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The Bowl Championship Series attempts to
clarify the national championship picture


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To Lloyd and the fans: Give Brady afab

By Sharat Raju
So, you want to figure out the Bowl
Championship Series equation, do you?
First you'll n'eed to finish that doctorate in rocket
science.
Second, select a team in mid-season who has
hopes of going to the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4 for the
national title game.
Third, you'll need a bunch of rankings of said
team - not just ones from the Associated Press and
the USA Today/ESPN poll. The average of those two

are taken and used as the first of the four-component
BCS equation. Besides, using merely those two
would be just the same old thing.
You'll also need polls from The Seattle Times and
The New York Times.
Not enough? Just throw in Jeff Sagarin's poll -
he's the mathematician whose formula and results
have appeared in USA TODAY since 1985.
Those three polls are taken and averaged together
for the second component, the "computer average."
Next, you'll need a computer or a reliable calcula-
tor. Schedule strength is calculated by compiling the

cumulative win-loss records of opponents and of
opponents' opponents. They are weighted in this
manner: Opponents' records count for two-thirds
and opponents' opponents' records count one-third.
Those two, added together, yield the third compo-
nent of the equation, called the "quartile rank."
Now, take the team's losses, which make up the
fourth component.
At long last, you have the four components of the
BCS equation. Take those four numbers, add them
all together and - presto! - you've got a No. I
and a No. 2 team. Those two teams (the two with the

lowest final BCS numbers) pack their bags and head
to Tempe, Ariz., for the national title game.
But in 2000, the title game will be at the Sugar
Bowl. Then it's at the Orange Bowl in 2001, then the
Rose Bowl in 2002.
Here's a catch: If you're a Big Ten or Pac-10 team
that finishes No. 1 or No. 2, you vacate your usual
spot in the Rose Bowl. That spot is filled from a pool
of at-large teams -- not necessarily one from the Big
Ten or the Pac-10.
What? You still don't get it? Fine. Check out the
diagram below.

don't know who's been better in
practice. Don't know who's a better
leader. Honestly couldn't say who's
done a better job against the blitz,
who's more adept at reading the
defense, who's got a better handle on
the offense. I don't pretend to know.
I'm inclined to believe, though, that
Tom Brady's the best choice at quarter-
back, since that's who Lloyd Carr
picked. After all, Carr picked Brian
Griese last
year. In fact,
Carr seemed to
do everything L


IF THE BCS WAS IN PLACE LAST YEAR AND THE- REGULAR SEASON JUST ENDED ...

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right last year.
All factors
considered, it
makes sense
that Brady,
more than any-
one else, gives
Michigan its
best chance to
win.

Michigan (11-0) BCS: 4.17
1. Polls average: 1
2. Computer average: 2.33
3. Quartile rank: .84
4. Losses: 0

Nebraska (12-0) BCS: 5.31
1. Polls average: 2
2. Computer average: 1.75
3. Quartile rank: 1.56
4. Losses: 0

oW
Fat-

JIM
ROSE
Rose
Beef

Since Michigan Is battling Nebraska for the national title, the Rose Bowl gives an
invitation to an at-large team. That team plays Washington State.

Think about it. What possible good
can come from a statement like that?
It's not just that it sounds contradictory
(though it does). But it creates prob-
lems in two respects.
First of all, it's unfair to Brady.
Here's a guy who, after three long
years of waiting, has finally worked
his way to the top of the charts. Even
this fall, he's had to endure a media
blitz of titanic proportions that framed
Henson as the man who would steal
his spot. But he kept his mouth shut,
went to work and won the job.
And how was he rewarded? By his
coach's announcement that, yes, in
fact, Brady gets the job ... but he's
really not as talented as Henson.
Hardly a ringing endorsement.
Secondly - and this is more impor-
tant Carr's statement does nothing
to ease the pressure that Henson
already faces. In fact, all it does is
heap even more expectations atop the
already burdened shoulders of an 18-
year-old freshman who can never -
never, I don't care how great he is --
live up to the impossibly unfair billing
he's receiving. Anybody remember the
last quarterback to come out of high
school with this kind of reception?
Was it iRon Powlus?
Not that Henson doesn't deserve to
be complimented. I know from what I
saw in high school that he's an incredi-
ble talent. He deserves to be praised,
and one day, he might be great at the
collegiate level. I happen to think he
will be. Heck, he might be great right
now. But my point is this: Why would
Carr make a delicate situation worse
by calling him more talented than the

guy he picked to be the starter?
It puts Henson in an uncomfortable
position, and it puts Brady in a tough
spot, too -- to say nothing about the
fact that it could hurt Brady's position
as the leader of the team. How will the
players respond when Brady makes a
mistake, especially when they know
their coach thinks the guy standing on
the sideline might even be better?
Brady played very well against Notre
Dame on Saturday, despite the loss.
Henson looked good in his short stint,
too, but keep in mind that hetwas facing
a prevent defense in a game that had
long since been decided. Once again,
we're left to wonder what Carr was try-
ing to accomplish by throwing the
freshman into the game at that point.
Carr, in his defense. did say that he
has "total confidence" in Brady. So
maybe he's just trying to motivate
Brady by reminding him that Henson
isn't far behind. But I don't buy into
that line of thinking, either. Brady
already knows what his competition can
do. All in all, it just doesn't make sense.
Nevertheless, Brady, at least until we
hear or see otherwise, is the man in the
spotlight for now. This is his chance.
Henson will get his chance, eventually.
But at least for now, we should be
patient - just as Brady has.
So do Brady a favor this weekend.
(live him some support. Recognize
that this is his team - and his time.
le won't be perfect. He won't be
Brian Griese. But Brady wouldn't have
won the job if he wasn't pretty darn
good himself.
-Jim Rose can be reached at
jwrose(aumich. edu

Hours:
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6:45 am-5:00 pm F
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9:00am - 3:00 pm S
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Third-place gano
Orange
Bowl
vs.

But I also think Lloyd Carr mishan-
dled this situation.
In one breath, he said, "Tom Brady
has earned the starting quarterback
position at Michigan." But seconds
later, with the first comment barely out
of his mouth, he said this about Drew
I ei. :., Brady's freshman competitor.
-Without question, he's the most talent-
ed quarterback that I've been around."
Now why would he go and say
something like that?
Even if it's true, even if Henson's
already shown talent that Brady can
never match, it's silly to say so imme-
diately after pronouncing Brady the
guy to lead the team.

Tennessee (11-1) BCS: 7.00
1. Polls average: 3
2. Computer average: 2.92
3. Quartile rank: .08
4. Losses: I

Florida State (10-1) BCS: 9 01
1. Polls average: 4
2. Computer average: 2.92
3. Quartile rank: .68
4. Losses: I

After three years spent mostly on the side
enters the season as Michigan's starting c
job, he'll have to hold off some stiff compe
from his fellow quarterbacks as well.


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WANNA SCORE
catch Michigan Sports daily
at
http://www.pub.umich.edu/daily
IT'S A
SURtE T HING.

We don't know
what to make of
Lloyd Carr's com-
ments, but the other
players involved in
the quarterback
saga have been
pretty clear in
their statements.

"You gotta
be happy
for Drew.
He's a very
level-headed
kid, and a
great talent."

"I understand
that Tom is
the No. 1 guy
coming into
the season.
I'm still a
freshman.

Brady

Henson



The 1998 schedule


Date
Sept. 5
Sept. 12
Sept. 19
Sept. 26
Oct. 3
Oct. 17
Oct. 24
Oct. 31
Nov. 7
Nov. 14
Nov. 21
Nov. 28

Team
Notre Dame (36-20, ND)
Syracuse
Eastern Michigan
Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Indiana
Minnesota
Penn State
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Hawaii

Site
Notre Dame S
Michigan Stad
Michigan Stad
Michigan Stad
Kinnick Stadiu
Ryan Field, Ev
Michigan Stad
Metrodome, I\
Michigan Stad
Michigan Stad
Ohio Stadium,
Aloha Stadiun

MARGARET MYERS/Daily
Drew Henson Joins the Wolverines with super credentials,
and Lloyd Carr has already called him "the most talented
quarterback that I've been around." But how will the fresh-
man respond when he's thrown into a tight game?

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