The Michigan Daily - michigandaily.com
Thursday, November 2, 2006 - 5A
An unpopular president, an
unpopular war, a rising deficit and a
barrage of scandals. The Republican
Revolution is in shambles and there's
no one else to blame. Are the
Republicans about to face the ...
URN
KATIE GARLINGHOUSE
Will 2006 be the year of the donkey?
To the casual observer, poli-
tics is hit or miss - but anyone
who studies the game knows the
importance of trends. Though
never hard and fast, previous
trends are often a decent gauge for
upcoming elections. If the econo-
my is in a recession, the incumbent
president should probably start
clearing out the oval Office. If the
nation is in a war, the opposite is
true, and even a crook like Richard
Nixon can easily be re-elected. In
a midterm election, the president's
party almost always loses seats
in the House of Representatives.
Since the Civil War, there have
been only three midterm elections
where the president's party man-
aged to escape that fate - though
two of those happen to be the last
two midterm elections.
Anything goes when the excep-
tion becomes the norm, but don't
expect the 2006 midterm elec-
tions to go the way of the last two.
There were good reasons for the
exceptions in 1998 and 2002 (the
failed impeachment of a popular
president and the Sept. 11 attacks,
respectively). There are no such
circumstances to link 2006 to the
trend-bucking elections of 1998
and 2002.
There are many striking simi-
larities, however, between this
election and 1994 - and that would
mean that the Republicans might
as well start their goodbyes. In that
year, after holding the House of
Representatives for the better part
of 60 years, the Democrats lost an
astounding 54 seats in the House.
Under the absolute leadership ofthe
brash Newt Gingrich, the Republi-
cans wrested control of the House,
and they've held it ever since. That,
coupled with a less dramatic but
equally significant takeover of the
Senate, brought on "the Republi-
can Revolution." With a resound-
ing victory for President Bush and
solidified Republican control over
both houses of Congress in 2004,
the revolution seemed complete.
But in politics, all victories
are temporary, and revolutions
can be countered. Leading up
to 1994, it was the Democrats
who had a president with a low
approval rating and unpopular
policies. In addition, they had to
deal with ethics investigations
- like the one that forced House
Speaker Jim Wright to resign in
1989 - and messes like the house
banking scandal, exposed by the
bloodthirsty "Gang of Seven"
freshman Republican congress-
men. The Democrats controlled
both branches of Congress and
the presidency, and they took the
blame squarely on election day.
And now, 12 years later, it's
remarkable how the tables have
turned. It's the Republicans who
must defend a president with abys-
mal approval ratings and a war
that's becoming increasing unpop-
ular, too. And if that's not enough,
they must somehow mitigate the
party's illicit ties to a sketchy lob-
byist, Jack Abramoff, and disgraced
congressmen such as Tom Delay
and Mark Foley. Surely everything
can't be the Republicans' fault, but
with their ironclad control over
both houses and the presidency,
who else canvoters blame?
And so voters face what certain-
ly is the most momentous midterm
election since 1994. With Republi-
Northeast
Though Republicans rode the
president's coattails to fortify
control over both houses in
2004, the situation is much
different two years later.
Senate
Midwest
Driven by a sustained economic
downturn and growing disillusionment
with the war in Iraq, voters
in the Midwest have made their
region the toughest of all for
Republicans to hold onto.
Senate
Missouri: Republican incumbent Jim,
Talent seeks re-election against Democratic
challenger Claire McCaskill in a race that
many are calling the closest in the country.
Fueled by ballot initiatives that would allow
stem-cell research in Missouri if approved at
the federal level and a proposal to raise the
minimum wage, Missouri has become a battle-
ground over the economy and socially conser-
vative ideals. Talent - who defends the war in
Iraq, proposes a ban on embryonic stem-cell
research and opposes an increase in mini-
mum wage - is struggling to justify all three
positions to the moderate rural and corporate
constituents in his base. McCaskill, on the
other hand, supports both proposals and has
questioned the administration's war in Iraq,
much to the delight of Missouri's urban popu-
lation. Prediction: McCaskillprevails inthe
nation's tightestrace.
Ohio: Two-term Republican incumbent
Mike DeWine is also struggling against his
Democratic challenger, Sherrod Brown.
Considered a moderate, DeWine is coming
under fire from both his conservative base
(who disapprove of his willingness to cross
aisles) and his moderate supporters (who
disagree with his support for the war in Iraq
and blame him for the continued economic
downturn). On top of this, the Republican
Party in Ohio is dealing with corruption
scandals involving Gov. Bob Taft and Rep.
Bob Ney. In the midst of this GOP upheaval,
Brown has pulled in voters with his opposi-
tion to the war in Iraq and his expertise on
trade and economic policy acquired from
serving on various committees in the House.
Prediction: Brown defeats DeWine.
House of Representati
Ohio (District 18): Democ
squares off against Republic
Republican incumbent Bob I
to abandon his re-election c
allegations links to lobbyist
Prediction: Space defeats:
ily.
Indiana (District 8): Pro-
tion Democrat Brad Ellswort
Republican John Hostettler
known as "the Bloody Eighth
toss-up, and the winner har
party an ideological victor
Ellsworth triumphs.
Illinois (District 6): With
of 16-ters Republican Henr
crat Tammy Duckworth, an
faces Peter Roskam, Republi
state Legislature. With total
race nearing the $3-million3
remains close. Prediction
prevails.
ves:
crat Zack Space
an Joy Padgett.
Ney was forced
ampaign under
Jack Abramoff.
Padgett hand-
Pennsylvania: Republican
gun, anti-abor- incumbent Rick 'Santorum, a'
h faces antiwar close ally of Bush, is seen as too
in the district deferential to both the Repub-
." The race is a lican Party and the president
dly. gives either himself. Santorum, formerly of
y. Prediction: the House of Representatives'
infamous "Gang of Seven,"
the retirement has long been a mouthpiece of
y Hyde, Demo- the Republican agenda, and
Iraq veteran, he reflects some of the most
can whip of the extreme positions of his party.
spending in the Even though Santorum has a
mark, this race reputation as a strong finisher
: Duckworth and has a large advantage in
funding, Democratic challenger
GARYGRACA Bob Casey continues to lead
in the polls. Casey, despite his
Democratic stripes, opposes
abortion and is considered a
cultural conservative, ensuring
that he will attract some con-
district that is servative voters. Prediction:
's chances look Casey defeats Santorum.
g her support of
can incumbents in danger across
the country, we offer our analysis
of some of the races most pivotal in
determining control of Congress.
These are by no means the only
important races - or even most of
them - but space constraints allow
us to include only a handful. We
have broken them down by region
and hope to offer you a hint of the
monumental scope of this election.
We owe much of our informa-
tion to the excellent interactive
election guide that The New York
Times has posted on its website.
We encourage you to consult this or
other election guides and become
informed on the changes that next
week's elections may bring. After
all, Tuesday's results could very
well determine the next decade of
American politics.
IMRANSYED
issues, but a vote against Chafee
is ultimately a vote against the
Republicans, which explains
why Whitehouse is comfortably
ahead in most polls. Prediction:
Whitehouse wins handily.
House of Representatives
Connecticut (District 4):
Republican incumbent Chris-
topher Shays faces Democratic
challenger Diane Farrell. A
social liberal, Shays is a staunch
defender of the environment
and stem-cell research. Far-
rell has made the contest a
referendum on Shays's support
for the war in Iraq. That might
be enough to put her over
the top, but of allithe races in
the Northeast, this one is the
toughest to call. Prediction:
Shays survives.
Pennsylvania (District 7):
Republican incumbent Curt
Weldon faces Democrat Joe
Sestak. Weldon has stood his
ground as a staunch Republican
- he wholeheartedly supports
the warinIraq. Sestakaformer
vice admiralin the Navy,has the
advantage, thanks to changing
district demographics and the
current investigation into Wel-
don's daughter's lobbying firm
as well as his own questionable
business dealings. Prediction:
Sestak wins.
Pennsylvania (District
10): Republican incumbent
Don Sherwood squares off
against Democrat Christopher
Carney. Sherwood's extra-
marital affair has alienated
his conservative base. During
last summer's primary, his
opponent garnered 44 percent
of the vote despite spending a
miniscule $5,000. Carney has
an impressive political resume:
He was not only a political sci-
ence professor and a reserve
officer in the Navy, but he also
served as an advisor on coun-
West
In a Senate that Democrats see as ripe
for the picking, things are relatively
quiet on the Western front.
Senate
Montana: Democrat John Tester is chal-
lenging Republican incumbent Conrad Burns.
Recent polls show that Tester holds a reason-
able single-digit lead on the incumbent.
Although his campaign spending totals less
that half of Burns's, Tester has seized the lead
in the polls in wake of a resurgence of the Dem-
ocratic Party in Montana - the Democrats
recently took control of the state Legislature
and governor's office.
Tester, currently a Montana state senator,
was nominated to challenge Burns precisely
due to his background in farming. The incum-
bent Burns is in trouble is because of his ties to
lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who funneled money
into Burns's previous campaigns. It's bold for
Burns to stay in the race, but his chances are
bleak. Prediction: Tester triumphs
Arizona: Republican incumbent John Kyl
faces Democratic challenger Jim Pederson.
Though the latest polls find Kyl consider-
ably ahead, the race will depend on turnout
amongHispanic voters.
Kyl's voting record on immigration is not a
stark departure from the rest of his party, but
his views differ from his Arizona colleague,
Sen. John McCain, and Pederson. Hispanic
voters disapprove of his votes against estab-
lishing guest worker programs and provid-
ing illegal immigrants with Social Security
benefits. Kyl also voted in favor of eliminat-
ing food-stamp benefits for children of immi-
grants and allowing more workers into the
country strictly for farm work. Kyl also sup-
ported the border fence that was included in
the Immigration Reform Bill recently signed
into law. Prediction: Kyl survives.
House of Representatives
New Mexico (District 1): Republican incum-
bent Heather Wilson faces Democratic chal-
lenger Patricia Madrid, in
43 percent Hispanic. Wils
greatly diminished consider
the president's unpopulari
Prediction: Madrid defeat
Colorado (District 7):
tender Ed Perlmutter, hopi
from the district's undeci
reversed his views on the
embryonic stem-cell resea
can candidate Rick O'Donn
guish himself from other
contrasting views on educ
care. This district is pivot
takeover of the House. P
mutter prevails.
Washington (District 8):
Seattle district, Republica
Reichert faces Democrat Da
Microsoft executive, Burn
top among challengers in
tion: Burner unseats Reic
ia
;on
rin
immigration plan. Rhode Island: Even a fierce-
s Wilson ly centrist reputation might not
be enough to save Republican
Democratic con- incumbent Lincoln Chafee from
ng to secure votes voters eager to build a Demo-
ded centrists, has cratic majority in the Senate.
war in Iraq and Rhode Island is a decidedly
rch. The Republi- liberal state, as manifested by
el hopes to distin- the center-Left ideology of even
Republicans with the Republican nominee in this
ation and health- race. Chafee, with the exception
al for a Democrat of recent legislation regarding
Prediction: Perl- bankruptcy and class-action
lawsuits, has sided against
both President Bush and Sen-
In this suburban ate Republicans on nearly every
n incumbent Dave issue. His support for embryon-
rcy Burner.An ex- ic stem-cell research, abortion
er ranks near the rights and a pullout of troops
funding. Predic. from Iraq has distinguished
hert. him from his Republican col-
KEVINBUNKLEY leagues. Democratic challenger
Sheldon Whitehouse agrees
with Chafee on many of those
South
Several high-profile races in the
South will play a pivotal role in
determining the Democrats'
Congressional fortunes.
Senate
Virginia: Incumbent Republican
George Allen faces an unexpectedly
tough race thanks to Virginia's chang-
ing demographics and Allen's percieved
racial insensitivity. At a campaign stop
last summer, Allen made a racially,
offensive comment about an Indian
staffer of his opponent Jim Webb.
Shortly thereafter, University of Vir-
ginia Prof. Larry Sabato accused Allen
of making discriminatory comments
about blacks earlier in his career.
Traditionally a conservative strong-
hold, Virginia has had Democrats
Mark Warner and Tim Kaine as its
last two governors. This gives Webb
- a Vietnam veteran, Secretary of the
Navy under President Reagan and an
outspoken opponent of the war in Iraq
JARED GOLDBERG AND NEIL TAMBE
- a strong chance of pulling the upset.
Prediction: Allen survives.
Tennessee: In retiring Majority
Leader Bill Frist's state, Democrat Har-
old Ford seeks to become the first black
man elected to the Senate from the
South since Reconstruction. His cam-
paign strategy - using Biblical teach-
ings to support his public policy agenda
- is also a model for how Democrats can
win in red states in the future. Ford, an
alum of the University's Law School, is
running neck-and-neck with Republi-
can Bob Corker at this point, and that's
an accomplishment in itself, consider-
ing Al Gore failed to pick up Tennessee
in 2000 even though it's his home state.
Prediction:Ford pulls offthe upset.
House of Representatives
Florida (District 13): With incum-
bent Katherine Harris looking for a
seat in the Senate, Republican Vern
Buchanan and Democrat Christine
Jennings are vying to replace her. The
race is close, but this conservative dis-
trict is unlikely to fall to the Demo-
crats. Prediction: Buchananwins.
Florida (District 16): Democrat
Timothy Mahoney faces Republican
Joe Negron. No matter how conserva-
tive this district might traditionally have
been, avote for the Republicans involves
voting for the disgraced Mark Foley
(who didn't drop out early enough to
have his name removed from the ballot).
The Democrats should have no problems
here. Prediction: Mahoney wins.
Texas (District 22): Tom DeLay's
seat will go to either Democrat Nicho-
las Lampson or Republican Shelley
Sekula-Gibbs. Sekula-Gibbs is sup-
ported by the Republican Party, but
her name is not on the ballot. Facing
the impossible odds of a write-in cam-
paign, Sekula-Gibbs will be a minor
obstacle in Lampson's victory. Pre-
diction: Lampson wins easily.
BY THE NUMBERS
Seats leaning Democratic: 8
Seats considered toss-ups: 4
Seats leaning Democratic: 19
Seats considered toss-ups: 17
Source: The New York Times
JOHN STIGLICHAND EMMARIE HUETTEMAN
ALEXANDER HONKALA
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