Tuesday February 1, 2005 SCIENCE 5 0 news@michigandaily.com FOR ECASTING TI- New 'space weather' field aims to expand the reaches of By Steve Antalics For the Daily Anyone who has spent time in Michigan knows how difficult accurate weather forecasting can be - and that's just here on Earth. Imagine having to predict conditions across the entire chasm of space that lies between the Earth and the sun. Yet that daunting task is exactly what Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Science prof. Robert Clauer, and research- ers like him, are hoping to do. Clauer, co-director of the Center for Space Environ- ment Modeling at the University's Space Physics Research Lab, hopes to one day develop models that will be compa- rable in accuracy to terrestrial meteorology. While the distance between the sun and earth spans for millions of miles, the effects of the explosive weather on the star can extend even to our planet by disrupting satel- lites and electrical equipment on the ground. Clauer said, as of now, the field of space weather is still lagging behind current weather forecasting on the earth in terms of accuracy. "We're kind of where the meteorolo- gists were 20 years ago," he said. Despite the gap between technologies, Clauer added that, "The weather models have become accurate, in part, because they have a lot of data to put into those models. We don't think it's going to take 20 years because we're building on their experience and their work, although we have some new problems to overcome." The problem, according to Clauer, lies in the physical size of the area that researchers are trying to model, the sparse data on solar activity and the fact that matter between the Earth and the Sun is distrib- uted very unevenly, with some areas having much denser distributions than others. "We probably are never going to have (a high) level of data," Clauer said. "We're trying to develop data assimilation methods that will work with the sparse data we have." ButClauersaidtheirresearchutilizesthemostadvanced computer models that are specifically geared toward pre- dicting the weather on the sun. Adaptive mesh refinement, a computing technique that allows multiple computers to work simultaneously with rapidly changing areas of space that are both empty and dense, is one such model, Clauer explained. To understand those different areas in space, one must look to the activity of the sun. "Space weather is basically looking at how the sun and activity on the sun actually affects conditions around the Earth," said Susan Lepri, a research fel- low in the AOSS Department. "The sun has a con- tinuous solar wind that's always blowing charged particles in into space." Solar wind is a continuous stream of charged particles originating from the sun's atmosphere, the corona. In addition to the solar wind, which carries with it a magnetic field, the super-hot atmosphere of COURTESY OF NASA/SOHO A coronal mass ejection from the sun. the Sun often erupts in what are known as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. According to Lepri the solar flares release pri- e marily X-ray radiation, which can harm astronauts e in space, but they also release relatively small a amounts of charged particles. a Coronal mass ejections, on the other hand, can release i tens of billions of tons of charged particles into space. The real damage to the Earth, Lepri and Clauer said, comes from those charged particles, known as plasma, and their interactions with everything from satellites to power grids. "The electrical currents have consequences - spacecrafts can get charged and have arcing between their components." "Both commercial and military communications satellites can be affected," Clauer added. The elec- tric field induced by changing current, he said, can wreak havoc even if it is very small, if it's conducted across large systems such as pipelines or power grids. This current can even blow up power transformers, causing blackouts. One of the largest blackouts in history, which affected nearly six million people in Quebec in 1989, was attrib- uted to a solar storm. The most recent storm, caused by a coronal mass ejection, occurred on Jan. 20, causing a brilliant aurora in Europe but had otherwise no effect on the earth. Nev- ertheless, power companies are particularly interested in when the next solar storm may occur. "If (power companies) know there is something com- ing," Clauer explained, "they can cut back or they can re- route power into smaller segments. But it costs money. So you have to be able to make a prediction that's reliable. We're not really there yet." UPPER RIGHT CORNER: Ultra- hot helium erupts 'k from the sun as a solar flare. iRAPHIC: "Solar wind," a stream of charged particles jected from the sun, causes the Earth's magnetic fleid o bend away from the Earth in a teardrop shape. The solar wind , nd solar flares (above) also cause "space weather" that can' &sHN5' nterfere with satellites and electrical equipment on Earth. solar wind CnagletoSP ea2t sun - I LINDSEY UNGAR/Daily Scientist finds surprising links between arthritis and tuberculosis By Sunil Patel For the Daily When Pfizer research scientist Jim Moh- ley was asked to switch his research focus from asthma to arthritis, he had no idea he would stumble upon a fascinating concept that may change the way pharmaceutical companies develop drugs. And surprisingly enough, he made this discovery not in the lab but in the library. By researching current literature, ana- lyzing epidemiology - the study of disease patterns in human populations - and look- ing at archeological records, he hypoth- esized a relationship between rheumatoid arthritis and tuberculosis. Central to this idea is the notion that epidemics may play a role in human evolution. Rheumatoid arthritis is different from osteoarthritis - the most common form that results from the normal wear and tear of the joints. RA is one of the many autoimmune diseases such as lupus, Type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis. "(Autoimmune diseases) are incorrect usages of our immune system," Mobley said. "Our immune system thinks that it's fighting something foreign when it's not" In the case of RA, the unwitting casual- ties are usually the smaller joints, like the fingers and wrists. According to Mobley, 1 to 2 percent of Americans are affected by the disease. Tuberculosis,onthe otherhand,is caused by an infection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The bacteria enter the lungs, eventually mak- ing it very difficult for the victim tobreathe. It is possible to carry the bacteria without con- tracting the disease, though. While very rare in the United States, the disease still kills two million people each year worldwide. On the surface, an autoimmune disorder and a bacterial infection seem to have noth- ing in common. The former is causedby cells in the immune system attacking the body's own tissue, and the latter is primarily a respi- ratory disease causedby foreign bacteria. The symptoms are nothing alike. Since Mobley was unfamiliar with RA, he was ableto examine the field with a fresh eye. This allowed him to notice unusual trends in the literature other scientists may have over- looked. "I paid attention to those things that were unique to this disease - that really didn't make sense to me," he said. Two things struck a chord. First, he saw throughout scientific studies that animals injected with one species of bacteria were most likely to contract RA. This species was Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Second, he found interesting cases involving Enbrel, a drug used to treat RA. Enbrel blocks tumor necrosis factor, a chemical messenger that alerts surround- ing cells of infection. "It tells the surrounding cells that 'I've been infected by something - you'd better pay attention,' "Mobley said. While blocking TNF stops an overactive immune system from attacking itself, it also sometimes caused people who carried the tuberculosis bacteria to contract TB. This may be because TNF is important for TB immunity. "There had to be, in my mind, some cau- sality to tuberculosis," Mobley said. Newton's apple came in the form of two books, one on tuberculosis and one on rheu- matoid arthritis. From one he learned where and when the major TB epidemics had occurred - the most recent one was over two hundred years ago in Europe. From the other he discovered RA was not spread out uniformly across the world population as he had thought - certain countries and popula- tions had higher incidences than others. Mob- ley had these two books within a few feet of each other, these sources of information on two seemingly unrelated diseases. And in a momentof serendipity, he saw the connection. The higher incidences of RA "almost per- fectly mirrored" the death rates from TB, Mobley said. A certain Native American pop- ulation had peak death rates from TB nearly seven times higher than those in England and North America over the last two hundred years. Generations later, this same population Conservation expert speaks on biodiversity By Brandon Harig Daily Staff Reporter Claims of an untimely end to human existence have persisted for centuries, but recently, a growing awareness of environmental issues has awoken many to the potentially devastating impact of mankind on the planet. Tomorrow Peter Raven - who has garnered widespread attention for his perspective on biodiversity as a crucial peg in sustaining livable Raven conditions on earth - will speak to the University community about environmental challenges for humanity. The lecture, "Global Sustainability: Our future, our role," is being presented through the School of Natural Resources and Environment in cooperation with the Mat- thaei Botonical Gardens and Nichols Arboretum. The goal of the lecture is to bring awareness of the impor- tance of conservation both abroad and at home. For the talk, Raven will draw on his expertise in bio- diversity, the preservation of biodiversity and its role in human health and livelihood. He will focus on the world's current environmental condition and on future global conservation challenges. Raven will also discuss the important role of institutions such as the botanical gardens and Nichols Arboretum in addressing global conservation challenges. While high-profile lectures are common at the Uni- versity, Raven is unusually well decorated in his field. He has received the United States National Medal of Sci- ence, the highest medal awarded for scientific work in the United States. Amid a host of smaller honors, he has also held a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship, informally dubbed the "genius" award. In 1999, Time featured Raven as a "Hero for the planet." "Dr. Raven has received just about every environ- mental award on the planet, and is an authority on many issues related to global sustainability, including plan- etary extinction of biodiversity, genetically modified organisms and the effect of climate change on biodiver- sity," said Rosina Bierbaum, Dean of SNRE. Though his main focus is botany, Dr. Raven is also an expert on biodiversity and sustainability. Raven earned his reputation when he and colleague Paul Erlich devel- oped the notion of "co-evolution" - a theory stating that different species evolve side-by-side, relying on each other through each stage of evolution and grow- ing increasingly codependent. Acclaimed for his work as director at the Missouri Botanical Gardens, Raven is also credited with transforming the gardens into a world- renowned center for botanical research. The lecture will be held in Hale Auditorium in the Ross School's Assembly Hall tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. The event is open to all University students and staff, as well as to the public, and will be followed by a reception. -Naila Moreira contributed to this report. A microscopic image of Mycobacterlum tuberculosis, the bacteria tuberculosis. had rates of RA nearly seven times higher than the rest of the world. In Africa, where TB had been relatively nonexistent, RA was E . now also absent. Epidemics can Because the matching trends were more L than 100 years apart, Mobley surmised that g e c a the connection had something to do with essence ca usi n genetics and natural selection. Other diseases also possess this relation- evolution on a ship with one another. The genetic mutation that causes sickle cell anemia, if only present scale on one chromosome, affords protection from malaria. Similarly, only one mutation of the gene that causes cystic fibrosis gives protec- Medical Hypotheses, asking tion for cholera-induced diarrhea. Mobley arthritis a consequence o also noted two diseases with a direct relation- tion for enhanced tubercul ship - a mutation that provided resistance to Bruce Rothschild, who had the bubonic plague now seems to make those archaeological evidence that survivors' descendants HIV-resistant. hypothesis, contacted Mot The common thread is epidemics. Epi- found thatsprior to 1785 there demics can induce genetic change, in essence RA in Europe - only aftert causing evolution on a small scale. Survivors TB epidemics. This suggest of epidemics can pass their resistance on to were responsible for the exis future generations, but those without resis- In addition, 6500-1000 ye tance take their weak genes to the grave. place in the world Rothsch "This is Darwinian selective pressure at its detect RA was in a small r best," Mobley said. population between the Tens "Genetic mutations that allowed people to Rivers. This population sho survive tuberculosis epidemics two hundred of having had tuberculosis. years ago are combining and coming together Because other population in the descendants of those individuals, mak- ica showed evidence of tube ing their immune systems very much stronger thought this Native Ame and unfortunately, inducing these autoim- may have been a group of mune-type diseases," he said. survived a TB epidemic, the Mobley published his idea in the journal See ART induce e, in small g "Is rheumatoid f natural selec- osis resistance?" been looking at fit with Mobley's bley. Rothschild was norecord of the occurrence of ed the epidemics stence of RA. ars ago, the only hild was able to Native American nessee and Green wed no evidence s in North Amer- rculosis, Mobley rican population people who had ir resistance then HRITIS, Page 7 An X-ray of a patient afflicted with arthritis