The Michigan Daily-Tuesday, July 7, 1981-Page 3 RESULTS MAY AID PUBLIC POLICY DECISIONS Populations studied at 'U' By JOHN ADAM Daily research reporter Imagine if one could be sitting on a cloud, watching and monitoring the characteristics of a given population of humans below-keeping track of their births, deaths, marriages, retirements, unem- ployment, etc. After a period of time one could make defendable predictions as to what the behavior of the population might be if variable "X were changed-say a new law which forbids marriage before 25. At the University's Institute for Social Research, James Smith and his team of researchers are doing just this-monitoring representative populations to arrive at conclusions which can help shape public policy. THE TECHNIQUE is called "microanalytic simulation modeling" and the idea behind it is to start with a sample population, usually represen- tative of the nation, and to expand it through the years-"As you (would) grow a culture in a bacteria "Simulation modeling allows you to test public policies in a way that's relatively cheap, and it allows you to get the bugs out of it (the policy)." -James Smith, ISR researcher dish," said Smith. A typical population runs from 25,000 to 35,000 people and each one is examined by the computer. For example, take a 25-year-old male, said Smith. There is some chance he would die at such a young age, though the probability is not great. The com- puter then draws a random number and if it is a "death number" the computer zaps him. The com- puter then estimates the cause of death. SUPPOSE YOU didn't die, said Smith, then you have a probability of having a child (if you're a female) or getting married,in which case the'com- puter will find you a compatible mate. Or perhaps you will go to school or get divorced or lose your job. "It all depends on your past," said Smith, and added that simulation modeling, like any science, uses the experiences of the past to predict the future. But, Smith emphasized, this tool cannot accurately peer into the future like a crystal ball since there are See TECHNIQUE, Page 13 New 'U' drug may be cure for Herpesvirus BY LOU FINTOR Daily staff writer A new group of experimental drugs which are now being developed and in- vestigated at the University's Dental Research Institute may hold promise for the millions suffering from the currently incurable Herpesvirus I and the sexually-transmitted Herpesvirus II. According to Charles Shipman, associate professor of Microbiology and oral biology and coordinator of the anti- viral chemotherapy program at the DRI, the herpesvirus is extremely dif- ficult to diagnose when not in its infec- tious stages, making it difficult to treat. SHIPMAN DESCRIBED symptoms of the Herpesvirus I as consisting of a small "lesion" or "cold sore" usually located near the lip, and herpesvirus II expressing itself in multiple lesions or "papules" on or near the genitals. "I would estimate that as many as 1,000 students are afflicted with her- pesvirus II, and approximately 10,000 students with herpesvirus I on this campus. Many people don't know they have it," Shipman said. The researcher said that since the virus is only communicable during the infectious stages (when lesions are present), most people wait for an at- tack to subside without seeking treat- ment. A FURTHER complication to diagnosis occurs because the virus af- fects different individuals with varying degrees of severity, and also with varying frequencies. Usually, the episodes are brought about by periods of stress or extreme tension, when it will migrate to the point of infection and a lesion will ap- pear. Some individuals, however, may ex- perience an attack only once or twice in their lifetime, while others may have an attack every four to six weeks. Shipman described conditions favorable to the virus, indicating that it migrates to the tips of regional ganglia at various points throughout the body when not in the infectious stages where it resides permanently. See NEW DRUG, Page 4 Daily Photo by KIM HILL DR. CHARLES SHIPMAN holds one of the guinea pigs being used in resear- ch for a cure to herpesvirus. Report says future bleak for soeial security From AP and UPI WASHINGTON-A Cabinet-level report on Social Security warned yesterday the retirement system will go broke next year unless something is done, and said borrowing from other funds such as Medicare won't save it. "The OASI (the trust fund which finances retirement payments) will not be able to pay benefits next year. That's not a prediction, that's a certain- ty," said Social Security Commissioner Jack Svahn. THE REPORT makes it clear that either cutting benefits or raising taxes are the only ways of saving the plan. Both Congress and the administration have said raising taxes is politically unthinkable. The report also said Medicare faces long-range financial trouble and, because of the ailing economy, some 35 million retirees now get about $10 in benefits for every $9.50 the system receives in taxes from some 115 million workers. That means by next fall the fund will not be able to send out monthly checks on schedule, although for a while the shortfall would be such that the checks would be only a few days late. IN DISCUSSING their report, Svahn declared that Americans must lower their expectations of the pen- sion system. "There is a myth that has grown up in America that Social Security is a program for maintaining everyone at a middle-class level in their retirement years," he said. "It has always been a premise of Social Security that it is a base for retirement ayid a partial replacement for wages lost because of retirement, death or disability," he maintained. "It was never in- tended as a full retirement system for Americans." THE REPORT underscored President Reagan's call for major reductions in Social Security benefits, including a hefty penalty for early retirement, as a means to keep the pension and health insurance system solvent. It was compiled by the program's trustees: Health and Human Services Secretary Richard Schweicker, Labor Secretary Ray Donovan and Treasury Secretary Donald Regan. The longer range forecast was less dismal because of an expected drop in the ratio of retirees to workers and planned increases in payroll taxes.