0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 -Iq 6B'- Football Saturday - October11, 2008 Breakdown: Michigan vs. Toledo October 11, 2008 - Football Saturday - 3B By IAN ROBINSON AND the Threet-led offense has gone NATE SANDALS long stretches without moving the Daily Sports Editors ball, like in the last three quarters against Illinois. MICHIGAN RUSHING OFFENSE The Rockets have allowed over VS. TOLEDO RUSHING DEFENSE 30 points in four of five games Toledo returned almost its this season and rank 109th in pass entire defense from last year, but efficiency defense. They have in- that unit allowed 215 rushing yards tercepted just two passes and have per game. But in the team's biggest recorded a mere six sacks. As bad test against Ball State last week, it as Michigan's passing offense has allowed 240 yards on the ground. been, the Rockets' pass defense The Wolverines have had just has been worse. one player run for 100 yards in Edge: Michigan a game this season - freshman running back Sam McGuffie at TOLEDO RUSHING OFFENSE VS. Notre Dame. Part of that has to do MICHIGAN RUSHING DEFENSE with the crowded backfield, and The Michigan rushing defense Michigan's inexperienced offense was looking pretty good, rolling has already started four different along near the top of the Big Ten combinations of players at offen- rankings. Then Juice Williams sive line. Still, Michigan is more strolled into Ann Arbor. The Illini talented than the Rockets, and ran all over Michigan to the tune should have its way on the ground. of 191 yards on the ground, with Edge: Michigan 121 from their dynamic quarter- back. MICHIGAN PASSING OFFENSE VS. There's no question that Michi- TOLEDO PASSING DEFENSE gan is stronger against the run At times, Michigan redshirt than they showed against Illinois, freshman quarterback Steven and Toledo is a good place to start Threet has looked like a legitimate regaining some confidence. Junior Division-I quarterback, like in DaJuane Collins is a bruising back the first quarter against Illinois. (5-foot-11, 211 pounds) and he is But there have been times when averaging over seven yards per MAKE SURE STUDENTS FALL INTO THE RIGHT CRIB: ADVERTISE IN THE FALL REALTY PAGE. x carry this season. But Collins isn't an outside runner, and Michigan's big defensive line, led by senior Terrance Taylor, should be able to shut him down. Edge:'Michigan TOLEDO PASSING OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN PASSING DEFENSE As bad as Michigan's run de- fense looked last week, the pass coverage somehow managed to look worse. Yes, Williams eluded pressure and the secondary had to hold its coverage longer than normal - but 310 yards? Williams collected just 70 yards against Michigan last year. The Rockets are averaging less than 200 yards of passing per game and junior quarterback Aaron Opelt is completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes. Still, Michigan has to be wary of Toledo's downfield threats, junior wide receiver Stephen Williams and senior wideout Nick Moore. Williams is listed at 6'5" and Moore is just an inch shorter. Tall receivers have given the Michigan secondary trouble in the past. If the safeties bite on play-action, look out. Edge: Toledo SPECIAL TEAMS If there's an MVP for Michigan this season, it's redshirt junior punter Zoltan Mesko. Thanks to Mesko, the Wolverines lead the country in net punting (42.09 The Michigan secondary will have its best game. Toledo is averaging 187 passing yards per game. But the Michigan defense was embarrassed against the Illinois spread offense and, after a week of practice that started with coach Rich Rodriguez calling his team's play "soft," the secondary will be extra focused on not missing coverage. Expect plenty of pass breakups while Toledo's receivers come up short. Greg Mathews will tally at least 100 receiving yards. I said this last week, but seriously, it'll happen Saturday. He has 221 for the season, but one of these games, the Threet-Mathews combination has to click. Mathews has looked better each game since coming back from injury, and it's time for Michi- gan's offense to shine. Michigan will win 31-13. For a non-Big Ten game, this match- up has huge season implications. The Wolverines can't afford to lose this game with Penn State looming next week. They won't. Both teams will fumble in the return game. When it looked like Michigan finally found a go-to return man in freshman Martavious Odoms last week, he fumbled a kickoff late in the game. The Rockets have also had their own issues on kick returns, fumbling twice against Fresno State. Martavious Odoms will score his first touchdown. Odoms was one of the few bright spots against Illinois last week, accounting for 56 percent of the team's all-purpose yards. It appeared as if he was starting to get into a rhythm with Threet. He is due to get in the end zone. Michigan will win 24-10. The Wolverines should get back to .500 with a win over the Rockets. The result won't be in question very long, as Michigan will clearly be the bet- ter team Saturday. Redshirt freshman Steven Threet will help give the Wolverines the edge against Toledo Saturday. yards). But Michigan's biggest problem on special teams has been fumbling kickoffs. Even last week, when freshman Martavious Odoms emerged as a possible frontrunner in the returner competition, he fumbled a kickoff late in the game. Toledo has also had fumbling issues on kickoffs. Against Florida International, the Rockets fumbled twice. Toledo's kicker has been solid, converting eight of nine attempts, but the kick and punt returner have not proven to be gamebreakers this year. Edge: Michigan INTANGIBLES Rich Rod looked pissed off after the game on Saturday, and he didn't look any happier at his press conference on Monday. The coach wouldn't say whether he planned to make practices harder this week, but the players must have been a little worried. After being embarrassed against Illinois, Michigan should come into this game with a chip on its shoulder. Of course, Toledo is 1-4, so the Rockets probably haven't had a sunny week of practice either. This is the program's first trip to the Big House, and even though this might be the smallest Michigan Stadium crowd in a decade, it should still be pretty intimidating. Edge: Michigan Score: Michigan wins 24-10