10 Th Mcign-a~ FRIDAY Focus 0 6 S MICHIGAN HAS REMAINED IN THE SPOTLIGHT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN FROM BEFORE ITS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN FEBRUARY THROUGH THE FINAL DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN. AND WHEN THE FINAL VOTES ARE TALLIED, IT'S LIKELY THAT MICHIGAN WILL BE ONE STATE IN THE WINNER'S COLUMN. Ah eighth lrgest sate in the union and one that, so neir AL Gor nor George W Bush has been able to Lkup. Igang i mund zero on Lilection Day. in r f the las five presidential elections, Michigan ha \oed vihin a prcentge point of the national aver- ' Insde MiBnigan Polities ditor Bil lBallenger said. 'W\'re like a microcosm oi what happened at the national Last month, both presidential candidates visited the state at least once a w eek to woo Michigan's large population of undecided v oters who have the potential to swing the state and possib l the nation in either candidate's favor. Michigan, which in 1992 and 1996 supported Bill Clin- ton, has been undecided from the start of the 2000 cam- paign. With three of the four largest states and several Mid- western states already locked up by one candidate or the other, Michigan is still up for grabs. "The others have at some other time been thought to be in one column to the other," Ballenger said. Although California, New York, Texas and Florida have the most electoral votes, the Midwestern states - especial- ly Michigan -- are likely to be the deciding factor. California and New York are considered to be in the Gore camp, while Texas is expected to support its gover- nor. Florida, the fourth-largest state, remains uncommitted despite the fact that Bush's brother Jeb is governor. But in this continuously wavering election, winning Michigan may not be enough to determine who takes the White House. While some consider Michigan to be the state that will DIVERSITY "We've always had a closely divided state politically," Ballenger said. Michigan's demographics "tends to be more equally balanced between the two parties," lie said. E d Saripolus, a spokesman for the Lansing polling firm lPIC/MRA, said lie expects about 1.6 million Republi- cans, 1.7 million Democ- rats and 730,000 M ichi independent voters to cast baIlots across tie state 1 uesda. Secretary orf state records show 6.8 million registered voters in Michi- gan. Michian Democratic Party spokesman Dennis. , Denno said the state has a larger percentage of unde- cided vot ers than most other states. "We're not Republican or we're not Democrat - we are a swing state. And in southeastern Michipan Iparti ularly with Oakland ~ ounty Macomb County re an d wetern Waynen w here the heavy popula- tion is,. th is is the swing" Mier sad. Uiersity political sci- ence Pro f. Chris Achen said Michigan traditionally has beeni demographically proportional to the rest of the counitrv. The state's black population is proportional to the nation's and also ha diverse communities, including one big urban area in Detroit ind nmany smaller rural areas. In terms of reli- gious representtion, Michigan is also well-balanced - especially amone ev angelical and mainline Protestants- and has a sizeable Catholic and Jewish population. But \cheii noted that the state is not proportionally "perfect' and lacks a significant hispanic population. The state is economically diverse and has organized labor groups, big and small business, Achen said. THE COLLEGE icihigan is not only demographically relevant to the presidential campaigns but electorally the state holds 18 electoral w. otes --the eighth largest in the country. "It is very dilicult, if not impossible, for a presidential candidate to wimi nationally and lose Michigan," Denno said. an Voters decide the election, its importance cannot be isolated from results in other states. If Gore wins Michi- gan but loses Illinois, the loss will balance out the gain in terms of electoral votes, Ballenger said. Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania all carry more electoral votes than Michigan. But Ohio is said to be pro- Bush and Illinois appears to favor Gore, so Michigan's vote will strengthen one candidate's electoral base in the Midwest. The most recent EPIC/MRA tracking poll gives Gore a two- to three-point lead over Bush in Michi- gan, Sarpolus said. "We don't look at it as our enemy," Miller said, "and I think speaking to that, its going to resonate with the voters of Michigan But Gore campaign spokeswoman Kim Rubey said the Bush campaign has used "old quotes taken out of context." Gore, a longtime supporter of the envi- ronment, has been under attack by the Bush campaign about statements made in his book "Earth in the Balance," in which he discussed working with the auto industry to develop new types of engines and more efficient automobiles. Nader also wants to attract labor - a group he said is com- mitted to work hard for, no matter who gets their votes. NC Nader emphasizes the George Bush speaks about his energy policy at a late importance of repeal- September rally in Saginaw. ing the 1947 Taft- Hartley act that limits the collective bargaining ability of labor unions. Since neither campaign can be "sure as to what the undecided voters are going to do," Ballenger said, both campaigns should be focused on at least getting party members out to vote. But the candidates have spent the last couple of months pursuing undecided voters. 1 And although Bush is expected to win only no more than two of the four biggest states, he has strong support in the South, Cen- tral and Rocky Mountain states. "If we can win it here, we can win it anywhere" Democ- ratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman said at a fundraiser in Southfield last month. THE MOTOR STATE Candidates campaigning in Michigan have specifically aimed their messages at organized labor in an attempt to sway the support of industry workers. Gore's endorsement from unions like the United Auto Workers hasn't stopped Bush or Green Party candidate Ralph Nader from trying to court industry workers. Michigan GOP spokesman Sage Eastman said the Bush campaign is working to attract voters who have traditional- ly not voted for the Republican Party. Bush made a campaign stop at the Pontiac General Motors plant last month to assert his support for new petroleum policies as well as the internal combustion engine, which Bush has used to promote a pro-labor stance. During Bush's General Motors visit, Michigan Secretary of State Candice Miller said the Texas governor "spoke to Michigan about the internal combustion engine that Al Gore thinks is our enemy. But we kind of like cars in Michigan, we don't think cars are the enemy. That's how we feed our fam- ilies here. THE HEAT IS ON Michigan Gov. John Engler has served as Bush's state campaign chair from the start and has mobilized top state officials like Miller to campaign for Bush. Even so, Bush wasn't able to garner enough support during the state's Republican primary in February to defeat then-rival John McCain. Now that Republicans have united behind the Texas gov- ernor, he has spent most of his time campaigning in the southeastern part of the state. "Half the vote is in Southeast Michigan - in the south- east sector - and the line runs from Port Huron to Ann Arbor. That's the primary area," Engler said. Gore is competing with Bush for metropolitan Detroit voters. In the last month, the vice president has cam- paigned heavily in Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties as well as Flint and Saginaw. "We're focusing on the Detroit area, particularly the Detroit suburbs," Rubey said. Ballenger said there are advantages to have the state's governor heading up the campaign of a presidential candi- date. "I think it is beneficial, as long as he isn't arrogant and obnoxious as he was at the beginning of the year." Despite the historically conservative leanings of the western side of the state, Gore managed to draw large crowds to rallies in Grand Rapids and Muskegon. "We've also been surprised as to how well we're doing in western Michigan," Rubey said of an area that is tradi- tionally considered to be Republican. Although Gore does not have the Michigan governor on his side to help gather support, the vice president has cam- paigned with prominent state Democrats including Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer, Attorney General Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Carl Levin and Senate hopeful Debbie Stabenow. 'U' prof.'s Website trades Nader votes Al Gore's going to win New York. Ralph Nader can't win -period. Enter nadergore.org, a Website designed to match Gore supporters in New York with Nader fans in Michigan without either having to "throw their vote away." Run by University history and Ameri- can culture Prof. Matthew Countryman and Ann Arbor attorney Nimish Ganatra, nadergore.org creates a system in which a New Yorker would cast a ballot for Nader while someone in Michigan would in turn vote for Gore. Countryman said that because the vice president has such a strong lead in New York, he can afford to lose votes there that he cannot afford to lose in Michigan. "In New York their votes won't make much of a difference," Countryman said. This system has two goals, Country- man said - to prevent Bush from win- ning the presidency and ensure that Nader gets the 5 percent of the vote nec- essary to receive federal election funds in 2004. Two other sites, www voteswap2000.com and wwwnadertrader:org, allow voters in Michigan Secretary of State spokes- woman Julie Pierce said. "Michigan election law does prohibit buying or sell- ing votes." U.S. Justice Department officials said this particular provision of Michigan election law is in accordance with federal election law as well. Jake Lewis, a spokesman for the Nader campaign, said the Green Party does not endorse the use of voter trading Websites. "Ralph considers this just a frivolous activity," Lewis said. "He's opposed to III. .u r n.: