68 -'The Michigan Daily - FOOTBALL SATURDAY - Friday, November 9, 2001 w 7W Friday, November 9, 2001-- FOOTBALL SA 'M', Golden Gophers both facing a must-win situation By Arun Gopal Daily Sports Writer College football is overrun with a glut of "trophy games." These games pit two "rivals" against each other, with some type of prize going to the winner. Many of these "rivalries" - the "Land Grant" contest between Penn State and Michigan State comes to mind - seem rather forced and unnecessary. But, the "Little Brown Jug" game between Michigan and Minnesota is one rivalry game which fits the billing. Although the Wolverines have dominated this matchup over the last quarter-century, that does not dimin- ish the importance of Saturday's game. Michigan still controls its own destiny in the race for the Big Ten title - if the Wolverines win out, they are headed to the BCS. The Golden Gophers would love nothing more than to shatter Michigan's title dreams. MICHIGAN RUSHING OFFENSE VS. MINNESOTA RUSHING DEFENSE: The Wolverines' ground game has been subpar, to say the least. B.J. Askew and Chris Perry have had some suc- cess at times, but at other times - such as last week's game against Michigan State - Michigan has been completely unable to run the ball. Fortunately for Michigan, the Golden Gophers' defense is nothing to write home about. Last week, Minnesota allowed an abysmal Ohio State offense to roll up 265 yards on the ground. Ohio State ran the ball 47 times and averaged 5.6 yards per carry, numbers which should have Michigan offensive coordinator Stan Parrish salivating. Edge: Michigan MICHIGAN PASS OFFENSE VS. MINNESOTA PASS DEFENSE: After play- ing solidly, if not spectacularly, in leading Michigan to a 5-1 start, quarterback John Navarre has strug- gled in his last two games. Against Iowa and Michigan State, Navarre threw four interceptions and had all sorts of problems maintaining dri- ves. Part of Navarre's problem is that he has developed tunnel vision - if he doesn't throw to Marquise Walker, he doesn't throw to anybody. But - much like the rest of Michigan's offense - Walker disap- peared in the second half last week. ,He caught only two passes and dropped several others. Where were Michigan's other receivers? Good question. Wideouts Ron Bellamy, Tyrece Butler and Calvin Bell combined for two catch- es against Michigan State, Meanwhile, the Wolverines' tight ends had one catch - by Bennie Joppru, which went for no gain. But, once again, here comes Minnesota's defense to help the Wolverines get better. The Golden Gophers allowed Ohio State's Steve Bellisari - who has had games of 5- Will real 'M' run defense stand up?. By Jon Schwartz Daily Sports Writer Michigan's rush defense has gone through quite a role-reversal in the last week. Once laud- ed as the nation's best, there are now many questions about its strength. After holding their first seven opponents to just 54.5 yards per game on the ground, the Wolverines were manhandled by T.J. Duckett, who ran for 211 yards. "Well, T.J. Duckett is definitely a tremendous back," defensive lineman Grant Bowman said. "He's a big guy. He's definitely got tremendous ability and he got rolling early. They were able to do some things against our defense and expose some things that we weren't covering as well as we should. "Once he got rolling he was hard to stop and it's hard for 200-pound safeties to go in there and stop a guy that's 250 pounds and running at full speed." It's very common for great teams to have bad games. That could have been the Wolverines' problem. Or, it could be a symptom of overcon- fidence borne from stopping some of the Big Ten's weaker rushing attacks. Michigan's last three opponents - Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio State - are each ranked in the top five in the Big Ten in rushing. The other teams in the top five are Indiana and Northwestern, two teams that Michigan doesn't face this year. So in effect, the rush defense that everyone was ready to crown king has not yet faced its toughest competition. Minnesota ran for more than 300 yards against Michigan State, which had no problem stopping Michigan's running game. Wisconsin's Anthony Davis is the top back in the Big Ten. And Ohio State's Jonathan Wells is running for more than 100 yards per game. Bowman was certainly confused by Michigan's defensive statistics against the Shawn Lazarus congratulates Shantee Orr after one of his two sacks last week. PROCF S, Marquise Walker just couldn't come up with the big catches in the second half against Michigan State. for-23 and 4-for-10 - to complete 12 of 17 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. Edge: Michigan MINNESOTA RUSH OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN RUSH DEFENSE: Minnesota returned nine starters from what was one of the best offenses in the Big Ten last season, and it shows. The Golden Gophers are averaging 240 yards per game on the ground this year. Through eight games, tail- back Tellis Redmon has rushed for 891 yards and six touchdowns and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Until last weekend, Michigan's run defense looked dominant. Then, the Spartans' T.J. Duckett took the Wolverines' defense behind the woodshed, rumbling for 211 yards and a touchdown. If there's any upside to the situa- tion, it is that Redmon is not a bat- tering ram-type back like Duckett. At any rate, this should be a great matchup of strength vs. strength, and it is too close to call. Edge: Even up an average of 242 yards a game. Minnesota's Ron Johnson was generally regarded as the best receiv- er in the Big Ten entering the season, but he has been something of a dis- appointment. Johnson's numbers (41 catches, 567 yards, five touchdowns) aren't bad, but they also aren't what you would expect from a guy who was a preseason All-American. Still, the thought of Johnson - a Detroit native who has been pointing to this game all season - being defended by a Michigan cornerback has to make fans shudder. Edge: Minnesota Spartans which showed a Michigan team that sacked Michigan State quarterback Jeff Smoker 12 times, but gave up more than 200 yards on the ground. "If you took all the pass plays of the game," he said, "you'd probably say that we had our best performance as a defensive line and then you look at the running game and you'd prob- ably say we had one of our worst perfor- mances." Michigan still leads the nation in rush defense. The 68.8 yards it gives up per game is 53.5 fewer than its closest competition, Purdue. Only once since 1936 has Michigan put up a season average lower than this year's. In 1970, Michigan gave up just 789 rushing yards, a total of 65.8 per game. In that same period, there have only been six seasons when the Wolverines have finished a season allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per contest. In contrast, the Wolverines gave up 147.1 rushing yards a game last year. The Wolverines know all about the challenges that they will face in the next three games, start- ing this weekend against the Gophers. Tellis Redmon and Marion Farmer have been running all over opponents this season. About a week and a half ago, that would have been great news for the Wolverines' greedy defense. But now, it draws concern. "Just watching on film, they ran for 300-some yards against Michigan State and they played with Ohio State," center Kurt Anderson said. "They are like a lot of teams that have an out- standing ability to run in the sense they are going to make you put eight or nine guys on the line, and then they throw the ball to (wide receiver Ron) Johnson on the outside. It's not complicated, but it's effective," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said. It's also very possible that Michigan looked vulnerable against an outstanding running back, and spent the last week shoring up its holes. Duckett's performance could be the exception - not a late-developing rule. "They just found some things that worked against us and for the whole year we've been a great team against the run, and to give up that many yards is really tough," Bowman said. "We tried to make some adjustments, but they didn't work. "We're going to be thinking a lot about the things that we can change this week because Minnesota has a similar offense, runs a lot of the same type of plays and has a tremendous running back and a tremen- dous offensive4 line." INTANGIBLES: Michigan has won 15, straight games in this series, and 29 of the last 31. As if that's not enough, Minnesota has yet to win a road game this year, and you can bet that Michigan coach Lloyd Carr will have his team foaming at the mouth following last week's loss. Edge: Michigan MINN ESO MICHIGA This week, Daily Foo 4oodstein took Mich PlayStation 2 (coacd bye week, and a drir For this week's matc Wolverines and coac Golden Gophers. Play of the game - first possession of ov when QB No. 7 hit W pass on a post route Michigan's CB No. 2 Most unrealistic play left in the first half, 6-yard line. Michigan Gophers had four diff endzone. Somehow, Player of the game - 10 balls for 309 yard shaking his head at Michigan key stats Passing: QB No. 16 1 rushing TD Rushing: RB No. 23 Receiving: WR No. 4 No. 84 - 3 receptio Defense: FS No. 26, tackles (1 for loss), ception Minnesota key stats Passing: QB No. 7 - Rushing: RB No. 32 Receiving: W R No.: WR No. 80 - 5 recf Defense: CB No. 38 35, 3 tackles (1 for PRESS CO Michigan head coach (Long, pissed-off look I deserved better. The Sports will hear from Well, I guess they get where that is? They'r The 0-line coach's kid Angelique, I always to I though QB No. 16 w football team we just I like to give credit.A there (assuming he d Minnesota head coac Wow, I'd heard that N this is ridiculous. I pr receiving against tho Brown Jug". I though~ I'd like to also send ment atOhio State. A coach there someday Goddamn, now I have been to Minnesota? i it out to be. But, the Two more wins, and' Nothing quite like ge holiday season. On th sweet. SPECIAL TEAMS: Minnesota kicker Dan Nystrom struggled at times ear- lier in the season, but he is still a big weapon for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota also has a strong punter in Preston Gruening, and Redmon has been decent on punt and kickoff returns. Until his final punt against Michigan State, senior Hayden Epstein had done a good job all sea- son as both the kicker and punter. Epstein's 57-yard field goal against the Spartans broke his own school record, and he is averaging over 40 PREDICTION: This is a must-win game for both teams - Minnesota needs to win out to become bowl- eligible, while Michigan needs to win out to ensure a Big Ten title and a BCS bid. After getting embarrassed at Toledo to start the season, the Golden Gophers have hung tough in two Big Ten road games, falling 23- 17 to Northwestern and 25-14 to Illinois. In addition, Glen Mason has done a good job rebuilding what was once a moribund Minnesota program, so don't expect the Golden Gophers to get blown out tomorrow. . But, this game means too much to Michigan. This should be a relative- ly close game, but Michigan's supe- rior talent - coupled with a height- ened sense of urgency - will keep the "Little Brown Jug" in Ann Arbor for the 16th straight year. BCS Projections The Michigan Daily projects the four BCS bowls: TOMOU %-W;: Jan. 1, 2002 Jan. 1, 2002 Jan. 2, 2002 Tempe, Ariz. New Orleans, La. Miami, Fla. Nebraska vs. Oregon Michigan vs. Texas Florida State vs. Tennessee Other possible candidates: Other possible candidates: Other possible candidates: Briham Young, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Miami Fl , Georia Tech O , TexWashington , (Fla.), Nebraska, Illinois,(Maland, Michigan, Washington State Oklahoma, Tennessee Miami (Fla), Tennessee MINNESOTA PASS OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN PASS DEFENSE: Entering the season, everyone knew that Michigan's secondary was going to be suspect. Sure enough, the Wolverines currently have the worst pass defense in the Big Ten, giving yards per punt. On the downside, return game is mediocre the Wolverines' coverage up-and-down against State. Michigan's at best, and teams were Michigan Jan. 4, 2002 Los Angeles, Calif. Florida vs. Miami (Fla.) Other possible candidates: Nebraska Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Wahngton - DANNY MOLOSHOK/Daily Todd Howard will have his hands full trying to defend Minnesota's Ron Johnson. Edge: Minnesota Michigan 24, Minnesota 14