OPINION Page 4 Saturday, November 17, 1984 The Michigan Daily 4 A broad By Dave Kopel Third and final in a series looking at the 1988 presidential race The 1988 Republican presidential race may be a repeat of the 1984 Democratic one - the boring establishment can- didate against the young insurgent. The boring establishment candidate is of course George Bush. Bush, the solid favorite of the investment banking and polo shirt wing of the Republican party, like Mondale, has built a solid resume: vice-president, CIA director, am- bassador to China, and congressman. (Resume-building was no doubt one of the skills he picked up at Andover and Yale.) Despite solid support from the par- ty's eastern establishment, Bush is not guaranteed the nomination. The New Right and Christian Right factions of the party which took control of the Dallas Convention despise Bush. To them he is part of the weak, com- promising, secular humanist wing of the party that kept the Republicans a minority. Bush knows this and is doing his best to placate them. Although in 1980 he favored federal funding forr abortions in case of rape or incest, today he favors a constitutional amen- dment to criminalize all abortions. Bush's effort to mollify the extremists won't do any good. They are solidly op- posed to him and will never accept him. All he has done is diminish the respect1 that independents and moderates usedI to have for him." BY REPUBLICAN rules, if a state votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the general election, the state earns bonus delegates to the next1 Republican convention. Usually the system accentuates the alreadyI dominant position of the party's western and southern conservative wings. But thanks to the Reagan lan- dslide, eastern states will have a larger relative share of delegates in 1988. In 1976, Gerald Ford won the Republican nomination by a slim margin, thanks to range of DuPont IV is the one moderate who might 'be able to challenge George Bush. Du Pont is preppier, richer, and far more charismatic; he might be the big surprise of 1988. He won all his. Delaware elections by landslides, despite some resentment about his aristocratic heritage. A supply-side Governor with a good record of economic success, Du Pont has remained reasonably moderate on social issues; although he favors school prayer and he opposes a constitutional amendment banning abortions in all circumstances. The power in the Republican Party has shifted from the center to the far right. The most likely beneficiary of the shift, the most likely Republican nominee, and the Republican with the best chance to win the 1988 general election is Buffalo Congressman Jack Kemp. The Kemp-Roth tax package was the basis of the Reaganomics tax cuts in 1981. And the Kemp-Kasten flat ised by a large tax bill may be the centerprice of the lican Party for second round of Reaganomics. If the economy is booming in 1988, Jack WS. Kemp will be able to claim much of the delegates that credit. 1972 nationwide Even more than Ronald Reagan, like Ford,twill be Jack Kemp has proved himself able to expand beyond traditonally Republican .nce the race constituencies. Although he is the gan versus Bush prophet of trickle-down, supply-side n most of the economics, he wins votes from all with about 60 classes of people. Solid support from ifortunately, the steel-workers in his Buffalo district has s rthe national made him virtually unbeatable. IN ADDITION, Kemp is an outstan- ,ate conservativeding public speaker. The charismatic Baker and Bob former quarterback of the Buffalo Bills ance at all. Both could have earned a living in the and responsible nineteenth century as a snake-oil ashioning con- salesman - or as a revival preacher. wring President Kemp is a fundamentalist about ec- budget deficit. onomics; one of his highest priorities as 1 win them is the President would be putting the nation ;ton insiders and back on the gold standard. Another goal lenn proved, you would be creating "Urban Enterprise s nomination by Zones" in depressed inner cities - boring centrist. zones where business would receive Governor Pierre special tax breaks and exemptions republican choices from regulation. Although fundamentalist economics are Kemp's main interest, he has kept his voting record pure on fundamen- talist social issues. He has been a reliable voter for school prayer, against abortion under any conditions, and against the ERA. His conservative social postions might alienate the young independents who would like his tax-cutting enthusiasm. But perhaps Kemp, like President Reagan, would be able -to convince the yuppies that he really disdains the social issues, and simultaneously convince the religious ultra-fundamentalists that he cares deeply about them. ONE CANDIDATE who won't have any trouble proving that he cares deeply about social issues is North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms. George Bush is despi portion of the Repub] his past moderate vie the extra eastern resulted from Nixon's sweep. Perhaps Bush,] able to squeak through. But I doubt it. C narrowed down to Rea in 1980, Reagan wo remaining primaries percent of the vote. Ui far right now runs Republican Party. The other two moder candidates, Howard I Dole have almost no ch have been effective senators, adept at f promises and pressu Reagan to reduce the But all their efforts wil admiration of Washing columnists. As John G don't win your party'. being a nice guy and a I FORMER Delaware Beginning his third term in the Senate, Helms is emerging as one of America's most powerful senators. Having won re- election to the Senate with one of the dirtiest smear campaigns in memory, Helms is gearing up for a run at the presidency. His National Congressional Club direct-mail fundraising organization is the best in the nation. And he will also have financial backing from far-right millionaires like Bunker Hunt. His tough stands on abortion and school prayer will give him a solid base in the South among Jerry Falwell con- servatives. Maybe Helms is too much of a radical extremist to be elected President. But people used to say that about Ronald Reagan. Another Republican hopeful who will have all the money he needs is New York millionaire Lewis Lehrman. In 1982, Lehrman lost a close New York gubenatorial race to Mario Cuomo. Cuomo has announced that if he decides to run for President (which he already has privately decided to do), he will not seek re-election as Governor in 1986. That would leave the door way open for Lehrman to be elected governor in 1986. Although he would still be a long-shot for the presidency in 1988, he might be a good ticket-balancer -for Helms if he wins the nomination. But Lehrman would more likely be crowded aside by any one of several Republican women who could be vice- president. United Nations Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick, a nominal Democrat, is frequently mentioned as a possibility. A champion of a hard-line foreign policy (she supported Argen- tina during the Falklands war), she would balance a candidate like Kemp who focuses mainly on domestic issues. But although Margaret Thatcher has proven that a woman doesn't need to be traditionally feminine to win national office, Kirkpatrick is simply too harsh, ugly, and abrasive to do well on a national ticket. A better candidate is Transporation Secretary Elizabeth Dole. Late-night television watchers have already seen Jack Kemp might prove to be the balance that can best appeal beyond traditional Republican constituen- cies. her explaining the importance of wearing seat-belts. The big surprise, however, could be Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who tried to maneuver herself into the vice- presidency in 1983 until it became clear that Reagan would pick Bush again. If a second term of Reaganomic leads to the recession many economis expect, and if the Republicans nominate George Bush, almost any Democrat could re-capture the White House. But if the economy performs as well as President Reagan seems to ex- pect, and if the Republicans nominate an inspiring leader like Jack Kemp, the Republicans may finally become America's majority party. Kopel is a third year law student. Jesse Helms has support from ex- tremist conservatives but is probably too far right to be elected. 1~ LETTERS TO THE DAILY E eb s tdens an tyl ig Edited and managed by students at The University of Michigan No apologies for interfering with CIA Vol. XCV, No. 63 420 Maynard St. Ann Arbor, MI 48109 Editorials represent a majority opinion of the Daily's Editorial Board Politics of the game OMPETITION isn't necessarily a positive thing. Football games which pit Ohio State University against the University of Michigan usually breed a healthy rivalry, though on oc- casion a fistfight erupts when some obnoxious fans let the game's ex- citement get the best of them. This year that potential for violence has been channeled in an extremely con- structive fashion. University and Ohio State students have been trying to draw each other's blood - in the an- nual Red Cross blood drive. But such aggressive competition on the inter- national scene, particularly between the superpowers, more often than not only serves destructive purposes. The hysterical football fan is not as destructive as the national leader who initiates destructive rivalries in a display of fanatical nationalism, but the similarities in language can't help but be noted. One University student who was ob- viously caught up in the drive to draw more blood than Ohio State students and. thus, to win that battle, if not the football game, said: 'Anything to kick tOSU's butt is a good thing to do." This comment no doubt was made with the best of intentions. However, ponder the hazards of it being translated into an international contest. It would come out sounding something like this: "Anything to kick Russia's butt is a good thing to do." The implications of such a statement ficials in this country. For example, Vice President George Bush after his debate with Rep. Geraldine Ferraro said, "We tried to kick some ass." That kind of language, so similar to the football fans rhetoric, is extremely unhelpful in a diplomatic situation and certainly wouldn't improve our relations with the Soviet Union. This metaphor should not be taken too far. Ohio State does not speak for the Kremlin. Nor is the University a mouthpiece for Washington. Yet, the language of the battlefield is often un- settlingly similar 'to that used on the football field and in diplomacy. In fact, Former President and Michigan alum Gerald Ford made several ball game references Wednesday when discussing U.S.-Soviet relations and arms control strategies during a sym- posium at the University. What does the East-West conflict have to do with the Michigan-Ohio State confrontation? The mentality exhibited by a president steeped in patriotic fervor who refuses to negotiate an arms control agreement is remarkably similar to that of the fanatic football fan. Both have the potential to use their strong emotions to cause harm to others. The football fan could potentially fight with fans of the opposing team. The president could refuse to take the necessary steps toward peace for fear that it would make the nation appear less superior or even inferior in the world's eyes. To the Daily: We have no apologies to offer for interfering with the CIA's recruitment process. The CIA is the largest terrorist organization in the world. We are proud of any actions we have taken which have hampered their operations. Since its creation in 1945, the CIA has left a trail of bloody repression that extends to every corner of the world. It has been a tireless enemy of freedom and democracy. Its tools are murder, torture, and terror. In Iran in 1953 it installed the Shah through a military coup that overturned a popular nationalist government. During his 25 year rule the Shah imprisoned, tortured, or executed tens of thousands of Iranians. In Guatemala in 1954, the CIA againtoverthrew a popular dictatorship. This dic- tatorship continues to wage war against its citizens, killing tens of thousands in the last few years alone. In Chile in 1973, the CIA helped to overturn a democratically elected gover- nment, replacing it with a regime that was killing people so fast, it couldn't figure out how to dispose of the bodies. There is absolutely no crime too hideous for the CIA to carry through. In the aftermath of World War II, the CIA came into the posession of Nazi torture manuals. Since then is has used these manuals to train the police forces of Iran and a number of Latin American countries in the most modern interrogation techniques. The CIA-Nazi link goes further in that it helped a number of Nazi war criminals evade prosecution. Today the CIA is involved in waging a war of torture and terror against the people of Nicaragua. It has trained a mer- cenary army to disrupt the economy and terrorize the population. IN particular these attacks have been aimed at preventing the government from providing services such as health care to the rural population, and in this way reducing popular sup- port for the government. Toward allow them to carry out their recruitment unhampered at a time when Nicaragua may be in- vaded at any moment would be unconscionable. This would be lending them a degree of legitimacy which could not possibly be less deserved. Whatever may be considered the purposes and goals of a univer- sity, the training of recruits for terrorist organizations isnot among them. This is not an issue of free speech. Had they wished to discuss their crimes, we would not have attempted to stop them. It was only the recruitment process that we sought to disrupt. We realize that the represen- tative who came here probably has never been, nor will ever be, directly involved in the CIA's crimes. Many CIA employees never do anything more than sift through documents. Ourgaction was not directed at this particular individual however, but at the agency itself. We will attempt to disrupt the CIA in any way we can, as we would attempt to disrupt the ef- forts of a Nazi concentration camp to recruit an accountant from the University. As far as those individuals who were con- templating working for the CIA, it is unfortunate that they cannot find employment ยข where their skills may benefit humanity. Maybe this would not seem like such a difficult task, it the career planning office made it one of its goals, rather than providing assistance to any gang of criminals that has managed to incorporate itself. -Dean Baker November 14 L UDES provides SANS with relief To the Daily: With all the letters, articles, and comments in recent days concerning the use of suicide pills in the event of nuclear war, even we here in the Law School heard of the controversy. Some of us, myself included, have come up with an alternative solution that we hope will satisfy both those for and against having the Univer- sity stockpile cyanide. We must awaken ourselves to the apparent fact that reality will be perceptibly altered if and when everyone gets bombed and the whole world is wasted. Therefore, I propose that we hold a University-wide referen- dum asking the University to stockpile massive quantities of methaquaalude. The use of "quaaludes" after an atomic war is a fair and realistic com- promise with those who would rather see us stock cyanide, especially in view of the fact that most bars will probably be closed immediately following the catastrophe. Furthermore, the use of quaaludes after a nuclear war would be particularly ap- propriate as a symbol of our commitment to "carry on" after a devastating war with as much involvement in and concern with BLOOM COUNTY the world around us as is generally manifested today. A few of us here have gotten together and formed a small group, Let's Use Drugs to Escape Suicide (LUDES). We meet as of- ten as possible to investigate the various possibilities. The problem facing the world today is indeed serious, and we hope all students take time out to educate themselves about it. Most of us, however, seem to have gotten used to having this monkey on our back. Here in our adorably serene University, we forget that there actually is a world outside. It's so easy to take our dream for i reality; perhaps we had all better wake up before that dream turns into a nightmare, and the few survivors quaff a, few last quaaludes, remnants of a bygone yesterday. - Larry Pollack November 15 Free speech double standard To the Daily: You've got a double standard. Your very existence depends on freedom of speech, and yet you would deny that freedom to others. Sometimes it's scientists; this time it's CIA recruiters. Three points in response to the editorial "Good riddance" (Daily, Nov.16). 1. Freedom of speech means freedom to say what you want. That means the CIA gets to recruit, it need not answer protesters' questions. 2. The claim that the CIA is against free speech is absolutely irrelevant. We're for free speech, so the CIA gets to speak. 3. Finally, you claim that students may be misinformed about CIA activities. The solution is more information, not less. Students also have a right to hear what the CIA has to say. Wise up, guys. Next time, the protesters could close down a group you like. -Ruth Milkman November 16 Unsigned editorials ap- pearing on the left side of this page represent a majority opinion of the Daily 's Editorial Board. by Berke Breathed 977,0 - - F 711/516 "&GY~FlOXOC 1' f' :' I1 I/I\ l/K. , i AW