4 OPINION Page 4 Friday, November 16, 1984 The Michigan Dily A field of stro democratic outs By Dave Kopel Second in a series looking at the 1988 presidential race Yesterday's article looked at the Democratic Presidential possibilities for 1988, and examined four candidates preferred by inside party pros: Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy, Geraldine Ferraro, and Dale Bumpers. Today we'll look at some of the party in- surgents. Jesse Jackson will remain the wild card of the Democratic party. He cer- tainly won't win the nomination, but if he runs, he might do even better than he did last time around. In the 1984 elec- tion, Jackson picked up votes from Blacks who preferred Mondale (and some younger ones who preferred Hart) but voted for Jackson out of racial pride. Having made the racial pride point once, Black voters may not feel compelled to make it again. Just as many Catholics voted for John Kennedy out of pride, but no longer pay special attention to Catholic candidates, many Blacks may move beyond racial voting next time around. JACKSON'S REAL potential for gains is among left-wing white Democrats. In 1984, Jackson was the only Democrat calling for cuts in defense spending, and the only candidate praising the Sandinistas. At least twenty percent of the Democratic electorate agrees with Jackson on these issues. In 1984, that twenty percent split between Mondale and Hart. But in 1988, Jackson might be able to pick them up if he convincingly repudiates anti-Semitism and Louis Farrakhan (since much of the Democrat's left wing is Jewish). In 1988, Jackson may have more money; and when he has enough for television advertising, as he did in the California primary, he does well with young white leftists. If Jackson plays his cards right, he could succeed George McGovern as the leader of the Democratic left. Gary Hart, my favorite candidate, will certainly run in 1988. Colorado in- siders predict that he will pass up re- election to the Senate in 1986 so that he Gary Hart may look good for 1988, but he won't have a monopoly on new, ideas within the Democratic Party. can get started on his second presiden- tial bid. Hart's 1988 position is both stronger and weaker than his 1984 position. One of the main reasons Hart lost in 1984 was the organizational disaster that developed in March. After his up- set in New Hampshire, he suddenly had to build organizations in states he hadn't even planned to contest. By the time of the Indiana and Ohio primaries, he had state organizations strong enough to provide the crucial margin of victory. But in Illinois and New York, Hart had to spend valuable energy trying to straighten out organizational confusion. And his national staff ad- visor Pat Caddell, who had provided the winning advice in Iowa and New Ham- pshire, decided he was the new cam- paign manager and the new pollster. As a result of all the chaos, Hart could not focus his message. Commercials ap- peared that Hart hadn't authorized, and Hart appeared (in Mondale's words) to be "unsure, unsteady, untested." Next time around Hart will have solid organizations in place, and won't wear himself down keeping his staff under control. BY THE NEXT election Americans will feel more confortable with Hart since he will have been a familiar figure for four years, instead of for four weeks. Trivialities like his age and signature change will matter less to a public that already knows who Gary Hart is. The delegate process also looks much better for Hart. Thanks to a stronger organization, Hart will receive all the delegates he's entitled to, unlike in 1984 where Hart lost dozens of Florida and Illinois delegates because of missed filing deadlines. And last summer at the Mondale-Hart peace conference, Mondale accepted revisions in the delegate-selection process. In 1988 the number of "super-delegates" (unelec- ted party officials, who over- whelmingly supported Mondale and provided him his margin of victory) will be cut in half. Finally, most all of Hart's rivals are from the Northeast; he will pick up large blocks of Western delegates with little competition. If Dale Bumbers does not run there will be no Southern candidates except for Jesse Jackson. Hart's strong pro- military record, his boosting of small business entrepreneurship, and his questioning of the continued vitality of the New Deal all put him much closer ideologically to the South than his Nor- theastern rivals. But Hart's 1988 prospects are not all rosy. The AFL-CIO leadership still despises him, despite his 80 percent pro-labor voting record. Hart can ap- peal over the heads of the leadership and win rank-and-file; he swept union households in New England, and won Ohio and Indiana by pulling in indepen- dent-minded union members. But the AFL-CIO and NEA still provide lots of money, and lots of organization, and they will both be aimed against Hart in 1988. A SERIOUS danger for Hart is that he will no longer have a monopoly on his message. In 1984, Hart was the vanguard of the new generation of leadership. By 1988, he will face com- petition from at least three other Senators for the role of leader of the young in age and in spirit. Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd supported Hart in 1984 but may aim for the Presidency himself next time. An effective member of the Senate "club," Dodd has become one of the most important young Democrats in the Senate. He has taken the lead in calling for a less militaristic foreign policy in Central America and in sup- porting Constitutional limitations on presidential foreign adventurism. Although Dodd is not a speaker of Cuomo's or Kenndy's or Jackson's calibre, he is more outgoing and relaxed than Hart. Should Dodd win some primaries, he will have to convin- cingly squash questions concerning his character-doubts that will spring up from the media's "discovery" that Dodd's father also a Connecticut Senator, left office in a scandal in- volving personal use of campaign fun- ds. Before pollster Pat Caddell signed on with the Gary Hart campaign he tried to convince Delaware Senator Joseph Biden to run and become the candidate who would move beyond the failures of the Republican and Democratic pasts. Biden declined but might run in 1988. Even more so than Hart, Biden has split from traditional liberal positions. He opposes busing and has sometimes voted in favor of anti-abortion legislation. He suggested terminating all federal entitlement programs ex- cept Social Security and Medicare, requiring all other programs to be fun- ded out of general appropriations. Biden's intensity and energy will carry him far, but they often seem to betray a disturbing fanatacism. If you have a lit- tle money to put aside, though, you might want to bet on Joe Biden winning some early primaries. FORMER RHODES Scholar and National Basketball Association. All- Star Bill Bradley is the most formidible challenger to Hart's youthful base. The Senator's "Bradley-Gephart Fair Tax" reform bill will be at the top of the Congressional agenda in the next session. The bill gives Bradley a chance to prove to the nation that the new generation of Democrats can combine innovation and efficiency with fairness Bradley-Gephart would eliminate almost all the exemptions and deducations from the personal income tax, and then lower the basic tax rate; rates would range from 14 to 28 percent. If voters are filling out their simplified Bradley-Gephart tax forms by 1988, they may reward Bradley at the polls. Bradley, like Hart, can appeal beyond traditional Democratic constituencies; his disapproval rating in New Jersey is an astonishingly low 3 percent. To win the election however, Bradley ' N *s iders will need to improve his uninspirtni speaking abilities. And to govern effecr tively, Bradley will need to broaden hio expertise, especially in foreign polity)j where his approach has been noticably shallow. One other contender for the party's nomination is West Virginia Senator (and former Governor) Jai Rockefeller IV. In fact, Rockefeller already has started his campaign. When running for election to the West Virginia Senate, Rockefeller spent a quarter of a million dollars to advertisi on Washington television stations that reach only seven percent of West Virginia voters. The intended audience, obviously, was not West Virginians bot Washington leaders. On the surface, Rockefeller looks like a strong cori- didate. He was elected Governor of West Virginia by the largest margin in history. He has the financial resources to take on better-known candidates. And to the chagrin of West Virginia Republicans, he has a "teflon" coating that kept West Virginians from blaming him for the state's miserable economy. But Rockefeller has his flaws. He runs poorly with the young. He is a boring speaker with large audiences. While he understands, intricate poliy .questions he cannot articulate I broader vision. He record as Govern6f of West Virginia is universally coi- sidered mediocre. Considering tho seven million dollars he just spent tokie elected to the Senate, his margin of victory was small. And in what sofne people consider low-class opportunisi he has changed his mind and adopted conservative positions on strip-mining, gun control, abortion, and school prayer. Whoever the Democrats nominate, they will have a stronger head of the ticket than they did this time. That :is good, because as we'll see in tomorrow's article, the post-Reagan Republican party has some fine poten- tial 'successors to the Great Com- municator. A strong contender with some fresh ideas of his own is Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd. Kopel is a third year law student.t Sinclair- Edite btn a niesto M ichig an I Edited and managed by students at The University of Michigan ta~w., ,,.,m I Vol. XCV, No. 62 420 Maynard St. Ann Arbor, MI 48109 Editorials represent a majority opinion of the Daily's Editorial Board Good riddance f FEEl CAS? TAI 44 / -r" l 14 DINO 14 R? $Lq y~oL NAvEN R EAD CUR~ NVAOC FR F1 ORMIdNG IIS . AE WEJLFARE SysTItA, I 4 3. r I I, 'I =-w 'PROTESTERS WHO broke up Wednesday's Central Intelligence Agency recruitment meeting on cam- pus did this community a favor when they held a mock trial and charged CIA representatives with such things as publishing manuals advocatng assassination and mining Nicaraguan harbors. They stimulated a valuable discussion of the CIA's strategies and invited the representatives to explain the agency's morals. The CIA recruiters, however, decided they would rather not take the time to ex- plain controversial policies and would recruit where their actions aren't so openly questioned. Some may claim that the protesters violated the CIA representatives' freedom of speech or freedom to assemble. While the protesters con- duct was indeed disruptive to the meeting, they did offer the CIA representatives a chance to defend their organization -an opportunity the representatives declined. Further- more, the CIA doesn't believe in or practice free speech. The agency does not encourage an open discussion of its actions and, in fact, the philosophy of the CIA is absolutely contrary to the values of an academic community where ideas are freely discussed and engaged in. "It is the responsibility of the Central Intelligence Agency to collect, research, and analyze the foreign intelligence information which senior officialsof our Government must have in order to make the informed decisions necessary to maintain our national security," the CIA application states. Yet, as the protesters correctly pointed out, there is proof that the agency is connected with serious violent acts, not just intelligence research. Last April it was discovered that the CIA had secretly mined Nicaragua's harbors and shipping lanes, giving Americans reason to fear a return to the CIA's destructive, covert policies practiced in Vietnam. Further evidence calling into question the agency's moral principles was given last month when it released a manual advocating political assassination. The pamphlet recom- mends the use of "selective violence" to "neutralize" leftist Nicaraguan government officials. The Reagan ad- ministration denies the manual is a violation of an Executive Order the president signed in 1981 prohibiting the U.S. government's indirect par- ticipation in assassination. But it is 1 , t l r A ~ ' - ' LETTERS TO THE DAILY Employee claims discrimination A To the Daily: I am a handicapped person who for the past 6 years has been working as a custodian at the University Medical Center. I have worked with physical limitations for some time now and have received good work per- formance evaluations from my supervisor. Last month I was examined by two University Physicians, an Orthopedic Surgeon and a General Prac- titioner, both recognizing that I (TrrPPi nn have physical limitations but also stating that I can perform my duties and should be allowed to continue working. Instead, the University Personnel Depar- tment placed me on a forced medical leave. I have been out of work for a month with no support from the University. For 5 years I have been an ac- tive union member in the Univer- sity branch of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees. In recent union officer elections I nearly BLOOM COUNTY won a top officer position. I have gained a lot of influence with and support from my union sisters and brothers. The University recognizes my position in the union and is trying to use my physical handicap as an excuse to get me out of the University and the union. But it is just an excuse. I am being discriminated against because I am handicap- ped. If the University is allowed to use my handicap against me, even though I can do my job, then they will be able to use this against anyone with a handicap. The University doesn't seem to care about my physical condition or my financial need to keep my job. After 6 years of service I am just tossed aside-their excuse is my handicap. I have called upon the Univer- sity Board of Regents for im- mediate reinstallment and am seeking support from the com- munity. -Paul Hrabosky November 14 by Berke Breathed r. I f67MN, YOULI W, Vlq4W I I J