0 T,____ ____ _____ ml-ld -- - ..-..--. .. . CI-- --- . r w 06 a 8 - The Michigan Daily - Football Saturday - October 30, 2004 SORTING OUT THE BCS Collegebcs.com founder and computer rankings guru Jerry Palm speaks with Michigan Daily football writer Bob Hunt about issues surrounding college football's biggest topic of debate. The Michigan Daily - Footb Rivals prepared for battle By Chris Burke Daily Sports Editor In 1994, after reading about the Ratings Per- centage Index (used to help decide what teams make the NCAA Tournament) in a magazine, Jerry Palm, then a systems analyst for a bank in Chicago, decided to replicate the formula himself. The Purdue graduate, computer nut and avid sports fan cre- ated collegerpi.com, and the site flourished. He then cre- ated collegebcs.com in 1999 to break down the BCS for- mula. Palm is currently one f most popular sports talk radio hosts around. Palm spoke with Michigan Daily football writer Bob Hunt about the BCS. Palm The Michigan Daily: What should Michigan fans be hoping for besides a Wisconsin loss as far as playing in a BCS bowl? Jerry Palm: I would think the biggest thing %would be somebody beating Texas along the way. Oklahoma getting into the Orange Bowl would be good because Michigan has a chance to be the highest-rated one-loss team. The best chance is if Oklahoma goes to the Orange Bowl, which opens up a spot in the Fiesta Bowl (the Big XII champ goes to the Fiesta Bowl if it is not selected for the title game) and Texas has a loss, so it really doesn't have a good Big XII team available, and Michigan becomes a nice option for them. Probably the biggest surprise in the rankings last week is that Michigan didn't get more of a boost for beating Purdue. I'd really thought they would move up at least past Utah. TMD: Who do you think the recent changes in the formula benefit? JP: We may not know really until the end of the year. I think teams that play a bad schedule are going to benefit because strength of schedule has been minimized. So, like Auburn, you may say, "How could they play an easy schedule, it plays in the SEC." (But) they play a bad non-con- ference schedule, and it's in the weaker division of the SEC. Really, Michigan may end up bene- fiting - they're non-conference schedule wasn't all that good, and it misses Wisconsin in the Big Ten. That's kind of hurt it in the computers, but the computers don't have as much emphasis in (the BCS standings) this year and there is no strength of schedule factor. So teams that don't play a tough nonconference schedule won't be hurt as much. One thing to keep in mind about this new for- mula is that it does not fix any of the perceived problems of the past. Everything that people have perceived to have gone wrong in the past can still go wrong again in this formula. You can have a team that doesn't win its conference play for the title. You can have No. 1 vs. No. 3. You can even have No. 2 vs. No. 3 if there is not enough con- sensus among the top three teams. If that happens again, you'll see reaction, which is what they do. TMD: How has the stripping of the margin of victory in these computer rankings affected things? JP: It's ironic. They haven't stripped it. They took it out of the computers, but now that they have more influence on the polls, the polls don't care about strength of schedule, but they do care about margin of victory. If you play a bad oppo- nent, and you don't beat them bad enough, you could get hurt in the polls, which is two-thirds of the formula. After a couple of years ago when they took it out of the computers, that really reduced its impact on the formula. Now, they give the polls so much influence, they've gone more with margin of victory than they have with strength of schedule. TMD: Do you think the recent changes in the formula have been for the better? JP: No, I think it's worse. I don't think the vot- ers do a good job ranking teams. I don't think they should be comfortable with the level of authority that they have. There's just so many ways that it's wrong, and you're giving two-thirds influence over these formulas. Voters just don't have the time to do a proper job of it. WHAT DOES THIS THING ENTAIL ANYWAY? The Bowl Championship Rankings change every year, and 2004 was no exception. Unlike previous years, the BCS ranking will no longer include a strength of schedule ranking, only a compiled rating based on human polls and computer rankings. The ranking has also changed so that the a team's final score is a per- centage instead of a number. Here's a breakdown of what goes into this year's formula: Human polls (two-thirds of total): Both the Associated Press poll and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll count for for one-third of the total. For each poll, a team is given a percentage score based on the amount of points it receives in that week and the number of points pssible. For example, Michigan had 985 points in the week's AP poll, soit had a percentage score of .606 (985/1625). No. I Southern Cal had 1,610 points, so it had a percentage of .991. Computer rankings (one-third of total): The six computer rankings (run by Jeff Anderson-Chris Hester, Richard Bilfingrsley Wes Colley, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolf) are treated as if they are voters in one mi-poll. For each team, the highest and lowest ranking is dropped, and the four remaining rankings are used and an average is taken. This week, Michigan is ranked 12th in the Anderson -Hester, 7th in the Billingsley, 14th in the Colley, 18th in the Massey, 19th in the Sagarin and 14th in the Wolf. Its rankings in the Billingsley and Sagarin were dropped, and an percentage (46/100) was taken out of the four remaining rankings. Michigan currently has the 15th- highest compuiter ranking average, which is its lowest ranking within the three BCS components. ittle is kiown about what goes into each ranking becausejjust one ranking (Coley's) is available to the pub- Nit none of the six rankings take into account margin ofictory,' as mandated by the BCS. Each of the three percentages are averaged to calculate a BCS percentage. The teams with the two highest pereages will play in the Orange Bowl for the national tte. li the event of a tie, whlchever teami has beaten the highest-ranked team over the season would win the tiebreaker. There's always plenty of discussion about which team is Michigan's bigger football rival: Michigan State or Ohio State. But, for Michigan linebacker Joey Sarantos - a Portage native whose brother, Paul, is also on the Wolverine roster - the answer is clear. "To me growing up, I always thought of Michigan State as the biggest rivalry," Sarantos said. "I didn't learn until later that a lot of people thought Ohio State was the biggest one. To me, I still consider Michigan State the biggest." As someone who grew up in the state of Michigan, Sarantos is just one of many involved in Saturday's game between No. 12 Michigan (5-0 Big Ten, 7-1 overall) and Michigan State (3- 1, 4-3) that have spent their lives entranced with the rivalry. And it's that intrastate interest that makes the annual Wolverines-Spartans skirmish a highly anticipated affair. "As a kid, you hear Michigan vs. Michigan State and you feel that rivalry," Sarantos said. "I always grew up not liking the colors green and white, especially together. "It's definitely a big game every year, and this year is no exception." On the other side of the ball, Michigan State coach John L. Smith lost his debut against Michigan last year, 27-20, in East Lansing, but will be making his first trip to the Big House as the Spartans' head man. In the 2003 contest, Smith got enough of a taste of the rivalry to understand its magnitude. "Why do I keep getting the question, 'This is a big rivalry for Michigan State and not a very big rivalry for Michigan?' "Smith said at his weekly press conference. "It's the biggest game of the year for us. I can't speak for them. "To make this a big rivalry, we have to con- tribute. We have to start winning some of these games to make it what (the rivalry) should be, and what it can be." Saturday's game will mark the 97th time Michigan and Michigan State have done battle on the football field, with Michigan sporting a 63-28-5 record in the series. The Wolverines will also be trying to hold onto the Paul Bunyan Trophy, which has been awarded to the winner of the matchup since 1953. But while both teams would love to take the trophy home, that doesn't mean that the win- ner will admire it much over the next year. "I think it's the ugliest trophy in college foot- ball," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said. "But you know that doesn't mean that we don't love it. And we want to give him a nice, secure place to live and to spend his years - we're going to fight to keep him." Michigan senior offensive lineman David Baas thinks the biggest problem with the Paul Bunyan Trophy is that the figure on top doesn't look so much like Bunyan as one of Baas's fel- low linemen. "It looks like (Matt) Lentz with an axe," Baas said. Still, the Wolverines know the rivalry has big- ger implications than just a piece of hardware. In this year's game, both Michigan and Michigan State will be playing to stay near the top of the Big Ten standings. Michigan enters the game tied with Wiscon- sin for first place in the conference, while the Spartans have been one of the Big Ten's bigger surprises. Since a season-opening upset loss at lowly Rutgers, Michigan State has made an impressive turnaround - culminating with a 51- 17 shellacking of Minnesota two weekends ago. "It looked like a much-improved team from earlier in the season, and from last season, they look a lot better," Michigan cornerback Marlin Jackson said. That turnaround has been spearheaded by sophomore quarterback Drew Stanton. The for- mer Farmington Hills Harrison standout severe- ly injured his knee while on special teams in Michigan State's Alamo Bowl appearance last year. But Stanton has returned strong, taking over the Michigan State offense in its Big Ten opener at Indiana. Since then, Stanton has passed for more than 1,000 yards and rushed for 454 more - good enough to lead the team in both categories. "That is always a challenge for a defense, going against a quarterback that can run as well as pass," Jackson said. "He can drop back, and you can have everybody covered, but he can take off at any time. That is going to be a tough thing to go against." With the Stanton-led Spartans charging up the conference standings, Saturday's game has taken on the feel of a potentially epic chapter in this rivalry. "Where would you rather be?" Michigan linebacker Roy Manning said. "The Big Ten championship on the line, playing at home, play- ing in an in-state rivalry. There's so much riding on this game, I'm sure everyone on both sides of the ball are going to be excited." TMD: Do you think the powers that be have become a little paranoid of computer rankings after what happened last year (with the No. 1 team in both polls not making the title game)? JP: They don't understand them. The BCS hon- chos get in trouble every time No. 1 and No. 2 in the polls don't play each other. And so they kept changing things to the formula, adding things to the formula to try and fix the previous year's problems. They're reactive, not proactive. And this is yet again a reaction to what happened last year. They figured out that by adding more to the formula, you're giving each factor less influence. So, if they want more influence for the polls, they - .- .............................. . . . 1. 1 . . 1, . . - . '- . . I ; ; ; ; 1. .. ; . 1 . :. . ;.: '. "" "" :, . , . .;. 1. - . - ,, , . ;, ; I ;.. ; I ; .1. ; ; ; . . :.., .. .. ... . . . . . . BOWL CHAMPIONS) TEAM I Southern Cal.. 2 Oklahoma 3 Miami 4 Auburn 5 Florida State 6 Utah 7 Wisconsin 8 California 9 Georgia 10 Texas 11 Tennessee 12 Michigan 13 Boise State 14 Texas A&M 15 Arizona State 16 Virginia. 17 Louisville 18 West Virginia 19 Oklahoma State 20 LSU 21 Purdue 22 Virginia Tech 23 lowl 24 UTEP 25 Minnesota ASSOCIATEDI RANK POINTS 10 2 4 3 5 19 6 7 10 83 1 12 18 1.3 _14 19 17! 2' 2 3 33 24 1610 1567 1441 1486 1266 1103 1265; 1234 1039 1125 1006 985 552 639 425 765 728 686 425 461 5r53 289 1911 5 KIP SERIES STANDINGS PRESS USA TODAY/ESPN COMPUTER RANKINGS BCS % RANK POINTS "o A&H RB CM KM JS PW COMP, AVG. % BCS AVG PREV .991 1 1513 .992 24 24 25 25-24.24- 2 .970 .9843 1 .964 2 1469 .963 22 25 23 19 17 23 4 .870 .9325 3 .87 3 1380 .905 25 23 24 24.25 25 1 .980 .9239 2 .914 4 1358 .80 23 22 22 22 23 22 890 .8983 4 .779 5 1218 .799 19 16 20 20 20 16 .7 .750 .7759 .679 10 1001 .656 21 14 19 23 22 21 5 .830 .7217 .778 6 1152 .755 18 15 15 14 15,.11t .6Z0 .7180 .759 8 1066 .699 10 7 10. 15.1314 14 470 6428 .639 7 1127 .739 12 17 14 13 8 9 .480 6195 .692 9 11032 .677 13 20 13 11......... .12.480 .6163 1 .619 12 864 .567 16 2118 17..14. 10 ..660 .6152 9 ,606 11 970 .636 14 19 12 8.... 2 15 574 3 .340 115 638 .418 15 18 16 16.21. .9 .9 .690 .4827 14 .393 17 503 .130 17 11 17 18.9.20 8 .710 .4777 16 .62 21 346 .227 20 12 21 21 18 18 6 .770 4195 .471 14 660 .433 9 8 9 9 11 7 8 .350 . .448 16 582 .382 8 1 8 10 6 T0.,7 .422 13 738 .484 1 5 4 4 3 3 22 .140 ,3487 20 .262 20 415 .272 11 10 11 12 12 13 15 .460 3312 .21 .284 18 477 .313 5 13 7 6 4 6 19 .240 .2788 19 .340 19 457 .300 & 9 3 1 1 2 23 .120 .2533 2- .178 22 338 .222 0 0 0 0 NR .000 1332 .2 < .118 24 89 .058 7 6 5 2 5 21:0 .210 .1286 .003 39 3 .0 2 0 0 6 7 9 8 20 .210 .0717 . .057 23- . 176 ... .5 2< 9', .. (1f1 0<- 0'', Nt .010 .0609 have to take things out of the formula. It's closer to what they want as far as getting No. 1 and No. 2 in the polls, but they can't just go with the polls, because they know the polls don't do a good job, and the AP considers that too much making news and not enough covering news. They're really uncomfortable withethe ethics of that. Now, the way they are calculating the votes, one guy could decide whether Utah gets $15 million or not. One guy could vote Utah sixth instead or seventh, and that could be the vote that puts them into the $15 million game. Ethically, that's a big problem for the journalists. It makes it an even bigger problem for the coaches, but they just don't care. TMD: How are the rankings incorporated in the BCS selected? JP: When they first did it in 1998, Roy Kramer (former BCS and SEC commissioner) he picked a few, and they went and looked at old results for these rankings, and they picked three. In 1999, they went from three to eight. They actually asked me at the time about using the RPI, so I gave them some data for the RPI, and they ulti- mately didn't pick it. They looked at various rat- ings systems that you can find on the Internet, and they looked at results. But they don't know the formula. It's not like they know what these guys are doing. TMD: So the BCS doesn't have access to the actual formulas for these rankings? JP: Yes. They basically ask the computer guys "So, what goes into your formula." And, he'll say "Well, home-and-road, wins and losses, strength of schedule and margin of victory." (The BCS) is basically taking their word for it. I guess there's no reason not to take their word for it, but they're taking their word for it. TMD: What would you say to someone that says, "At least the polls are the opinion of 65 people, whereas the computer rankings are the opinion of one? JP: The thing about a computer ranking is See PALM, Page 10 kxy 7+ q'p' J i f 2 vd: d. 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