NEWS The Michigan Daily - Tuesday, January 11, 2005 - 3 . ON CAMPUS Student-athletes to host variety show for Mott In an effort to raise funds for C.S. Mott Children's Hospital, Michigan athletes will host a talent/variety show tonight at 7:30 p.m. in the Michigan Theater. The event, titled Mock Rock, will be hosted by Steve Clarke from 10:50 AM radio. Several U.S. Olympi- ans will serve as judges. Performers- include members from the football, softball, wrestling and hockey teams. Tickets are available at the Athletic Ticket office for $6 in advance and $8 at the door. Women's Studies presents study on 'successful' aging In a talk sponsored by the Universi- ty's Institute for Research and Gender, women's studies and linguistics Prof. Deborah Keller-Cohen will speak on the relationship between aging and language, focusing on people older than 85. Titled "Successful Aging: A Study of Language, Cognition and Social Contract in People Over 85," the lecture will start at noon and be in room 2239 of Lane Hall. A Capella group to hold auditions fThe Sopranos, the University's all- female a capella group, will hold try- outs tonight from 7 to 9 p.m. in the Bell Tower. E-mail sopranos @umich. Iedu to schedule an audition or walk in unannounced. CRIME NOTES Accident leads to fir alarm ringing in residence hall A fire alarm was set off early Sunday morning in Mary Markley Residence Hall because someone intentionally discharged a fire extin- guisher in the building, according to the Department of Public Safety. No suspects yet in case of cell phone theft A caller reported to DPS on Sunday that his cell phone was stolen from the Harlan Hatcher Graduate Library last month. There are currently no suspects in the case. Two people apprehended after soliciting business Two people were found attempting to solicit business on Sunday at 700 North University Ave., which is University prop- erty. DPS discovered them while they were setting up a table. They had a permit, but not the correct one, DPS said. The people were released without any citations or arrests. THIS DAY In Daily History Ann Arbor voted second-best city for women Jan. 11, 2000 - This month's Ladies Home Journal announced its third annual listing of the best cit- ies for women, and Ann Arbor rated second out of 200 cities nationwide behind Irvine, Calif. Reader polls fueled the decision- making process for the ranking. A low crime rate has consistently been a primary concern for women and carried the most weight in this year's rankings. Ann Arbor scored in the 90th percentile for low crime. Ann Arbor was ranked in the 44th GM to reduce payroll for fifth straight year DETROIT (AP) - General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, plans to trim its U.S. work force again in 2005, part of an ongoing effort to reduce costs, chairman'and chief executive Rick Wagoner said yesterday. GM has trimmed its U.S. payroll every year since 2000, company figures show. Wagoner, speaking to reporters at the North American International Auto Show, declined to place a number on targeted reductions, but he said the pattern likely would follow that of recent years. Through the third quarter of 2004, GM reduced its U.S. hourly work force by about 6 percent versus the same period in 2003 - from 119,000 to 112,000, GM figures show. For the same period, its smaller, sala- ried work force declined by 5 percent - from 40,000 to 38,000. The bulk of the reductions were through attrition and retirements, GM said. Wagoner said the attrition rate among salaried workers in the past few years has been about 2 percent, while the same rate for hourly workers has been roughly 5 percent. "We've hired people every year," Wag- -.:.oner said. "We'll continue to do that. But we don't hire on a one-for-one replace- ment. We may do one for two, one for three, depending on the plant and the loca- tion. The result is we've been able to signif- icantly improve productivity without any massive dislocations of our work force." But there will be layoffs inh2005. GM said late last year it will close an aging factory in Baltimore this year and idle 50GENE ROB TQ 6[)a ly another plant in Linden, N.J. Those moves On" at the 18th Annual Reverend D~r. Martin Luther King, Jr, will affect about 2,000 workers. Mnde soh het. GM, whose U.S. sales fell 1.4 percent in 2004, has been shrinking its work force roll into Detroit autoshow in recent years in the face of declining market share, weak automotive profits and mounting health care and pension costs. Globally, GM's employment fell from 388,000 in 2000 to 323,000 at the end of September. The company announced last month it plans to offer another round of early retirement offers and buyout packag- es to an undetermined number of its 38,000 U.S. salaried workers early this year. Once again, rising health care expenses will be a drain on profits. Those costs are a big reason some analysts predict GM's profits will fall this year versus 2004. "GM will be hard-pressed to prevent some erosion of earnings in 2005, given persisting sales weakness and cost pres- sures in North America plus the likely subsidence of results at (GM's finance arm) from recent record levels," Standard & Poor's said in a recent report. Also, S&P said, GM is likely to incur costly cash charges from an ongoing restructuring of its European operations. However, Wagoner said the forecast for reasonable growth in the U.S. econo- my this year bodes well for the industry, but the prospects of higher interest rates could be a negative. At GM in particular, Wagoner said he's optimistic about increased car sales because of several new entries from Cadil- lac, Chevrolet, Buick and other brands. He acknowledged that GM's aging truck line is likely to be another story. "Everybody else has their new prod- ucts," Wagoner said. "We'rexintheelatter part of our cycle. So we're going to have to fight there." On the New York Stock Exchange, GM shares closed down 51 cents at $38.49. Its 52-week low was $36.90 a share reached in October. Hybrids by the numbers Hybrids carmakers expect to sell in 2005 130E 7 Miles per hour a Toyota Prius achieved last August The year Toyota's U.S. manager Bill Reinert estimates that hybrids will represent half the automobile market 15 Highest percent of the market hybrids will ever command, GM's Tom Stephens estimates f Additional dollars hybrids currently cost above comparative gas-powered vehicles Hybrids DETROIT (AP) - For hybrid vehicles at this year's North Ameri- can International Auto Show, the "wow" factor is over. It's been nine years since Toyota Motor Co. first exhibited its Prius hybrid, the first gas-electric hybrid on the road. This year, automakers expect to sell 200,000 hybrid vehi- cles in the United States, according to Anthony Pratt, an analyst with J.D. Power and Associates. Automakers now have to do the tough work of increasing those sales by continually improving hybrid engines even as they keep hybrid prices down. Hybrids currently cost around $3,000 to $4,000 more than regular gas versions. Automakers also have to educate consumers who are still skeptical about the benefits and mechanics of hybrids. Throughout this year's auto show, prom- inent signs tell consumers that hybrids don't need to be plugged in, which auto- makers say is one of the biggest miscon- ceptions about the technology. Hybrids draw power from two energy sources, typically a gas or diesel engine combined with an electric motor, and surplus engine power is used to continually recharge the vehi- cle's battery. Automakers also are trying to convince consumers that hybrids can be just as powerful as traditional vehicles. It's no accident that at the Detroit show, Toyota is prominent- ly displaying a Prius that achieved 130.7 miles per hour at the Bonnev- ille National Speed Week in Utah last August. "It was amazing to see the hot-rod- ders come to accept it as just another variance," said Bill Reinert, the U.S. manager for Toyota's advanced tech- nology group. At the same time, automakers are wary of spending too much on a technology that may never cap- ture much of the market. Pratt says he thinks demand for hybrids will peak around 2011, at 3 percent of the market, because there's a limit to the number of customers willing to pay more for a vehicle that will save them a few hundred dollars a year on gas. "The average consumers aren't willing to pay that premium for a car they won't drive more than six years," Pratt said. Toyota is far more optimistic about consumer demand for hybrids. Rein- ert believes hybrids will be about half the market by 2025, based on the adoption of other technologies like laptops. As a result, Toyota has an aggres- sive plan to introduce hybrid versions in all vehicle segments in the near future. A hybrid Lexus RX400 sport utility vehicle goes on sale in April and already has 11,000 orders. Ford Motor Co., which uses Toyota's hybrid technology, is also introducing hybrids at a rapid rate. The company announced Sunday that it is adding four hybrid sedans and SUVs to its lineup over the next three years. On the other end of the spectrum are more skeptical automakers. Nis- san Motor Co. CEO Carlos Ghosn said this week that Nissan is still planning to sell a hybrid version of the Altima sedan in 2006, but will be watching the market before promis- ing more hybrids. Nissan also uses hybrid technology from Toyota. "We want to make sure we are not concentrating on one technology," Ghosn said. "But we are ready. We will not be surprised by any accel- eration or deceleration in the hybrid market." Porsche AG CEO Wendelin Wie- dekingis said yesterday that Porsche is considering a hybrid Cayenne SUV but won't make a decision until later this year. Volkswagen AG said last week it will push clean-burning diesel fuel over gas-electric hybrids. Among the companies in the mid- dle is General Motors Corp., which already sells hybrid pickups but with a less advanced system that saves kss fuel. GM introduced two hybrid con- cept vehicles this week and is developing a hybrid system similar to Toyota's. Eventually, GM envi- sions allowing customers to choose a hybrid system based on how much they want to pay and how much gas they want to save. Tom Stephens, GM's vice presi- dent for powertrains, said he expects hybrids will never command more than 15 percent of the market. "None of what you see here indi- vidually is a silver bullet," Stephens said. "We have to improve on all fronts."