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October 29, 2008 - Image 14

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The Michigan Daily, 2008-10-29

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The Michigan Daily - Wednesday October 29, 2008

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After the last presidential
election, Michigan seemed like
it might go red. But then a few
big things got in McCain's way.
By Julie Rowe
Daily Staff Writer

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At a rally in Detroit in
March, Hillary Clinton
declared that the road to
the White House goes through
Michigan in 2008.
Six months later, both the
Republican and Democrat nomi-
nees stopped campaigning in
the state as they make their final
cases elsewhere.
But this was supposed to be
the year that Michigan had a
chance of breaking its four-elec-
tion streak of voting Democrat.
McCain had the advantage of
having campaigned heavily in
the state before Michigan's Jan.
15 primary. Obama didn't make
an appearance here until May, as
having pledged not to campaign
in Michigan after the Democrat-
ic National Committee stripped
the state of its convention del-
egates for moving up its primary
date in violation of party rules.
While Michigan has been in
the blue column since Bill Clin-
ton defeated George H.W. Bush
in 1992 by 7 points and former
Sen. Bob Dole with a 13-point
margin in 1996, the past two
presidential elections were
decided by only a few hundred
thousand votes.
In 2000, Al Gore edged
George W. Bush 51 percent to
46 percent. In the next election,
John Kerry won 51 percent of
the vote here.
McCain led in state polls until
June, when the gap tightened
after Obama clinched the Dem-
ocratic nomination. The week
after the Republican National
Convention, about 10 percent
of the state's likely voters were
undecided and the two hopefuls
were polling within three points
of each other.
Neck and neck, both cam-
paigns were braced for a fight.
"With the economy being
such a big issue in this state, vot-
ers were absolutely looking to
both candidates to answer the
big question of what they were
going to do about the economy,"
said Brent Colburn, spokesman
for Obama's Michigan campaign.
"We definitely saw it as a state
that was going to be in play and
was going to be a place we were
going to have to fight to win."
And for a while, McCain
fought hard for Michigan's 17
electoral votes. The campaign
spent nearly $1 million a week
here in September. McCain and
surrogates made weekly visits
after the Republican National
Convention.
ButonOct.2,withpollsshow-
ing Obama leading by as much as
13 points in the state, McCain
deemed Michigan a lost cause
and pulled advertising and staff-
ers, re-allocating funds to other
battlegrounds.
A state that thought to be
the crucial battleground state
in September suddenly lost
importance. The national media

packed up andstopped reporting
on the state's economic woes. As
Obama's already impressive lead
in the polls grew, he too, decided
to move some of his staffers to
other states.
So what happened to osten-
sibly decide Michigan's vote
a month before Election Day?
McCain blew it.
COURTING THE REAGAN
DEMOCRATS
To take Michigan, McCain
had to win over the state's infa-
mous Reagan Democrats, white,
working-class voters who voted
for former President John Ken-
nedy by a 2-to-1 margin in 1960,
but got their name in 1980 after
they overwhelmingly voted for
former President Ronald Rea-
gan.
But these voters weren't sup-
porting Reagan simply because
they, believed in trickle-down
economics. They voted for him
because he promised to break
from the style of the previous
administration. When Reagan
was competing for the state's
middle class workers, he was
running against an unpopu-
lar Jimmy Carter, who voters
blamed for the struggling econ-
omy.
Just as Michigan's voters ral-
lied behind Ronald Reagan and
answered him with a resound-
ing "no!" when he asked in 1980
if they were "better offnow than
you were four years ago," 28
years later, a new group of strug-
gling middle-income voters are
supporting the candidate who
promises change - Obama.
It made sense that the day
after the Republican National
Convention, McCainwasinSter-
ling Heights wooing the swing
voters of Macomb County.
But McCain's speech at the
10,000-person rally only briefly
touched on the economy. He
attacked Obama's plan, claim-
ing: "I'll keep taxes low and cut
them where I can. My opponent
will raise them. I'll open new
markets for goods and services.
Myopponentwill closethem. I'll
cut government spending, he'll
increase it. My tax cuts will cre-
ate jobs, his raises will eliminate
them."
His nod to the Republican
stock mantra of lower taxes
wasn't enough to assuage the
financial worries of blue-collar
voters in Macomb County, who
polls now to have flooded to
Obama.
LOSiNG THE BLAME GAME
The state of Michigan has
suffered a recession for longer
than the rest of the country. The
state's unemployment rate has
been among the highest in the
nation for years and is steadily
increasing - more than 400,000

jobs have disappeared from the
state over the past eight years.
And as the situation gets
bleaker, Democrats and Republi-
cans have only ramped up their
finger pointing, leaving voters
wondering whom to blame.
Democrats claim President
Bush is responsible for the cur-
rent crisis, accusing him of cre-
ating tax and trade policies that
punish domestic industries.
Earlier this summer, Obama
took shots at Bush for not meet-
ing with Big Three executives to
discuss the ailing auto industry.
But Republicans point to
Democratic Gov. Jennifer Gra-
nholm, elected in 2002. When
Republican Dick DeVos chal-
lenged her as she sought reelec-
tion in 2006;he blamed her for
the state's loss of manufacturing
jobs and rise in unemployment
during her first four years - and
she took shots at Bush for not
meeting with Big Three execu-
tives to discuss the ailing auto
industry.
But according to a poll
released earlier this month by
Michigan State University's
Institute for Public Policy and
Social Research, 36 percent of
Michigan residents said Gra-
nholm was doinga "poor" job in
office, compared to 56 percent of
Michigan residents who said the
same of Bush.
Regardless, Hutchings said,
voters don't make their presi-
dential pick based on state poli-
ticians. Rather, they choose their
chief executive based on the per-
formance of the party control-
ling the federal government.
"It's a nice try," Hutchings said.
"Our state has serious economic
problems, but that's not the cri-
teria people are using to evaluate
the presidential candidates."
And unfortunately for McCa-
in, the current Republican
president has one of the worst
approval ratings in history, with
just 17 percent of Michigan vot-
ers calling his performance
"excellent" or "good."
The Obama campaign suc-
cessfully linked the incumbent
president with the Republican
hopeful. A Washington Post
survey found that 51 percent
of Americans believe McCain
would mainly continue in the
Bush tradition.
Bill Ballenger, editor and pub-
lisher of Inside Michigan Poli-
tics, said Bush's unpopularity in
Michigan, would handicap any
Republican candidate here.
"Michigan is the biggest eco-
nomicbasketcase in the country
for the lasteight years andsall(the
economic crisis) did was make
the economy so overwhelming
here and such a negative for the
Republican nominee - whoever
it was," said Ballenger, a for-
mer Republican politician who
has served in both houses of
the Michigan legislature. "That

happens to be McCain and that
really killed him."
BANKING ON THE WRONG
CRISIS
McCain's go-to attack on
Obama is the freshman senator's
lack of foreign policy experience.
In debates, he routinely listed
countries that Obama hasn't vis-
ited, hinting that his opponent
was unaware of the ways of the
greater world. Inherent in this
charge is McCain's desire to
recapture some of the energy of
the 2004 presidentialrace, when
terrorism and U.S. action abroad
was the hot button issue.
But after the financial melt-
down drew attention to the
nation's slowing economy, voters
wanted candidates to focus on
troubles at home. As the econom-
ic outlook got bleaker through-
out the month of September,
Obama's poll numbers only grew.
In Michigan, where the economy
has been slow for a long time, the
boost in support for Obama was
all the more extreme.
When the financial crisis
deepened, McCaintriedto prove
that he was putting "Country
First" suspending his campaign
and requesting the first Presi-
dential debate be postponed.
But voters and the Obama cam-
paign didn't bite. Obama called
his bluff and continued cam-
paigning, pledging to appear
at the debate whether McCain
chose to show up or not. McCain
resumed his campaign two days
later, in time for the debate on
a Friday. On Monday, a bailout
deal fellapart and the stock mar-
ket plummeted. McCain didn't
get a boost in the polls.
A Washington Post poll
released last week gave Obama
an 11-point lead nationally, but
had Obama ahead of McCain by
a 2-to-1 margin on "helping the
middle-class."
The same poll, however,
found that McCain leads Obama
by 19 points on the question of
who would be a better com-
mander in chief.
While it's clear the current
economic situation has played
in the Democratic candidate's
favor, if the country were face
ing a crisis of national security,
McCain likely wouldn't be the
underdog on Election Day.
"If we had another crisis,
like a foreign policy crisis or
some kind of .terrorism crisis,
that might have been suffi-
cient to basically be the death
knell of Barack Obama's politi-
cal career," Hutchings said. "It
would have really given a boost
to John McCain."
STRAIGHT TALK, WRONG-
ANSWERS
McCain won the Michigan
Republican primary in 2000

against Bush, even though
Bush had all but locked up the
party's nomination.
Despite the fact that for-
mer Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney won the state handily
during the state's primary in
January - he earned 39 per-
cent of the vote while McCain
only received 30 percent -
Republican operatives used
McCain's 2000 victory as evi-
dence McCain could pull off an.
upset in Michigan.
They wrote off McCain's
significant defeat here in 2000,
saying Romney, a Bloomfield
Hills native and son of popular
former Gov. George Romney,
was always expected to sweep
his home state.
But McCain's struggles in
the state can largely be attrib-
uted to his campaign strat-
egy. When he drove through
Michigan on his Straight Talk
Express, McCain lived up to
the bus's namesake and did not
alter his stock stump speech
to pander to the state's strug-
gling workers. What he told
them wasn't what they wanted
to hear.
When McCain stumped
before the January primary, he
was met with boos when he told
a Michigan audience that some
manufacturing jobs wouldn't
be returning to the state.
"I'm not willing to accept
defeat like that," Romney said,
responding to McCain's com-
ment in a speech at Macomb
Community College on Jan. 11.
In blue-collar Macomb
County, Romney, a wealthy
business executive, trounced
McCain by 20 points, garner-
ing 45 percent of the vote.
Months later, Obama easily
exploited another McCain line
to his advantage in Michigan.
A long-time staple of McCain's
stump speech, the phrase "the
fundamentals of our economy
are strong," came under fire as
the financial crisis worsened in
the month of September.
"Nine straight months of job
loss, yet, just the other week,
John McCain said the funda-
mentals of the economy are
strong," Obama said at a rally
at Michigan State University.
"Well, I don't know what yard-
stick Senator McCain uses, but
where I come from, there's
nothing more fundamental
than a job."
Colburn, Obama's spokes-
man in Michigan, said Obama's
promises to retool factories
and invest in the auto industry
resonated with Michigan vot-
ers.
"The McCain camp came to
say that the auto industry is
a thing of the past, that it is a
failed industry and an industry
that we don't believe in invest-
ing in and we don't believe in
supporting," Colburn said.

It wasn't a surprise that the
man who said the auto indus-
try wouldn't return to its for-
mer glory conceded Michigan.
McCain made the announce-
ment to pull resources from the
state the day after auto manu-
facturers released some of the
worst monthly sales numbers
in years.
MCCAIN'S OWN{
ECONOMIC WOES
Even while he was com-
mitted to winning Michigan,
McCain couldn't keep up with
his opponent's spending.
The Michigan Campaign
Finance Network found that in
the five weeks after Labor Day
Obama spent $5.5 million on
television ads. McCain spent
$3.7 million.
The Democratic National
Committee spent $500,000 on
ads for Obama. But even the
Republican National Commit-
tee's investment of $1.1 million
didn't give McCain an adver-
tising edge over Obama.
McCain, who is using public
financing, is limited to spend-
ing $84 million in the general
election. Obama, who rejected
public financing, is able to
spend as much as he can raise.
In September alone, Obama
pulled in more than $150 mil-
lion, an amount more than dou-
ble the record-breaking $62
million he raised in August.
Because of McCain's defi-
cit in polling and fundraising,
the Republican campaign had
to reallocate funds to states he
was more likely to win.
"They just didn't have the
money to compete in Michigan
or any other state the way that
Obama has," Ballenger said.
The fact that it was a Dem-
ocrat breaking these fund-
raising records has pundits
shaking their heads. For the
past 20 years, Republicans
have outraised Democrats by
at least 10 percent in each elec-
tion cycle. In 1988, Republican
fundraising totals were twice
as much.
"Obama has basically rede-
fined campaign finance in this
campaign," Ballenger said.
"He's just so dramatically out-
spent McCain, which is very
unusual for a Democratic can-
didate."
Despite McCain's retreat
from Michigan, Obama still
has 200 paid staffers and 60
campaign offices in the state.
Even before McCain pulled out
of the state, his presence in the
state was dwarfed by Obama's
campaign.
NEW VOTERS WEIGH IN
Not only did McCain strug-
gle to gain the support of swing
voters in Macomb and Oakland

counties, but Democratic vot-
ers are expected to turn out in
much larger numbers.
Michigan Secretary of State
Terri Lynn Land reported
328,000 new voters registered
since the year began. Washt-
enaw County, ahaven for Dem-
ocrats, boasted a 10 percent
spike in the number of regis-
tered voters.
The influx of first-time vot-
ers, the bulk of whom are likely
to support Obama, is partly
due to the campaign's massive
voter registration drives tar-
geting minority, middle- and
low-income families.
Kerry won Michigan in
2004 by about 150,000 votes.
His narrow win was attributed
to high turnout among black
voters in Wayne County, where
twice the number of voters
chose Kerry than Bush.
"In 2004, John Kerry won
the state primarily on the
strength of the black vote ...
but now we have a black can-
didate on the top of the ticket
so clearly Wayne County is
going to turn out even higher
than it did in 2004," Hutch-
ings said.
THROWING IN THE TOWEL
While the Republican base
in Michigan will still turn out
to vote for McCain, Ballenger
said, independent and swing
voters were likely alienated by
his decision to pull out of Mich-
igan and won't support him.
If polls are to be trusted,
Obama could take the state by
a double-digit margin. The Big
Ten Battleground poll released
last week gave him a com-
manding 22-point majority in
Michigan.
"McCain has basically
thrown in the towel," Bal-
lenger said. "He's scaled back
everything and he isn't doing
anything and he'll probably
never be back. Well, that's a
disaster. You just can't do that,
but he did it."
Although the media isn't
showing Michigan much atten-
tion, there's a chance that the
state will still be a barometer
for voting patterns in other
battlegrounds.
The message that won over
Michigan's blue collar voting
bloc will likely win over the
same demographic in the other
Rust Belt states - Ohio, Penn-
sylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin
and Minnesota.
"When this is all said and
done, I think what you will see
is that the economic arguments
that we're making - that are
resonating everywhere across
the country - just really
started to take hold and really
resonate a bit earlier in Michi-
gan and other places," Obama
spokesman Colburn said.

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