The Michigan Daily - SportsMonday - October 10, 2005 - 3B Accordeng to the math, Varsity may be in a bit of trouble *Tlonestly believe that I can't say it any better than the rush end LaMarr Woodley. "This wasn't just for the Jug, it was for the Big Ten Championship," Woodley said. "They came across and took all of that away." With this most recent loss to Minnesota - the first one in 19 years - Michigan essentially eliminated itself from the Big Ten race. Purdue and perennial bottom- dweller Illinois are now the only teams in the conference worse than the Wolverines. And it's possible that it won't get any better. Michigan is one of the most talented teams in the country, HE but something is different this year. The Spo And the Wolverines don't have any Co easy games left on the schedule. - There are no more Eastern Michigans to beat up on in bounce-back games. In fact, it's possible that Michigan will lose all of the rest of its games. It's a little something I like to call the transi- tive property of football - basically, since team A beat team B and team B beat team C, it fol- lows that team A should beat team C. There's also a corollary of the transitive property, which says that if team A beats team B by one point and team C beat team B by two points, team C is clearly better than team A. It's not perfect, but I figure that, if it's good enough for mathemati- cians, it's good enough for me. Still writhing from the agony of a 3-3 record, I spent Saturday night studying these properties. Since I'd like to start making New Year's plans - and in order to do that I would have to know what, if any, bowl game I will be traveling to over winter break - I decided to use the transitive property of foot- ball to figure out where Michigan will end up this year. Here it goes: IAN Oct. 15 vs. Penn State - This RBERT one is easy. Penn State crushed ortsMonday Minnesota two weeks ago, 44-14. olumn Minnesota just walked into the Big House and beat Michigan 23-20, so it looks like Penn State will be a loss. Plus, Penn State beat Northwestern and the Wildcats just edged Wisconsin in a shootout, 51-48. If you didn't remember, Wisconsin was the first Big Ten team to beat Michigan. I remember, Ian. IfI recall correctly, the offense couldn't get anything started against Wisconsin and wide receiver Steve Breaston made just one catch for negative one yard. At i G G least it looks as ifBreaston has returned from his sabbatical even if quarterback Chad Henne couldn't hit an elephant. Oct. 22 at Iowa - The Hawkeyes beat Pur- due this weekend, reclaiming their manhood and sending Purdue and its 0-2 conference record to the bottom of the Big Ten. But Purdue took Minnesota to overtime in Minneapolis a couple of weeks ago, which is better than Michigan did. Note: Michigan probably could have gone to overtime if it hadn't called three timeouts in the last two minutes before letting Minnesota's Gary Russell run 60 yards. Still, the Boilermak- ers' effort stands, putting up another notch in the loss column for the Wolverines, according to the transitive property. To be fair, Minnesota ended up beating Purdue by seven, which might mean that the Boilermakers are actually worse than Michigan. But you know what they say about statistics - they'll testify for either side. Oct. 29 at Northwestern - Like I said before, the Wildcats' victory over Wisconsin basically assures them of toppling Michigan on Halloween weekend. Northwestern only beat Northern Illinois by one point, and Michigan topped the Huskies by 16 in the first game of the year. So this game presents a little bit of a dilemma for the transitive property. Because the ghosts will be out that weekend - and it's at night in Evanston - I'm giving the edge to the team wearing purple. It wouldn't be the first time the Wildcats toppled a Big Ten powerhouse. Last year, Ohio State walked into Evanston at night and lost an overtime game. This year's Halloween game is in Evanston at night. Scared? Nov. 5, bye week - Michigan is pretty safe this week. According to the mathematicians, the Wolverines have lost four straight heading into the bye week. They have two more games to go - although, at this point, they've already assured themselves of not playing in a bowl game. My New Year's Day plans are set for back home in D.C. You can't lose what you don't put in the middle. Damn next year's addition of the twelfth game. Nov. 12 vs. Indiana - The Indiana game may not look like the toughest game on the schedule, but it's the toughest test for the transi- tive property. Bear with me. Indiana beat Central Michigan in the Hoosiers' first game of the year. Central Michigan then turned around and beat Miami (Ohio) the very next weekend, meaning that Indiana is better than Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks lost to Ohio State, but only by 20 points (34-14). Ohio State beat Iowa 31-6, which is more than 20 points. Because they did better against the Buckeyes, Miami (Ohio) is clearly a better team than Iowa. And since I already showed that Michigan is going to lose to Iowa in Iowa City, it's painfully obvious that Miami (Ohio) is better than the Wolverines. Therefore, if the transitive property of football does in fact hold up, Michigan will almost certainly lose to Indiana on Nov. 5. The team's record heading into the Ohio State game should be 3-7. It is often said that a win against Ohio State can save any Michigan season. If it gets to this point, I'm not sure that's true. Nov. 19 vs. Ohio State - This is an obvious loss. Ohio State beat Iowa by 25 points, and I have already used the transitive property of football to clearly show that Iowa was a better team than Michigan - remember, the Hawkeyes are going to win in Iowa City on Oct. 29. By that logic, Michigan should get creamed by the Bucks. Michigan has made it to a bowl game every year since 1975. That's an awfully long time. With a record of 3-8, it's obvious that I will be spending my winter break almost entirely at home in Washington D.C. Without a bowl game to go to, I won't really have anything to do. Maybe I could study math. - Herbert can be reached at iherbert@umich.edu. History cannot save spikers in defeat to the Boilermakers By Ian Robinson Daily Sports Writer At halftime of Saturday night's volley- ball game, the Cliff Keen Arena score- board looked eerily familiar. The Wolverines trailed No. 22 Purdue 30-20, 30-20 at the half, but they knew E they could draw upon their experience from last November for MHIN 3 motivation. ®N.' On November 6, 2004, the Intercollegiate Athletic Facil- ity scoreboard showed that Purdue held a 2-0 advantage over Michigan. The Wolverines clawed their way back from a 30-22, 30-21 deficit to win the match in five games. This time Michigan (3-3 Big Ten, 9-6 overall) failed to win the third game, despite facing three game points, and dropped the match 30-20, 30-20, 36-34 en route to a weekend split at Cliff Keen Arena. After two games in which the Wol- verines failed to show that they could compete with the top teams in the Big Ten, they came out with a new intensity in the third game. They jumped out to a 15-11 lead before Purdue (3-3, 14-3) tied the score at 16. The game went back and forth until Michigan pulled ahead by three points, 28-25. The Wolverines dropped two of the next three points, but they had a chance to close the game with the score 29-28. Michigan coach Mark Rosen called a timeout at this critical juncture to talk about his team's strategy. On the ensuing point, freshman Mara Martin set the ball up for sophomore Katie Bruzdzinski on the left side of the net. Bruzdzinski attempted a kill to the left side of the Purdue defense but Pur- due senior Renata Dergan met the ball on the other side of the net and delivered the ball back over the Michigan blockers to tie the game. Following a Purdue service error, Michigan had another opportunity to close out the game but junior Danielle Pflum could not control a Purdue kill attempt. The Boilermakers closed the game with a kill to the back right corner of Michigan zone, followed by a Michigan attack error. "It was encouraging to see our team change the flow of the match, but to not be able to close it out is frustrating," Rosen said This weekend's homestand was the second straight week that the Wolverines won on Friday night but failed to com- plete the sweep by losing on Saturday. "In this conference, you have to be able to go back-to-back on Friday and Saturday night and take care of match- es like we didn't take care of tonight," Rosen said. As poorly as the team executed on Saturday night, the team could do little wrong in a 30-20, 30-25, 30-19 sweep of Illinois (2-4, 10-6) on Friday night. The Wolverines total of 12 aces was their highest single-game mark since the 13 they notched in a five-game match against South Carolina in 1999. The team also played efficiently, main- taining a hitting percentage of .400 and committing just 11 errors. "This was one of our best offensive performances of the season," Bruzdzins- ki said. "There was not one person taking control because it was very balanced." KUUIGOGAYA/Daily Sophomore Katie Bruzdznski had eight kills In the Wolverines' losing effort against Purdue on Saturday. Blue shows up-tempo defense in preseason intrasquad game By Daniel Bromwich Daily Sports Writer Practice is still five days away. . But the atmosphere in Crisler Arena on Saturday morning did not befit a scrimmage held mainly for the enjoy- ment of friends, family and fans. The Michigan women's basket- ball team is very young, featuring five freshmen and five sophomores. And the team showed off its young legs on defense. Throughout the scrimmage the Wolverines applied defensive pressure for all 94 feet. "I'm a coach that wants to play a lot of full-court defense once we get the players to do so, which we are pretty close to now," coach Cheryl Burnett said. "We have a lot of dif- ferent defenses." Burnett has told the players that the best defensive group of players and the players that work the hard- est will start the first exhibition game against Athletes in Action on Nov. 1. The team has had more opportu- nities to prove itself on defense and also to just practice as a full team this year. Last year, rules held that the team had eight hours a week during the preseason for any bas- ketball-related activity, condition- ing included. But the coaches could only do skill work with four play- ers or less. This year, due to a rule change, the coaches can have the entire team on the basketball court for four hours per week during the preseason. On Saturday, Burnett used two of those hours to hold a scrimmage and create more of a game-like situation. "A big difference between this year and last year is that the play- ers are a lot more familiar with our offense," Burnett said. "With scrim- mages like this, we can work on the big picture, and then in practice we can break down and work more on individual skills." The scrimmage was organized into four different 20-minute ses- sions. For the first session, Burnett grouped together the players that performed the best in the team's conditioning training. In the next part, she chose a team comprised of her best defenders. The second group instantly elevat- ed the intensity of the scrimmage. The game quickly developed a fast- paced style, with multiple steals turned into lay-ups. The defensive team was led by junior Kelly Helvey, who converted several of her steals into and-one's on the other end. For the third and fourth portions of the scrimmage, Burnett separated the four male students who practice with the team. She wanted to have all the girls play together and work against physical players who are bigger and stronger. The women initially struggled to match the size and physicality of the men and fell behind 20-6. But the Wolverines quickly settled down and cut the deficit to five points before the end of the quarter. The women led the men for the first half of the final quarter, rely- ing on pressure defense and timely three-pointers from freshman Jes- sica Minnfield. But as the quarter progressed, the men began to use their advantages in size and strength to take the lead. Fatigue played a part, as the women began to settle for jumpers instead of attacking the basket. But largely, Burnett was pleased with what she saw. "We know we are going to pres- sure the ball and deny passes because those are the easiest things to learn," Burnett said. The two hardest things to learn are help- side defense and blocking out. I was very impressed with how our play- ers were able to execute because we haven't had too much time with our workouts, and this is a bunch of young kids." The young kids have young legs though, and those young legs should contribute to a hard-charging, defen- sive-minded team this year. "We want to be in the best shape of any team in the country," Burnett said. "We are a defensively driven team, and our entire program is built upon that philosophy." ALEX DZIADOSZ/Daily Junior Kelly Helvey was 14th in the Big Ten in steals last season. 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