0 OPINION page 4 Friday, March 16, 1984 The Michigan Daily: l k Y 4p Primaries expose political upstarts By Scott Winkelman In 1952, a political maverick, Sen. Estes Kefauver, became the first cam- paigner to skillfully employ the* primary system to gain national teknown. Although Kefauver even- tually did not receive the Democratic Nomination, his example signalled a tiramatic addition to presidential politics. By 1968, primary voting ac-. Counted for over 40 percent of Democratic delegates to the national convention, while by 1972 primaries dletermined a substantial majority of the total delegation. 'Subsequent elections have witnessed Other political upstarts hoping to crash into public awareness on the heels of unexpected primary successes. George McGovern shocked political observers 6y finishing a close second to Edmund Muskie injA972 New Hampshire Primary. Similarly, Jimmy Carter's upsets in Iowa and New Hampshire literally catapulted him to national. rdeognition in 1976. THIS YEAR'S obvious beneficiary is, 4uprisingly enough, Sen. Gary Hart. the primary season was significantly compacted and shortened previous to the 1984 contest, a move expected to work to Walter Mondale's advantage. Riding atop an impressive ensemble of endorsements and financial sponsors, Mondale's strategists hoped to quickly' tire the other candidates out, leave lit- tle time for rest and repair, and lock up the nomination by March 13. Now, in- stead, we find Mondale gasping for political life while: Hart basks in the glory of spectacular primary victories. Recovering from the initial shock, caused by these outcomes, we must consider their relevance to the presidential election and the im- plications for Democratic hopes for vic- tory in November. First of all, those who vote in primaries tend to constitute a very select, unrepresentative group com, posed primarily of party activists, highly motivated Democratic par- tisans, and fanatic loyalists of par- ticular candidates. The efforts of these ardent supporters can lead to im- pressive primary showings, as was demonstrated repeatedly during McGovern's 1972 campaign. But McGovern's disastrous election defeat that year also indicates that such sup- port does not guarantee, nor even strongly suggest the likelihood of elec- tion. Michael Harrington claimed that 1980 marked the "exhaustion of traditional liberalism." Though seemingly premature then, Harrington's premise will be put to a clear test this year in the candidacy of Walter Mondale. For years now Mondale's election strategy has been clear. He hoped to capture the support of leaders representing traditional Democratic constituencies, stress his experience and leadership ability, and glorify his record of lifetime defense of the impoverished, the manual worker, blacks, and other loyal Democrats. The strategy is strikingly similar to that employed by his political mentor, Hubert Humphrey, in securing the 1968 Democratic nomination. BUT THE political landscape has changed considerably in the decade and a half since Humphrey's success, a fact of which Mondale must now be pain- fully aware. The 1968 election proved to be the swan song for union/party in- sider/city boss dominance of the Democratic party apparatus. Cap- turing the support of union and city leaders no longer guarantees the sup- port of union members and city dwellers. Gary Hart's primary showings have been particularly im- pressive, for instance, in the number of union members who preferred him over Mondale. The ability of party leaders and affiliates to deliver votes of their constituents will be severely tested in 1984. Mondale also finds himself on the losing end of a new application of an old political term. "Special interests," various observers have noted, referred in the past to wealthy industrialists, monstrous conglomerates, and in- dividuals who wielded power by virtue of their family fortunes. Rarely has a Democrat who vociferously defends the traditional electoral base been attacked for representing "special interests." Most Democratic leaders of the past some in search of a "reason to believe," others because they have actually read Hart's voluminous position papers. Hart also appeals to "Yuppies" - young, urban professionals - who are ap- proximately the same age and share the future-oriented outlook of the can- didate. UNFORTUNATELY for Hart, these individuals do not swing election out- comes. History has demostrated. 'losing the youth vote overall to Richard Nixon. Hart intentionally conjuries up John Kennedy's campaign style, and does so more than on simply a surface level. Aside from superficial similarities, Kennedy was the first Democratic nominee to capture significant subur- ban support, an achievement Hart seems able to duplicate. Kennedy, meanwhile, possessed a fanatically loyal group of supporters that Hart cannot expect to claim - his religious brethren. Catholics provided nearly half of Kennedy's votes in 1960, an astonishing figure (although studies, reveal that the religious issue actually cost Democrats votes in that election). Religion should not be a factor in 1984: Hart, although a Presbyterian, in- dicates no religious preference in his campaign literature, while Mondale is a Methodist. MOST CENTRAL to Hart's campaign is the recurring theme of "newness." Hart supporters claim that the race between Hart and Mondale is not one of left versus right, or East versus West, but rather old against new. The significance of this strategy goes beyond obvious implications. Mondale launched his campaign in a cloud of vagueness regarding issue positions, and is now stressing specific proposals. Hart, meanwhile, was labelled an "idea" man early on, and has only recently toned down his emphasis on specifics. This, in part, stems from Hart's in- telligence as a strategist and cam- paigner. The renowned political scien- tist, V.O. Key, once warned that voters are "not likely to be attracted in great numbers by promises of the novel or unknown." The most recent "new" candidate, former Gov. Jerry Brown, painfully realized the result of stressing novel ideas when his campaign sput- tered in early 1980. A popular misconception suggests that Franklin Roosevelt ran as the "New Deal" candidate in 1932. In fact, Roosevelt campaigned as a moderate' Democrat, rarely discussing new ideas: and even chastising Herbert Hoover as" a big spender! Hart and his pollsters are aware that voters, while naturally; receptive and attracted to newness, do not necessarily want the specifics of, that newness articulated. Hart does:' sponsor new, innovative ideas, as: anyone who reads his literature and, listens to his speeches can testify. But-a" recent New York Times headline som- marized the average voter's reason for siding with the senator from Colorado: "Anniston, Ala., Voters Focus On Hart's Style, Not on His Issues." A vir- tually insignificant aspect of the current race, then, is ideology. Mondale calls himself a traditional Democrat, while Hart labels himself a "Jefferson- style Western populist." Neither calls himself a liberal, at least not when avoidable. Mondale hopes to ride into San Fran- cisco on the shoulders of traditional Democratic backers. Hart talks about a electoral base constituting a national political phenomenon. In 1980, the' presidential vote split largely by race and sex, with blacks and women for the most part sticking with Carter. Hart at- tracks a sizeable female vote, claims tshat he can capture the traditionally Republican Western states, and has cut into Mondale strongholds - union members, lower-class Democrats - in the early primaries. The result of the candidates' struggle, then, may very well be perceived as either reinstating the traditional Democratic coalition or ushering in a new era in Democratic politics. Along the way, let us remember that much more is at stake than selet- ting a nominee. iy Scott Winkelman is editor-i- chief of Consider and associate editor of the Michigan Journal of Political Science. Party activists who helped boost George McGovern to success in the 1972 primaries could not win him the election. Now Gary Hart is basking in the glory of such spectacular primary victories. But can he keep his followers through Novermber 1984? would consider it ludicrous not to confer special interest upon constituencies which consistently vote Democratic. Gary Hart's use of the term, however, has struck a responsive chord in the hearts of many primary voters, and such labels are hard to escape once securely attached. To what "special intersts," then, is Gary Hart beholden? So far the answer puzzles political analysts. College students flock to the Hart campaign, however embarrassing it may be to this author, that the college vote is virtually meaningless in presidential politics. If John F. Kennedy and George McGovern could not rally students to vote, there is little reason to believe Hart can. Furthermore, when young adults do vote, they do not necessarily vote Democratic. The campus activist is not the typical young voter, as McGovern painfully discovered in 1972 when he carried the college vote while 'I .c 4 e gdgan Micga Edited and mornoged by students at The University of Michigan Sinclair 4,ti OA K. FTON Vol. XCV--No. 131 420 Maynard St., Ann Arbor, M! 48109 K NY T -C., Editorials represent a majority opinion of the Daily's Editorial Board Here's' E HAS a special competence and special sensitivity," said' former Vice President Walter Mondale at a Senate reelection fundraiser in 1979. "If we lose Gary Hart it could change the course of this entire nation." Well, Senator Hart has- definitely changed the course of the Democratic primary process, and he does appear to have the competence and sensitivity that Mondale recognized five years ago. His star-. tling early successes have forced questions of whether the voters are responding to a Kennedyesque style or whether they are responding to specific ideas and character. But Hart is more than the hairspray candidate and he offers the greatest potential to provide effective leadership for this nation. "Where's the beef?" Mondale quip- ped during last week's debate in Atlan- ta. In response, much of Hart's beef is seen in his refusal to compartmen- talize the national interest into isolated groups with protected interests. Hart has refused all "contributions from political action committees and had the courage in front of labor represen- tating to defend his opposition to the Chrysler bailout and domestic content legislation. He explained that such measures might benefit labor in the short run, but damage the auto in- dustry in the long run. Hart is admittedly not a short term candidate. His congressional record and campaign rhetoric point to a policy that looks more to the future collective good than to the 'immediate isolated favor. He has acknowledged and is at- tempting to deal with the advance of the beef may be painful, but they reveal an honest vision of where this country is headed. Hart's progressivism is also revealed in his proposals for military reform. The emphasis of his policy is placed on small, cheap, reliable weapons over high-tech, high-cost weapons and on a maneuver strategy of surprise rather than a "give 'em all we've got" attrition strategy. With the exception of his support for a nuclear "build-down" in Western Europe, his thinking on military issues is refreshingly independent and lucid. Hart has also shown that being in- dependent doesn't mean being incon- sistent. Based on his record in Congress, Hart has received strong approval from women's, civil liberties, and environmental groups. When he ran for reelection in Colorado in 1980 one women's group endorsed him over a female candidate and his record in the last two Congresses has earned him a perfect vote rating from the National Women's Political Caucus. In addition, the ACLU rates his record on civil liberties the highest in the Senate. He is consistent when consistency is required. His strong support of the Alaska Lands Law has also won him the respect of environmentalists. And just because he's running against Mondale doesn't mean he's not sym- pathetic to labor - the AFL-CIO's Committee on Political Education gave him a career approval rating of 80 percent. Hart has pleased a lot of people without making promises. Gary Hart's greatest strength lies in his ability to act decisively based upon his convictions. The fact that he owes 'E AREC u INT.4,t CAIN KF ROM A A TW ( ow * II'. jj $HPADING FtR A W CAGST W ALI U hIR ~ON 1T/ Is ,O ES GfRAWTON VE HM/$-AIR CE 4ARWy R'R~Th ' w2Qr N OW AN ubI IFi rCAME UA'SIr WH47 f B'I CUi yfEI AVCRA Fr'fJN~K TV. 1RYf TER HAS AN I.Q. or VbR Y- SEVEN 1TiATS WNY 4 '44 !!'". i j "" l J, - w j > I 4 4 I lifsINK ,AGoTHEN dot R- .a~e de ee... e . eedeedee. .r...de deekzdee..deef.. deet dee LETTERS TO THE DAILY: 4 Arguments against mandatory dues To the Daily I feel that your editorial on the controversy over mandatory GEO dues. (Daily, March 9) significantly misrepresented the position of our organization, Graduate Students for an Open University. We have been characterized as a group of angry graduate students who do not want to pay our union dues. This is true. However, the reason for our anger is not the money in- volved in the dues, as the repor- ters at the Daily have repeatedly implied. As I have tried to ex- plain to your reporters, we have retain the right to withhold finan- cial support of the union. 3) They object to being in a union for personal reasons and resent being forced to support one to do something they regard as part of their graduate education. 4) They find the idea of unionizing such a transient group as TAs to be unwise, since it en- tails having present students negotiate on the behalf of future students. BLOOM COUNTY 5) They feel that a closed shop- policy should not be implemented unless a majority of the TAs sup- port it and therefore have signed the petition to bring about such a vote. As evidenced by the above, the TAs who are supporting the effor- ts of Graduate Students for an Open University are a diverse group with different concerns. By describing them as materialistic malcontents, you have stripped this issue of its depth and sub- tlety. This is a disservice to all TAs, as well as the rest of your readers. - Julia L. Goldberg March 14 Letters and columns represent the opinions of the individual author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the attitudes or beliefs of the Daily. by Berke Breathed I AtJCIS. MY MAN-, ATw GON4NA HAVE WIWD55! WILt OKAY* A I WRyIM I