Tuesday - September 13, 2005 news@michigandaily.com SCIENCE 0 5 ... BREAKING DOWN KATRINA University professors explain the cause and ongoing difficulties of the hurricane's destruction By Kingson Man Daily Science Reporter In the days following one of the worst natural disasters to strike American soil, national media outlets portrayed Hurricane Katrina as a two-fold-story: juxtaposed on top of the images of human suffering was the commentary track of bureaucratic malfea- sance. As the empirical work of determining what exactly happened and what caused such massive damage is being undertaken by profession- als and academics alike. Versed in the language of storm surges, load failures and the Saf- fir-Simpson Hurricane scale, University scientists have offered their insights on Hurricane Katrina and the damage that has followed in its wake. "According to our models, we are only halfway through this year's hurricane season," was the first thing on Perry Samson's mind, a pro- fessor in the department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Scienc- es. "We expect more, some of which could be the size of Katrina." "The power of a hurricane is almost entirely a function of how warm the ocean is beneath it," Samson said. Having had all summer to warn up, the Gulf of Mexico and other large bodies of water are only now reaching their peak temperatures. "All their energy comes from water that is evaporating off the ocean, so the warmer the water is, the stronger the hurricane will be," Samson said. "According to our models, we are only halfway through this year's hurricane -Perry Samson, professor of atmo- spheric, ceanic and 0 space sciences Katrina itself was an uncom- monly large hurricane. While originally thought to be a mod- erate storm that would track up the Florida panhandle, the inconstant Gulf Stream winds pushed it into the Gulf of Mex- ico, where it lingered, building up energy and gathering inten- sity. By that time Hurricane Katrina had reorganized itself into a much fiercer beast, placing it between a four and a five on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes from one to five based on wind speed. The other metric used on hurricanes is based on the area of land they cover. "At that point it was the fourth largest hurricane in terms of size in Gulf history," Samson said. When it crashed into the Gulf coast, Katrina stretched all the way from Florida to Texas. At that point, the coastal buildings bore the brunt of wind speeds of about 140 to 150 miles per hour. Most modern buildings are designed to withstand winds of up to 145 miles per hour, according to James Wight, a University professor of civil and environmental engineering. "The modern high-rises did okay, but it was the low-rise, nonengi- neered buildings that did suffer," Wight said. "The tide coming in the front end of the hurricane did wipe out a lot of wood structures." Wight added the incoming force of water, or hydraulic surge, was what wreaked much coastal damage in states such as Mississippi. The devastation of hydraulic surge is compounded during times of high tide, and Katrina was so massive and so slow moving that "both low and then high tide occurred as the thing was moving on shore," Samson said. As thentide surged in, "water ... pushed into New Orleans and lake Ponchartrain," Samson said. At that p .ittbeoi-y thing keepi'back the lake's waters from pouring into the adjoining New Orleans was a 300-mile network of levees. "If a hurricane makes landfall around that area, the counterclockwise winds will put a lot of stress on the levees," said Nikolaos-Katopodes, the chair of the civil and environmental engineering department. "The levees were upgraded back in 1965 to withstand a level-three hurricane," Katopodes said. , "It was clear there was a plan in place to increase the level of protec- tion, which would have required an increase in levee height," Steven Wright, a professor of civil and environmental engineering, said.. "The levee was constructed of a concrete wall on top of an earth- built levee," Wright said. "My understanding is that one failure was in major part caused by the impact of a barge with the levee itself." And yet, along those 300 miles, "only three points, the weakest points, failed in the levee system," Katopodes said. As widespread and visible as the current damage is, scientists are wary to draw too many conclusipps from this single disaster. "To sayhty particular storm'was. sa big because of global warming is a stretch," Samson said. Which is not to say that there weren't other long-term factors involved. "Every year the American Society of Civil Engineers gives the U.S. 'infrastructure a report card," Katopodes explained. "For the last five years, the country has gotten a 'D' ." "It's the basic maintenance issue ... It was clear there was a plan in place to increase the level of protection, but the government had other priorities," Wright said. The prediction of the hurricane was state of the art, you couldn't have wished for anything better," Katopodes said. "It's absolutely scary." "They knew how tall the levees were, they ran the models, they knew what would happen if this kind of storm came in," Samson said. "What are we gambling with next?" From mold toienti fying the dead, recovery efforts face challenges By Michael Kan Daily Science Editor With the hurricane recovery effort still in its early stages, University professors, who are experts in the field, anticipate authorities and hurricane evacuees will find a rotten landscape plagued by sewage and disease. Contamination and disease Technically, the entire city of New Orleans is contaminated says Rolf Deininger, professor of environmental health sciences. "People need to get out of there as soon as possible," he added. After the sewage waters flooded the city, Deininger said New Orleans became a cesspool that will need to be decontaminated to render it habitable. Deininger, an expert on water contamina- tion who has studied the effects of disasters on sanitation systems, said along with the sewage entering the flood waters, the water pipeline system may have became contaminated. JiYoung Lee, a research investigator at the environmental health sciences department who works with Deininger, said because New Orleans lost electricity with the hurricane, there would have been no way to power the water pressure that prevents the sewage water from mixing with the drinkable water in the pipelines. "Now you have to flush the entire system," Lee said. "You have to clean all the pipes." Lee added that many of the hurricane evacu- ees still residing in the city have weak immune systems because of the dire living conditions. With temperatures and humidity high, bacte- ria will easily be able to grow, putting evacu- ees at high risk of infectious disease, Lee said. Along with the bacteria, she added that people who are remaining the city could be easily infected from the toxic substances emanating from the sewage in the flood waters.- Deininger and Lee are also working to improve a technique that allows them to detect bacteria in water within 5 minutes. Current records and DNA. Despite these techniques, neither may prove to be of use to the identifica- tion efforts. "The problem with both of them is that all identification is comparison. Now there are no more postmortem records. They were washed away," Gobetti said, adding that many of the dental offices that housed the dental records of hurricane victims were destroyed in the flood- ing. Gobetti also said many of the hurricane vic- tims were from low-income families that may have never been able to afford appointments with their local dentist, meaning they may not have dental records. Comparing the disaster to Sept.11 Gobetti said, the deaths from the terrorist attack were in an isolated area. The deaths from Hurricane Katrina spread across hundreds of miles, and for this reason many bodies may be misreported as an unrelated hurricane fatality. And as the bodies continue to decompose, Gobetti said having family or friends identify bodies will become nearly impossible. "All the way around, its going to be terrible,' he said. Other ways to identify dead bodies are to use fingerprints, find identification in the clothing or place the dead as the residents of the homes they are found in. But Gobetti said, "I'm almost willing to bet we won't be able to identify all the bodies. The bodies will be too badly destroyed." If that is true, many families may have diffi- culties moving on with their lives not only emo- tionally, but also financially. "If it's a relative and you don't have a death certificate you can't settle life insurance polic- es," Gobetti said. "You can't remarry. You can't get social secu- rity payments. There are so many legal ramifi- cations with a death certificate." The threat of mold While the hurricane displaced thousands of RODRIGO GAYA/Daily University research investigator JiYoung Lee explains how she can detect bacteria in water samples with a new technique she is developing. the hurricane, Roth fears that entire neighbor- hoods may have become infested with mold. Not only will this cause physical damages to the inside of buildings, but could also cause aller- gic reactions if inhaled because mold spores are allergens. Sneezing, runny noses and skin rashes are some of the common symptoms if a person breathes in mold spores for an extended period of time. But the young and elderly, along with people who have weak immune systems, may develop more severe symptoms like asthma attacks or heart conditions that could be life threatening. "What happens if they go back to those areas and remain in those enclosed spaces? Roth asked. "The mold is growing and they would be breathing in a lot mold spores. People with pre- existing allergies and asthma, their symptoms would be exacerbated by that," he added. Mold takes time to develop Roth said, so he does not anticipate it will become an important issue in the shortterm. AP PHOTO A watercraft leaves a long wake through a neighborhood just south of the University of New Orleans. 7h§ ...