0 ." 0 S S Football Saturday - October 24, 2008 - 3B 6B - Football Saturday - October 24, 2008 Breakdown: Michigan vs. Michigan State By IAN ROBINSON and NATE SANDALS Daily Sports Editoro Michigan rushing offense vs. Michigan State rushing defense: Junior runningback Brandon Minor had a breakout game against Penn State last week. His 117 yards weren't a career high, but they moved Minor to the top of the depth chart. f Minor can hold onto the ball, he should be a weapon against Michigan State. The Spartans' rushing defense is ranked eighth in the Big Ten, and it has allowed opponents an aver- age of145 yards on the ground per game. Michigan's offensive line hasn't exactly been dominant so far this season. The Wolverines are ninth in the conference in rushing offense. But Michigan's combina- tion up front should be the same as it was against Penn State, when it opened big holes for Minor to start the game. Edge: Push Michigan passing offense vs. Michigan State passing de- fense: Michigan fans should hope redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet kept his right elbow encased in bubble wrap this week. Threet has been struggling with a bruised throwing elbow since the Toledo game. When he aggravated it at Penn State, Threet had to come out of the game. The results were not good. Even if Threet is 100 percent on Saturday, Michigan will struggle ANGELA CESERE/Daily Middle linebacker Obi Ezeh tackles Michigan State running back Javon Ringer in last year's matchup. to move the ball through the air. Senior safety Otis Wiley can be a game-changer in the Spartan secondary. Wiley has already had two games with two interceptions this year. If the Wolverines want to gain yardage on Wiley and Co., they will need to distribute the ball and force Michigan State to cover receivers other than junior Greg Mathews. Edge: Michigan State Michigan State rushing. offense vs. Michigan rushing defense: The Wolverines' missed tackles and poor pursuit angles have turned opponents' short gains into big plays all season. At Penn State, Nittany Lion running back Eric Royster averaged almost ten yards every time he ran the ball. And Michigan State has a bet- ter running back. The Spartan offense runs on the legs of Javon Ringer. Until last week's letdown against Ohio State, he was mentioned as a possible Heisman candidate. Even after the loss, he's still second in the nation in rushing yards. Although he mightbe a little short and lacks breakaway speed, he should be able to break into the Michi- gan secondary regularly. People knocked on former Michigan run- ning back Mike Hart for the same reasons, and he played some pretty good games in this rivalry. Edge: Michigan State Michigan State passing of- fense vs. Michigan passing defense: Michigan is 95th in the country in pass defense. The cornerbacks haven't lived up to preseason expectations, and the defensive line has been neutral- ized in the last few weeks. But it should get a bit easier for the defensive line, because Brian Hoyer isn't a dual threat like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark. Moyer is expected to play Sat- urday, despite injuring his hand and head last week. But many in the Spartan fan base are calling for backup Kirk Cousins to start instead. As long as the quarterback can put the ball in Ringer's hands and limit mistakes when he's called upon to throw, he won't be the deciding factor in the game. Edge: Michigan Special teams: Before last week, the lone bright spot on Michigan's special teams was punter Zoltan Mesko. After getting a punt blocked and kicking the safety punt out of bounds, even he has shown flaws. He should be back to form this week, but the fumbles on kick returns will likely remain. The Spartans have a reliable kicker in Brett Swenson (15-for- 16). If the game goes down to a field goal, Michigan State has the advantage. Edge: Michigan State Intangibles: Where to begin? First, there's Michigan junior defensive end Brandon Graham's guarantee that Michigan will win, despite the fact that Michi- gan State is the clear favorite. Second, there's the ramifications of a brawl that took place be- tween the Michigan State hockey and football teams, which could result in the suspension of some Spartan football players. Realistically, it's just the standard amount of distractions that surround an in-state rivalry game. In the end, it all evens out. Edge: Push Prediction: Michigan State will win 20-16. DAN FELDMAN Michigan will run multiple trick plays. The Wolverine offense has been stagnant for.long stretches, and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez will try to jumpstart it. A rivalry game is the perfect time to unleash the bag of tricks. Michigan State safety Otis Wiley will have an interception. The Flint native leads the Big Ten in picks. Redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet's bruised elbow will make him a little erratic, and redshirt sophomore backup Nick Sheridan hasn't shown he can handle game speed. Wiley will take advantage. Michigan will win 23-20. If this game was in East Lansing, the Spartans would win. But as vulnerable as Michigan is, junior defensive end Brandon Graham's guarantee will be enough to give the Wolverines focus in a sloppy, hard-fought game. IAN R' B:NS" Redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet will outplay Michigan State quarter- back Brian Hoyer. In each of the last few games, Threet has shown signs of progress. Hoyer is a senior and in his second year as the starting quarterback. But after Hoyer's performance against Ohio State and Threet's against Penn State, Michigan's quarter- back is the one on the rise. Junior defensive end Brandon Graham will do his part to live up to his guarantee. On multiple occasions against Penn State, Graham was inches away from getting to Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark. Clark was just too mobile, but Hoyer doesn't have the same robility as Clark. Graham will get consistent pressure on Michigan State's quarterback, and the question will be whether the rest of the team backs up Graham's guarantee. Michigan State will win 20-16. Michigan's run defense has proven vulnerable in the last few weeks, and it hasn't gone against a back like Michigan State's Javon Ringer yet. The Spartans will avoid their traditional October collapse as Ringer leads them to victory. Darryl Stonum will have his best game of the season. With wide receiver Greg Mathews injured and James Rogers likely starting in Mathews' absence, Stonum will probably get more playing time, too. After being suspended for the game against Illinois for what Rodriguez called a "viola- tion of team rules," Stonum will be looking to redeem himself. After being the only freshman to enroll early last winter, he hasn't been an impact player this season. Now's his chance. John Thompson will have an interception. Michigan State quarterback Brian Hoyer is notorious for cracking in high-pressure situations. Thomp- son has already had an interception in a high-pressure game - the 19-point comeback against Wisconsin. Thompson was one of the team's most pumped-up players in the Wolverines' strong first half against Penn State, and he will go for the kill Saturday when the game is close. Michigan will win 28-21. The Wolverines are due for a victory and the Spartans are due for their usual second-half-of-the-season collapse. Both will happen Saturday. NATE SANDA LS Michigan will score two touchdowns in the third quarter. The Wolver- ines have just seven points all season coming out of halftime. It's hard to diagnose why the offense has struggled so mightily after the break, but Michigan has simply been killed in the third quarter. But with Threet healthy, Michigan will be in rhythm all afternoon. Michigan will know how Wisconsin felt after losing its late-game lead. The fourth quarter was a strong point for the Wolverines early in the season. But the Wolverines gave up 21 in the fourth to Illinois and 20 in the final 15 minutes at Penn State last week. Michigan will head into the final quarter with the lead but won't be able to hold it. Michigan State will win 21-16. Michigan will take the lead into the fourth quarter but has struggled late in games recently, especially on defense. Ringer's bruising running will finally break through in the closing minutes. CAN T GO TO THE GAME? FOLLOW IT LIVE. MICH IGAN DAILY. COM/TH EGAM E