4 - The Michigan Daily - Friday, October 1, 2004 OPINION ZIe ffikkttguu &dlg 420 MAYNARD STREET ANN ARBOR, MI 48109 tothedaily@michigandaily.comr EDITED AND MANAGED BY STUDENTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SINCE 1890 JORDAN SCHRADER Editor in Chief JASON Z. PESICK Editorial Page Editor Unless otherwise noted, unsigned editorials reflect the opinion of the majority of the Daily's editorial board. All other pieces do not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Michigan Daily. NOTABLE QUOTABLE ' Well, actually, you forgot Poland." - President Bush, during last night's presidential debate, in response to Kerry's assertion that the United States went to war with only two major allies: Australia and Great Britain. SAM BUTLER T S. s;x - Hazardous driving SAM SINGER SAM'S CLUB here's good news and bad news. The good news, which really isn't news at all, is the global economy. Fueled by unprecedent- ed growth in South and East Asia and skillfully maneuvered by collab- orative macroeconomic policy, the international market system has been hugging corners like a new sports car. Having outperformed even the most optimistic of forecasts, it seems to have finished its ascent from the red ink and shak- en off what was left of its post-Sept. 11 slug- gishness. The bad news, according to a recent Centre for Global Energy Studies analysis, is it may be driving without an airbag. In its precisely timed press release, the Lon- don-based energy consultancy firm argues that the Organization of Petroleum Export- ing Countries, a multinational cartel that for decades has served the international economy as a paramedic squad during energy supply crises, is losing its market clout. Arriving just days after the trading community had flouted an OPEC effort to relax supply markets with higher export ceilings - a snubbing that amounted to public emasculation for the petro alliance - the market-sobering report landed on trading floors with instant validation. Pre- suming the study's chief assumption holds water, that OPEC, arguably the world's most powerful multinational institution, has lost its price-swinging savvy, the global economy may be approaching the coldest winter it's seen in years. To say that the growth trajectories of inter- national markets rest beneath the spigot of OPEC's vast oil reserves would only be tell- ing half the story. For the past two decades, the cartel has used its immense stockpile capacity to shelter world energy markets from what would have otherwise been some of history's most crippling price shocks. In the early 1980s, when production compli- cations stemming from the Iran-Iraq war shrank OPEC's market share by 7 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia (OPEC's king- pin and most well-endowed affiliate) opened the flood gates - a move that almost imme- diately stabilized prices and soothed infla- tion pains. Less than a decade later, in an effort to hush war-time energy anxieties, OPEC (with obvious dissension from Iraq) agreed to hoist export quotas throughout the duration of Operation Desert Storm to fill the gap left by a projected production dearth. And more recently, when Venezuela's energy sector was debilitated by wide-scale labor unrest, instead of basking in the higher energy pre- miums that accompanied the supply disrup- tion, cartel members voted to turn on the faucet once more. Though these policy deci- sions were far from gestures of benevolence (the organization has long-term financial incentives in keeping petroleum affordable), they were nonetheless reminiscent of a pro- tracted period of time when the cartel had the reserve flexibility to blunt the impact of global price tremors. So does OPEC still have the goods to glut the markets? The CGES study indicates that, despite numerous attempts over the past year, the cartel has failed to lay the price of crude to rest in between its target margins of $22 and $28 a barrel. And if you're half as shocked as I was to learn that OPEC, once considered the global economy's security blanket, could let current prices (now teetering around the $50 mark) reach twice their sustainable target lev- els, then consider this: With the U.S. economy surging, and double-digit growth in China and India a monthly phenomenon, the CGES anticipates that added global demand will boost consumption levels by two million bar- rels per day over the next fiscal year. Now here comes the scary part: The firm estimates that in 2005, tightened energy markets will plunge OPEC's spare exporting capacity to a thin 1.5 million barrels per day - a figure that falls markedly short of accommodating projected demand intensity. You do the math, folks. If the numbers are right, this is no longer about wiggle room or reserve space - it's about an actual supply deficit. So assuming OPEC's price-swinging hands are sufficiently tied, is the international econ- omy capable of self-stabilizing while still trav- eling at its current speed? If there is in fact no cushion from the brunt of a major supply disruption, should monetary officials continue forward with their feet off the brakes? Let's consider the circumstances of our key energy suppliers: There's Saudi Arabia, embroiled in an internal holy war, where policy analysts have given the embattled monarchy 18 months before it crumbles from within, or Nigeria, where separatist rebels are threatening to siege the country's multinational oil installations if political autonomy demands aren't met. What about Russia, a nation whose largest oil pro- ducer has been effectively dismembered by a central government tax audit? And we can't forget Iraq, a country where pipeline sabotage attacks have grown as common as Al-Jazeera broadcasts. Personally, I'd like the airbag back. Singer can be reached at singers@umich.edu. *1 You'd better earn my vote! JASMINE CLAIR THE MEANING OF PROGRESS s I sat humor- blacks' rights that were long owed to us, it was most prized anti-affirmative action spokes- lessly watching fearless individuals such as Fannie Lou Hamer person across my chest as a silent protest to Michael Moore, who were "sick and tired of being sick and tired." Moore and all of his lies. the college dropout, boast Hamer was in fact a Democrat, but what Sharp- I started to think about the message that I that most Americans were ton's speech completely ignored was the fact that was sending to others by wearing that Bush "C" students and below she was a member of the dissident Democratic shirt. Did it represent an anti-affirmative and that's why they side group that she had formed after being denied action stance that the YAFers so proudly take with Bush, I started to real- access to the segregationist Democratic party in on? Was it anti-black to wear this shirt, in ize just how difficult liberal her town, the same party that adamantly fought to light of the likelihood of over 90 percent of spin is going to make this keep Hamer from speaking at the 1964 Democrat- the vote probably being stacked up against year's election for me. So ic Convention because of the color of her skin. I Bush once more? Or even worse, was it just you don't like George Bush or his policies? Fine, I found it ironic that Sharpton credited the segrega- anti-Me? don't like some of them either, but if the Democrats tionists whom had discriminated against Hamer, Well, all I know is that this year Bush's want my vote, they'd better earn it because I'm not with the gains that so many black non-Democrats administration is more than 200 percent buying that "anybody but Bush" rhetoric that I was had lost their lives fighting for. In a silent protest, more diverse than this year's freshman class. drowned in at Moore's Dem. rally. I threw on my Bush tee. Ironic, seeing as how this university is the Many would agree that the president has made Once again, sporting my white Bush-Cheney supposed bastion of diversity. Further, I some questionable decisions concerning this T-shirt, I crashed Michael Moore's liberal propa- remember watching "Fahrenheit 9/11" and alleged "war on terror," healthcare, the economy, ganda festival in Hill Auditorium the other night. seeing each member of the Congressional education, the environment, outsourcing ... I'm "Fahrenheit 9/11" was absolutely hysterical, with Black Caucus have his proposal to have an running out of paper here. Bush must be held all the liberal juice that a girl could ever ask for. It investigative hearing concerning the Florida accountable for his failures while in office, but I undeniably reassured all that Bush was a racist bas- elections denied because no member could have to keep in mind that once President Bush is tard with an insatiable thirst for power, money, oil garner a single signature from any one of the out of office, there will still be four more years of and revenge - nothing shocking there. However, 100 senators. Hopefully this part of Moore's administration that will require strong and effec- the surprise came once I realized that this movie film was propaganda as well, because I don't tive leadership. And for that reason, I have my is blatant propaganda. Masquerading liberal spin want to believe that both John Kerry and John Bush-Cheney T-shirt. I wear it whenever some as fact, "Fahrenheit 9/11" was a Kerry ad at best, Edwards, who will undeniably get the black liberal says something that upsets me. lacking the integrity and unbiased perspective of a voting block, sat there and did nothing while Prior to last night, I wore the shirt to protest a true documentary. hundreds of black voices went unheard. particular speech that deeply offended me at the Feeling betrayed, but hoping to see him give I know many do not appreciate me wearing Democratic National Convention. Given by Al some sort of explanation for his deceitfulness, I my Bush shirt. But this is my way of saying to Sharpton in a response to Bush's accusation that reluctantly threw on my Bush tee and headed over my people that we have become complacent the black vote was being taken for granted by the to Hill. Upon arriving, I gave dap to the members within the Democratic Party. Just as blacks Democratic Party, it effectually sold out progres- of Young Americans for Freedom outside protest- will hold the Republicans accountable at elec- sive black grassroots movements for a party and ing the event with their "No Moore Lies" signs. tion time, this same accountability needs to political influence. By giving almost complete Yes, it did feel awkward agreeing with the be applied toward liberals. It's just too bad credit for the black voting and civil rights to the same group that I had been flipping the bird to that this election really doesn't hold any other Democratic Party, Sharpton completely under- over the past years for their arrogant and ill- viable options ... except for that one guy. mined the hard work and dedication of all of the informed stances on affirmative action. Yet, grassroots activists that fought to have their voices upset that I actually believed this "documen- Clair can be reached at heard. It was not the Democratic Party who won tary" to be nonfictional, I proudly wore their jclair@umich.edu. LETTER TO THE EDITOR Proposal 2 will not pass, ..w *W2,. country - are uncomfortable with the idea of marri,e for aa v nd 1pehin lC4nHwever nolls should Proposal 2 pass. As people are learning how far-reachinQ this amendment is the sunnort i