Nicarguan
leader
,ays U.S.
0 ;
iplanning
to invade
UNITED NATIONS (AP) - The
leader of Nicaragua's junta said
resterday that the United States plans a
Grenada-style invasion of his country
Oct., 15. He appealed to the General
Assembly "to curb this American
aggression."
Daniel Ortega, clad in a khaki
military uniform with red epaulettes
and a single red star insignia, told the
assembly that mercenary forces of the
CIA and Pentagon are concentrated on
Nicaragua's borders and U.S. ships are
,poised offshore.
"THE MILITARY offensive is ready
to begin Oct. 15 of this year," he said.
He said the United States *has even'
prepared an estimate of its own
casualties for an intervention into
Nicaragua.
In Brownsville, Texas, where
President Reagan was campaigning,
presidential chief of staff James Baker
II said Ortega's claim was "absolutely
not true."
IN Washington, Pentagon spokesman
Michael Burch called it "absolute non-
sense." He said one U.S. Navy ship is
operating off the west coast of Central
America and none off the east coast.
Under questioning, Burch said several
detachments of Green Berets are
holding a counterinsurgency exercise
with Honduran troops in Honduras
which will conclude Oct. 20.
And State Department deputy
spokesman Alan Romberg termed Or-
tega's claim "obviously absurd."
Ortega is coordinator of the leftist
Sandinista junta which took power in
Nicaragua after the Sandinistas top-
pled the Central American nation's
right-wing leader, Anastasio Somoza,
in 1979.
*Correction
Sweden has a policy of giving one per-
cent of its gross national product to un-
derdeveloped countries. A story in
yesterday's Daily incorrectly stated
that the one percent goal is a United
Nations' rule.

I

The Michigan Daily - Wednesday, October 3, 1984 - Page 3
'U' researcher: Reagans
lead may be unbeatable

By THOMAS HRACH
President Ronald Reagan is riding a
wave of popularity that is so high, it is
unlikely Democratic challenger Walter
Mondale will ever be able to surpass
him at the polls, a University resear-
cher said yesterday.
History is against Mondale because
no candidate has come from so far
behind so close to election day, said
Michael Traugott, a researcher at the
University's Institute for Social
Research.
THE LATEST Harris poll shows
Reagan 13 percentage points ahead of
Mondale.
Although the race is not over yet, "it
would be extremely difficult for Mon-
dale to come back with so little time,"
Traugott told an audience gathered at
the International Center yesterday.
Offcials it-
By LAURA BISCHOFF
Fire department officials are con-
tinuing their investigation into the
cause of a fire which last week
destroyed the third floor of the Alpha
Gamma Delta sorority house.
Electricians are still in the process of
examining the wiring in third-floor
bathroom fan motors. The exact cause
of the blaze will not be known until after
the investigation is completed, said
Henry Mallory, Ann Arbor assistant
fire chief.
ACCORDING to Mallory, the fire
caused approximately $150,000 to
$200,000 in damages to the three story
brick house.
Residents said they smelled smoke in
the house around 7 p.m. September 26
and again about 9:30 p.m. However no
one called the fire department because
the source could not be located.
But by 11:15 that night, the smoke
smell was stronger and residents called
t the fire department and evaculated the
house.
FIRE FIGHTERS located the fire in
the crawlspace which separated the
third floor and the roof.
. None of the 66 residents of the House
a on Hill Street between South Forest and
_Olivia were ignored.
Insurance officials at the Aetna Life
and Casualty refused to comment on
s the status of the claim. However, they
s did say that they began working on the
_ case "very quickly."
IT IS expected that second floor

The ISR's Center for Political
Research has conducted survey-based
research on presidential and senatorial
campaigns for more than 30 years.
"RONALD REAGAN'S campaign is
directed at his personal characteristics
instead of the issues," Traugott said.
"It's always the challenger who must
raise the issues while the incumbent
can rest on his name recognition."
Name recognition has also become a
key factor in the state's senatorial race
between Democratic incumbent Carl
Levin and Republican challenger Jack
Lousma who has used an intense adver-
tising campaign to introduce himself to
the voters.
This publicity *has worked in
Lousma's favor, Traugott said. Levin
can no longer rely on Lousma's
anonymity with the state voters to give

him a shot at keeping his senate seat.
AND THIS year, politicians can no
longer rely on the gender gap to deter-
mine who wins and who loses.
Despite the rising number of women
voters, Traugott sees the "gender gap"
growing smaller due to the poor
showing of the Mondale campaign. In
1980 the number of women who voted
equaled the number of men who cast
ballots for the first time in history.
"Women now have the majority in
the Democratic Party, and overall have
more registered voters than men," said
Traugott. "Yet after Mondale's
nomination the difference in voting pat-
terns between men and women has
declined."
.BECAUSE his team will continue to
conduct polls, Traugott said there won't
be any surprises in this year's election.


Associated Press
You don't bring me flowersA
One youngster from Toronto was just a little too shy to face Queen Elizabeth
II and Prince Philip to present them with a flower. The royal couple spent
part of the morning mingling with crowds at Toronto City Hall.
M m f
More Mafia suspe cts
sought b Ialian govt.
NEW YORK (AP) - Eleven men All 11 had previously been charged in
sought by the Italian government in a New York with heroin trafficking in the
crackdown on drug trafficking by the so-called "pizza connection" case, in
Mafia appeared in federal court which pizza parlors on the East Coast
yesterday, but eight were released and Midwest were allegedly used as a
again after a magistrate refused to hold cover for a large narcotics operation
them until an extradition hearing. allegedly run by Sicilian Mafia families
The 11 are among 28 men whose ex- Eight of the 11 had been free on high
tradition was requested Monday by the bail in the drug case, and U.S
Italian government. The 28, in turn, are Magistrate Shira Scheindlin agreed t
among 366 for whom arrest warrants apply that same bail in the Italian ex
have been issued in Italy, based largely tradition request. Assistant U.S. Attor
on the confessions of mobster-turned- ney Charles Rose argued unsuc
informant Tommaso Buscetta. cessfully that the law required suspects
ATTORNEY General William Fren- in extradition cases to be held withou
ch Smith called the Italian police bail pending a hearing on the ex
sweep, including the American arrests, See ITALIAN, Page 5
"the single most devastating assault on
the Mafia in its entire history."

a' vestigates
residents may move back into the house
within three or four weeks. Third floor
residents could be kept out as long as
three months, Disch said.
But before any reconstruction begins,
the insurance investigation must be
completed and the amount of damages
must be calculated, said Joanne Disch,
housemother. Both the fire department
and the city building and safety depar-
tment must inspect the house before
any residents can move back in,
Mallory said.
Last weekend; sorority members
stayed in other sorority houses.
"Everybody had a place (to stay),"
said Mary Ann Sire, house chairperson
and an LSA junior.
IT WAS first reported that the women
would be housed in the Briarwood
Hilton and Collegiate Sorosis sorority
house. However, new housing
arrangements have been made so that

orority fire
the 66 residents can be together at the
Kalmbach Center at 1735 Washtenaw.
The University's housing department
is leasing the Kalmbach building which
is currently for sale to the sorority. The
building was formerly used by the
business school.
The timing of the Kalmbach
building's availability "was just per-
fect" and "everyone is moving in right
now," Disch said.
The fire forced the sorority to move
its rush party to the Alpha Tau Omega
fraternity on Cambridge Street. And
despite some concern from rushees,
Diane Salle, an LSA sophomore, said
the party went "great" with "a very
good turn-out."

E L T A

'H APPENINGS-
Highlight
Cultural Night is today's theme in Hispanic Heritage Week. Laurence
Kaptain's Marimba Xelajuj will play Guatemalan music at 7 p.m. and
Jaime Aguirre's dance group, Corazon Juvenil de Mexico will perform at
7:45 p.m. in Stockwell's Main Lounge.
Films
MTF - And the Ship Sails On, 7 p.m.; Amarcord, 9:25 p.m.,
Michigan Theater.
AAFC/C2/CG - Summer Paradise, 8 p.m., MLB3.
Speakers
College of Engineering-William Rounds, CSE Theory Seminar, "Ap-
plication of Logic to Semantics of Concurrency," 3 p.m., 2080 East
Engineering Bldg.; Kenneth Kennedy and Wright Patterson, "The
Development of Aircraft Cockpit Geometry", 4 p.m., IOE Bldg.; Dan
Atkins, CAEN Evening Training Session, "Introduction to the Apollo Com-
puters," 7 p.m., Chrysler Center.; James Wilkes, Digital Computing, For-
tran-77 and MTS Lecture, "The Amdahl 5860 Computer and the Michigan
Terminal System,"7 p.m., Natural Science Auditorium.
Chemistry Department-David Albers, "Diffuse Reflection Infrared
Fourier Transform Spectroscopy-DRIFT," 4 p.m., 1200 Chemistry Bldg.;
Kent Kokko, Organic Thesis Colloquium, "A Stereospecific Approach To 7-
Amino Anthracyclines", 3 p.m., 1300 Chemistry Bldg.
Computing Center-Forrest Hartman, "Introduction to Magnetic Tapes,"
3:30 p.m. 177 Business Administration Bldg.; Paul Pickelmann, "MTS for
Programmers, Part III," 7 p.m., 171 Business Administration.
Psychiatry Department-Michael McManus, "Identification of Biological
Factors in Children at Risk for Sociopathy & Alcoholism," 10:30 a.m., CPH
Auditorium.
Economics Department-Daniel Fusfield, "Quantitative Methods," 4 p.m.
Rackham.
Center for Russian & East European Studies-Nancy Pollak, "Man-
delshtam's Journey to Armenia," noon, Lane Hall.
Meetings
Academic Alcoholics-1:30 p.m., Alano Club.
Ann Arbor Support Group for Farm Labor Organizing Committee-5:30
p.m., 4318 Michigan Union.
Science Fiction Club-8:15 p.m., Michigan League.
Chi Alpha Christian Fellowship-8 p.m., 225 Angell Hall.
Chemistry Department-Meeting for students who are interested in
Chemistry, 5 p.m., 3005 Chemistry Bldg.
Undergraduate Law Club-meeting 7:30 p.m., Kuenzel Rm., Union.
Undergraduate Political Science Association-7 p.m., 1412 Mason Hall.
Program in American Institutions-mass meeting for internship infor-
mation, 4 p.m., Kuenzel Room, Union.
American Civil Liberties Union-mass meeting to form new campus chap-
ter, 7:30 p.m., Lawyers Club, Law School.
Soaring Club-meeting, 8 p.m., 296 Dennison.
Gay Undergraduates-meeting, "Coming Out Consciousness," 9:30 p.m.,
Guild House.
Miscellaneous
UAC-Sophomore Show Auditions, 6:30 p.m. Pendleton Room.; Impact

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