
ideal option.
Illinois does have the statistical
advantage in field-goal kicking.
Chase McLaughlin has converted
a solid nine of 12 attempts, while
Michigan still has an issue at that
position. The Wolverines’ last field
goal came Sept. 17 against Colorado,
and while he’s 0-for-2 in the past
four weeks, fifth-year senior Kenny
Allen is still the safe bet to kick if
there’s an opportunity Saturday.
Edge: Michigan
Intangibles
The effect of the bye week on
Michigan remains to be seen. The
Wolverines’ starters have played
30 minutes of football in the past
two weeks, so they may have some
rust to shake off early Saturday. It
doesn’t hurt that they will be back
in front of their home crowd on
homecoming.
Illinois,
meanwhile,
hasn’t
played in front of this Michigan
Stadium crowd since 2012, when
the Wolverines won, 45-0. The
Fighting Illini’s last trip to a
comparable site was a 55-14 loss to
Ohio State in 2014.
Last time Michigan played at
the Big House, the Wolverines
polished off a 14-7 win against a
good Wisconsin team to add more
legitimacy to their College Football
Playoff campaign. As they return
to their home field, they now rank
No. 3, their highest spot since 2006.
Illinois is coming off its first Big Ten
win of the season at Rutgers, but
Michigan just has more to play for.
Edge: Michigan
Prediction: Michigan 45, Illinois 7
GRANT HARDY/Daily
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Wilton Speight threw just 13 passes in his last game, leaving at halftime of a blowout win.
JAKE LOURIM
Managing Sports Editor