t \\ W.. k ri. ir.r.. The Michigan Daily - Thursday, November 30, 1995 - 5A Mich. may be key in choosing GOP candidate 24 moderate Republicans form new budget alliance VANSING (AP)- Presidential can- didates will have to woo Michigan vot- ers ifthey want to win the White House, a Michigan State University political ecpert said yesterday. "If it comes down to a horse race, Michigan will be very important. This will * be a real battleground," David Rohde, a distinguished professor of po- litic0I science at Michigan State, said at a political forum. The state also will be the last stand foi Republican candidates hoping to take on President Clinton, he said. Once voters in Michigan and other Midwestern states vote in the "Big 10" primary on March 19, it will be clear which Republican has enough delegates to clinch the nomination. "It could conceivably be over by the time it gets to us, but I think the better chance is we will shut it down," Rohde said: Ir 1992, Clinton won 44 percent of the Michigan vote while then-President Bush got 36 percent and independent candidate Ross Perot attracted 19 per- cent. It's still a tossup how Michigan resi- dents will vote in 1996, Rohde said. Hav- ing American troops in Bosnia "is a very dangerous backdrop to everything else that's going on" for Clinton, Rohde said. But GOP candidates such as U.S. Sens. Bob Dole and Phil Gramm face their own risks. Reaction to the second year of the Republican "Contract With America" could be much worse than the first year has been, Rohde said, and that might make Michigan voters choose Clinton. Even if popular Michigan Gov. John Engler is on the ticket as a vice presi- dential candidate, that's no guarantee Michigan will go Republican. "Only if the race were very, very close" would Engler's presence on the ticket affect the race, Rohde said. "People vote for president." Rohde expects several GOP candi- dates to withdraw by March 19, includ- ing Rep. Bob Dornan of California, Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana and pos- sibly commentator Alan Keyes. That should . leave commentator Pat Buchanan, former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, publisher Steve Forbes, Dole and Gramm as the princi- pal players leading up to Michigan's primary. It's likely at least one independent candiddte, and possibly more, may be on the November ballot, Rohde said. He expects Ross Perot's party, the In- dependence Party, to field a candidate. And a group of moderate Republicans, Former Tennessee Gov, Lamar Alexander may figure into the 196 presidential race. AP PHOTO WASHINGTON (AP) - Bringing civility back to the U.S. House is the first goal of an alliance of two dozen moderate Republicans who want a balanced budget and are fed up with the partisan politics of the budget de- bate. The 24 Republicans announced yes- terday their formation of the alliance to "stretch their hands across the aisle" and work with a conservative coalition of Democrats in seeking a consensus to break the deadlock over balancing the budget. "We're talking about helping our leadership find its way to a solution rather than gridlock," said Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.), a leader of the group. The two coalitions combined would create a voting block of 46 members. Tauzin had been a leader of the conser- vative Democratic coalition before he switched parties earlier this year. The Republican alliance members, including Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), said during a press conference they would not compromise on balancing the budget in seven years. But the two coalitions are a step re- moved from their respective party lead- ership-the level at which the political debate about the budget has turned bit- ter with the sting of personal attacks on both sides. "We have felt for awhile the growing incivility of the debate is a real prob- lem," said Rep. Peter Blute (R-Mass.), who along with his colleagues called for the reversal of a "polarized, per- sonal" trend. "People at home ... cannot under- stand how this partisanship, often ran- corous, has taken over the debate ... and the real issues have been put aside," Upton said. "It's when they see the clash of per- sonalities that (people) start to think the system isn't working," said Rep. Michael Crapo (R-Idaho). Clay Shaw(R-Fla.)said House mem- bers must recognize it is not in their interest for the House to remain so polarized that a third party becomes an attractive option. "We didn't come here to fight. We came here to legislate and make a dif- ference," he said. "We've got to get along with the other side." "We've got a remarkable opportunity (through the group) to do some binding in the House, to reach out for some solu- tions," said Rep. Bill Emerson (R-Mo.). Democrats and independents may put up a candidate as well. Regardless of their party, candi- dates will be fighting over two issues in the 1996 election, Rohde said: Medicare and House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Many voters, especially those re- ceiving Medicare benefits, are wor- ried by higher premiums proposed by Republicans, Rohde said. And Clinton is winning the perception battle over what should be cut from the federal budget. The House speaker is not faring as well. "Gingrich's approval ratings right now are about what Richard Nixon's were at the height of Watergate," Rohde said. Michigan Educational Employees Mutual Insurance Company (M.E.E.M.I.C.) Many University of Michigan employees haye already found they could substantially cut their insuyance costs. 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