4B - The Michigan Daily - SportsMonday - March 6, 2006 HITTING AFTER THE WHISTLE 0 ICE HOCKEY 0 6 heartbreaker against the Bulldogs STEVEN TAI/Daily All goalie Billy Sauer could do was stare at the ice after the Feb. 26 overtime loss to Ferris State as the Bulldogs celebrated after their win. Michigan must now forget the past and concentrate on this coming weekend's second-round playoff series against Ferris State. *I By Daniel Levy Daily Sports Writer Do or die. Win or go home. Last week's USCHO.com NCAA Tourna- ment projections didn't include No. 14 Michi- gan, the first time all season the Wolverines had been absent from the bracket. But the fallout from the weekend's action has the Wolverines slotted as the 13th seed out of a field of 16 teams - still anything but a lock to make it. That makes this weekend's best-of-three series against Ferris State in the CCHA Tour- nament quarterfinals the biggest games of the year. All year long, the Wolverines clung to their reputation and preseason hype, main- taining a high ranking despite putting up a 9-12-4 record in the last three months. Now the picture is clear. The voters are no longer caught up in the Michigan tradition, or the potential of a promising freshman class. With a win, Michigan can breathe easy before the official bracket is released. A loss would likely leave the Wolverines on the outside looking in - a fate almost unimaginable for a team that climbed to the nation's top spot in the polls on two separate occasions earlier this year. Fortunately for the Wolverines, this week- end's must-win games will be played in the friendly confines of Yost Ice Arena, where they hold a 12-6-1 record. The Wolverines took advantage of a first-round bye to get some rest and regroup after a disappointing Senior Night loss. The Bulldogs had to battle a physical Ohio State team on Friday and Sat- urday night's to get into this weekend's sec- ond-round matchup. Ferris State enters Friday night's game riding a wave of momentum. The Bulldogs have won three games in a row, a streak that began with a4-3 overtime win on the Wolverines' Senior Night. Michigan held a 3-0 lead after the sec- ond period before falling apart in that game. The two keys to the series will be goalten- ding and first-strike offense. Bulldog goalie Mitch O'Keefe refused to let Ferris State full to Ohio State in the first round of the CCHA Tournament, allowing just one goal in the sweep. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have been locked in a frustrating game of musical goal- tenders all season long due to the inconsistent play of both senior Noah Ruden and fresh- man Billy Sauer. Michigan coach Red Beren- son may not make a final decision as to who will start until after Thursday's practice. The first goal could determine who wins each game. Despite losing to Forris State after racing to a 3-0 lead, the Wolverines hold a stellar 12-3-2 record when they get on the board first. The Bulldogs are 11-5-7 when scoring first. Ferris State also holds a 7-5 record in one-goal games compared to Michigan's disappointing 3-5 mark - a disturbing stat for the Wolverines given the close nature of playoff games. After win- ning the Mason Cup last year, the Wolverines will need another string tournament to seal a NCAA bid. More quarterfinal action will take place less than an hour away from Ann Arbor where Michigan State will host Alaska-Fair- banks inside East Lansing's Munn Ice Arena. The Nanooks swept Notre Dame last week- end. Their reward for advancing? A date with one of the hottest teams in the nation. The fourth-ranked Spartans have won six of their last seven games - including a sweep of No. 2 Miami. Winning at Munn Ice Arena will be a tough task for Alaska-Fairbanks. Spar- tan goalie Jeff Lerg has been a wall in his freshman season - posting an impressive 1.98 goals-against average. His cousin Bryan Lerg is tied with captain Drew Miller for the team high in points with 34. The duo leads an offense that provides just enough scoring - the Spartans average less than three goals per game - for a smothering defense that holds opponents to an average of 2.34 goals per game. Even more impressive is Michigan State's 10-4 record in one-goal games and its 11-4-3 home record. There is no question that the Spartans will make the NCAA tournament - right now they are the fifth seed in the projected bracket - but if they can stay hot and win the confer- ence tournament, they have a shot at claiming one of the four No. 1 seeds. Michigan State took seven out of a possible eight point from Alaska-Fairbanks during the regular season and appears to be headed towards two more victories over the Nanooks. One of the most intriguing matchups in the quarterfinals takes place in Oxford where Miami hosts Western Michigan. Despite fin- ishing 11th in the conference, the Broncos went to Sault Ste. Marie and stunned the home fans by sweeping the Lake Superior State last weekend. Despite the first-round success, Western Michigan has been abysmal away from Lawson Arena - posting a 3-13-4 record. On the flip side, Miami won the CCHA regular season title by a comfortable margin. The RedHawks are 12-2-2 at home, including a series sweep of the Broncos in January. Part of Miami's No. 2 ranking and conference championship can be attributed to a favor- able schedule - it just faced Michigan and Michigan State twice this season and didn't have to travel to Ann Arbor - but there is no question that it's a good team. The RedHawks shouldn't have too much trouble getting by the Broncos en route to the CCHA Finals. The matchup between No. 12 Nebraska- Omaha and Northern Michigan could be the closest of the weekend. The two teams fin- ished the regular season tied for fourth in the conference, but Northern Michigan earned the first-round bye by virtue of having more CCHA wins. The Mavericks controlled their own destiny, but a loss at Western Michi- gan on the final day of the regular season cost them third place in the conference and a week of rest. Instead, Nebraska-Omaha had to fend off a pesky Bowling Green team, while Northern Michigan took time off to get healthy. That loss may haunt the Mavericks this weekend because the two teams will square off in Marquette this weekend instead of Omaha. The Mavericks did sweep the Wild- cats in Marquette Feb. 10 and 11, and they have the conference's top-scoring line with Hobey Baker Award candidates Scott Parse and Bill Thomas. But Northern Michigan is tough to beat at home, and the extra week off could make the difference in a physical series. The winners of these series will advance to the semifinals, to be played at Joe Louis Arena. Matchups will be based on seeds, with the top seed facing the lowest seed regardless of how the bracket is drawn out. 40 0 6 Another winless weekend for Icers THE 'RED' LINE This week, instead of grading different aspects of Michigan's game, the four Daily hockey writers will assess the Wolverines' chances of repeating as Mason Cup champions. Mark Giannotto I can't see the Wolver- ines dropping two out of . three at Yost against Fer- ris State next weekend. But advancing past the CCHA final four is asking a lot out of a team that has not played a complete hockey game since the month of December. Michigan will get past the Bulldogs, and I can see them reaching the finals, even if they have to face Michigan State. But a possible matchup up in the final against H. Jose Bosch The Wolverines will take two out of three against Ferris State. Before the season, this reporter picked Michigan to win the Mason Cup, and I still believe it. But it's going to take a lot of luck. And come playoff time, its bet- ter to be lucky than good. The Wolverines should bounce back from a disappointing Senior Night to beat Ferris State. But they will probably have to face a red-hot Spar- tan team in the CHHA final four. Michigan hasn't beaten BULLDOGS Continued from page 1B at 6:38 turned a one-sided affair into a grind-it-out war. The Wolverines futility attempted to keep the game from getting away with only four shots on net in the final frame. Then at 15:21, Ferris State's Corey Couturier picked up a loose puck at mid ice and skated alone towards Sauer before putting it past the freshman to tie the game and send the Bulldogs fans into a frenzy. Ferris State needed only 42 seconds of overtime to win the game. Another Mich- igan turnover at the point of the Wolver- ; - {>: " .Sir ~ I