0 0 0 s" " Nove ber 00" Breakdown: 'M' will squeeze past Purdue By MICHAEL EISENSTEIN and RUTH LINCOLN Daily Sports Editors MICHIGAN RUSHING OFFENSE VS. PURDUE DEFENSE Michigan fans should see something new this weekend - a healthy Brandon Minor. Rodriguez said Wednesday that the senior tailback has "done more than he's probably done in a month, or more." The Wolverines are a different team when their most physical back is in the game. Minor has just 322 net yards this season, but with five touchdowns, you know he can get the job done. If Minor is indeed healthy enough to take the majority of the carries, he should take over the game. Purdue boasts the Big Ten's ninth-ranked rush defense, allowing 168.4 yards per game. Michigan's success really depends on how the offensive line can gel this week. Against Illinois, the 0-line was streaky against the Big Ten's worst rush defense. But if the group can find some rhythm, it should open things up for Minor and freshmen quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson to break loose. EDGE: MICHIGAN MICHIGAN PASSING OFFENSE VS. PURDUE DEFENSE It's been four straight games, and still no touchdowns from Forcier. Much of that has been due to injury, but the freshman has really tapered off since his late-game comeback attempt in East Lansing more than a month ago. In those four games without a touchdown pass, Forcier has a lowly 47.3 completion percentage and is just 36-for-76. Purduestands atarespectable. fourth in the Big Ten in pass defense, allowing 194.7 yards per game. David Pender and Brandon King are no slouches in the secondary. Pender is best in the Big Ten with 11 pass breakups this season, and King has three interceptions. The Wolverine receivers have not impressed during Michigan's recent losses, with dropped passes their new mantra. With slot receiver Martavious Odoms out Saturday, it will take a lot to get Michigan's receivers going. EDGE: PURDUE SAM WOLSON/Daily Senior Brandon Minor has been hampered by injuries this season, but he was able to work more in practice this week than he has in months. MICHIGAN RUSHING DEFENSE VS. PURDUE OFFENSE Let's call this the battle of the mediocre. Michigan's rush defense is No. 85 in the country. Purdue's rush offense isn't much better at No. 73. That is sort of surprising, considering how the Wolverines' front four have emerged as the strongest unit of the defense. But big play after big play (not sure if you've erased Juice Williams from your memory yet) has hampered Michigan. The Boilermakers will likely rack up a good chunk of change - unless the Wolverines stick to their assignments and play solid gap defense, which sophomore defensive tackle Mike Martin said they didn't do against Illinois. The best indicator for whether the run defense is playing well won't be the average yards per carry or total yards, but rather how many over 20-yard carries Michigan gives up. The Wolverines can defend the ground game well, but they just can't afford to lose the game on a single play. EDGE: PUSH MICHIGAN PASSING DEFENSE VS. PURDUE OFFENSE For the Wolverines to win Saturday, they need to win this matchup. Michigan's secondary has been shredded in recent weeks, and it was particularly bad in its last home game against Penn State, when quarterback Daryll Clark threw for 230 yards and four touchdowns. Since then, the Wolverines have lost former starting cornerback Boubacar Cissoko for a violation of team rules, while defensive coordinator Greg Robinson has struggled to find an effective personnel combination in the secondary. The big plays that Michigan fans have come to expect against their defense probably won't disappear against Purdue, which despite a rough season, has a very good passing offense. Against Iowa and Indiana, the Wolverines gave up a combined 554 passing yards. The Boilermaker offense ranks higher than both of those. So yes, it's going to be a long day for the Michigan secondary. The only saving grace for the Wolverines? Purdue has thrown 12 interceptions, the second-highest total in the Big Ten. But Michigan hasn't forced a turnover in three games, so it will be interesting to see if it can capitalize on the opportunity. EDGE: PURDUE SPECIAL TEAMS Fifth-year senior Zoltan Mesko had one of his worst games of the year punting last week, but he appears to have a significant advantage on Saturday. Michigan is still the best punting team in the Big Ten, while Purdue sits in 10th, nearly 10 net yards per punt fewer than the Wolverines. With both teams averaging about 20 yards per kickoff return, punting will likely be the difference in field position this weekend. And if the game comes down to a field goal, Michigan is also at an advantage. Purdue has missed over 30 percent of its field goals, while fifth- year senior Jason Olesnavage is 8-of-9 on the year. EDGE: MICHIGAN INTANGIBLES The Wolverines need this win. Badly. It's not a must-win to become bowl eligible, but the Wolverines will only have an uphill battle ahead at Wisconsin and against Ohio State if they can't beat the Boilermakers. For two weeks now, it's seemed the bowl-eligibility factor would play some motivational role. Instead, the Wolverines have choked. This is their best (and some would argue last) chance to lock up a postseason game. That's enough to give them the advantage. EDGE: MICHIGAN SCORE PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 35, PURDUE 29 It's OKfor Blue to be desperate L ast year at this time, Desperation. Michigan's bowl eligibility Saturday's game is the Wolver- depended on winning out. ines' last real shot for relevancy in This year, all it needs to do is the regular season. Yes, I know it's win one game. against Purdue. And some (most?) But heading into Saturday's Michigan fans would argue that game against Purdue, the scene a win against Ohio State in two sounds too weeks would make up for the rest much like 2008. of the year. But Michigan needs That game to salvage this season well before started like Nov. 21. this: ' 4 "What's desperate? Not in foot- Michigan ball terms, I've never, ever used blows two- y that," Michigan coach Rich Rodri- touchdown guez said Wednesday. "You want leads two COURTNEY to have a hungry team, I guess, separate times. RA'KOWIAK but you want that whether they're In the third winning or losing. I don't want quarter, facing them to have some fatalistic view a critical Purdue third-and-9 at the of this last ballgame or anything. Michigan 30-yard line, the defense It's in the past. You can't do it over misses multiple tackles to give the again. Let's worry about this next Boilermakers the first down. They game." tie the game four plays later. But that last ballgame - that And it ended like this: Illinois meltdown - isn't really "Never in my wildest imagi- in the past. Those defensive woes nation did I think we'd score 48 have been a recurring problem, points," then-Purdue coach Joe including in last year's Purdue Tiller said while examining the game, and repressing those memo- box score. ries after the team has had what That, of course, was after Rodriguez calls "24 hours to think Michigan gave up the winning about the loss" obviously hasn't touchdown with 26 seconds left worked. On Saturday, the Wol- in the game, on a hook-and-ladder verines need to have last week's that left the Wolverines completely 99-yard Illini touchdown drive baffled. in their heads during every single Post-halftime collapses, massive play. That series alone should defensive breakdowns and heart- make them desperate enough to breaking last-second losses are still come out Saturday and make Pur- issues 12 months later. That's a let- due bowl-ineligible, just like the down, considering this team looked Boilermakers did to Michigan last like it had all the momentum in the year. world six weeks ago. The Wolverine players are But now, the Boilermakers must talking more about "playing with be salivating at the opportunity to heart" now because they have to face a Michigan team that looks know they can't purely rely on similar to last year's on paper. technique and talent. The Wolverines are coming into That much was clear when this game with the exact same Donovan Warren was asked on number of Big Ten wins as they Monday about giving offensive had before the Purdue matchup in players large cushions - a second- 2008 - one - and with a defense ary issue that has drawn the ire of that is equally bad at preventing fans and the media alike. big plays. "I'm just doing what's asked of "It's all about what you got me and playing to the best of my inside of you to make sure you ability," he answered, before being work as hard as you can," Brandon asked if he likes press coverage. "I Graham said Monday. "That's like playing guys press coverage, just how I'm going to bring it. I'm man-to-man. At the same time, gonna tell them it's all about your I have to do what's best for my heart now." team." Knowing how vulnerable this It was also clear when Rich year's defense really is, playing Rodriguez was asked Monday if he with heart alone won't be enough was surprised success hasn't come to beat Wisconsin or Ohio State. sooner, and he dryly responded, Against a 3-6 Purdue team, that "Not after I got here." might work. Illinois is asteam on the outs, But it needs a different name: See RATKOWIAK, Page 6B RB 1. Minor, Brandon Senior, No. 4 2. Brown, Carlos Senior, No. 23 1. Moundros, Mark RS junior, No. 44 2. Grady, Kevin Fifth-year senior, No. 24 FB 1.Stonum, Darryl Sophomore, No.22 2.Mathews, Greg Senior, No. 13 W R 1. Hemingway, Junior RS sophomore, No. 21 2. Savoy, LaTerryal Fifth-year senor, No. 82 1.Odoms, Martavious Sophomore No. 7 S 2.Grady, Kelvin RS sophomore, No.19 NIT 1 Marlin, Mike Sophomore, No. 68 NI 2. Campbell, William Freshman, No. 73 O LB 1. Rob, Craig Freshman, No. 88 2. Herron, Brandon RS sophomore, No. 58 M LB 1. Leach, Kevin RS sophomore, No. 52 2 Ezeh, Obi RS junior, No. 45 1. Mouton, Jonas RS junior, No. 8 2Weach, Kevin RS sophomore, No. 52 1. Brown, Stevie Senior, No. 3 2. Simmons, Floyd RS freshman, No. 23 L"C 1. Warren, Donovan Junior, No. 6 2. Turner, J.T. Freshman iKovacs, Jordan IS freshman, No. 32 SS 2. Van Slyke, Jared RS sophomore 1. Williams,Mike RS sophomore, No. 40 F 2. Emilien, Vladimir RS freshman, No. 5 RC 1. Woolfolk, Troy Junior, No. 29 2. Floyd, J.T. RS freshman, No. 12 November 7, 2009 -- Footbal Saturday MICHIGAN DEPTH CHART VS. PURDUE OFFENSE 1. Forcier, Tate Freshman, No. 5 2. Robinson, Denard Freshman, No.16 DE DT 1. Graham, Brandon Senior, No. 55 2. Heininger, Will RS sophomore, No. 39 1.Van Bergen, Ryan RS sophomore, No. 53 2. Banks, Greg Junior, No. 92 DEFENSE TE LT LG C RG RT 1. Koger, Kevin Sophomore, No. 86 2. Webb, MartellJunior, No.80 1.Ortmann, Mark Fifth-year senior, No. 71 2. Dorrestein, Perry RS iunior, No. 79 1. Scbilling, Steve IS iunior, No. 52 2. Mealer, Elliot IS freshman, No. 57 1. Moosman, David Fifth-year senior, No. 60 2. Kboury, Rocko IS treshman, No. 63 1. Omameh, Patrick Sophomore, No. 65 2. Barnum, Ricky RS freshman, No. 56 1. Huyge, Mark RS sophomore, No. 72 2. Dorrestein, Perry RS junior, No. 79 I RATKOWIAK From page 3B too, and it didn't bother to hide its desperation last week. Juice Williams had lost sole possession of the starting spot. Ron Zook was the most disap- pointing coach in the confer- ence after running a team of veterans into the ground, and he readily admitted the week before facing the Wolverines that he didn't know what was wrong with his team. But that 1-6 squad somehow found a way to win. Playing desperate isn't shameful. At this point, with the Wolverines badly needing to seal a bowl game this week- end, it's necessary. - Ratkowiak can be reached at cratkowi@umich.edu. SPECIAL TEAMS P K KR 1. Olesnavage, Jason R S senior, No. 92 1. Mesko, Zoltan RS senior, No. 41 1. Stonum, Darryl Sophomore, No. 22 2. Gibbons, Brendan Freshman, No. 34 2. Wright, Bryan RS junior, No. 43 2. Grady, Kelvin RS sophomore, No.19 Note: Depth chart as predicted by Daily football writers.