I OPINION Page4 Thursday, January 13, 1983 The Michigan Daily Question for 1984: Will Ronnie run? By Michael Caro witz Although the thought of electing a,-president in 1984 may be the farthest thing from most American minds, it is a leading topic of conver- sation in Washington. The hopes and prospects of many potential candidates hinge on a single question: Will President Reagan run seek re- election? President Reagan's personal popularity among the electorate has remained unusually high despite the fact that his administration's policies have sparked debate and controversy. There is no evidence to suggest that the president would be easy, to beat, should he decide to seek re-election. Unemployment is undoubtedly the major problem facing President Reagan at the present time. This problem, in fact, ultimately may determine the success or failure of the Reagan administration. Continuing double- digit unemployment could prove fatal to the president's re-election chances. White House strategists tested the waters last fall with a pitch that eventually could become the adminsitration's last ditch effort to win votes in 1984. Voters were reminded that even though high unemployment existed, the president had succeeded in easing inflation and lowering interest rates. In short, two out of three was not bad. The midterm elections also highlighted some :other political realities that President Reagan will have to address in the months ahead. The most important of these is the growing "gender gap" in support for the administration. Women were much more likely to vote against Republican congressional candidates than the corresponding men of their age group. The president's recent appointment of Elizabeth Dole to head he Department of Transportation is only the first step necessary to close this gap. On a brighter election note, conservative Lewis Lehrman came within an eyelash of up- setting Democrat Mario Cuomo for the New York governor's chair. Lehrman had often stressed his belief that Reaganomics did not go far enough. It is unlikely that President Reagan will face a challenge for the Republican nomination if he announces his intention to run again. Never- theless, several aspirants are carefully wat- ching for hints that he may sit out this election and retire early to his California ranch. Possible contenders include Vice President George Bush, Rep. Jack Kemp (R-New York), Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kansas) and Sen. Howard Baker (R-Tenn.). With their hands tied until the president makes his plans known, these aspirants will find it in their best interests to remain loyal to the White House. Perhaps the strongest signal that President Reagan will seek a second term is the appoin- tment of Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-Nevada) to head the Republican National Committee. A per- sonal friend of the president, Laxalt has publicly stated his certainty that President Reagan will run again. In addition, against official objections by the White House, conservative activist Lyn Nof- ziger has already convened meetings to discuss re-election strategy. Nofziger is lobbying the president to make his intentions clear by the summer months. President Reagan's decision, however, may not be evident until later in the year. On one hand, an early announcement of his candidacy would leave him open to charges of playing partisan politics, and would also weaken his hand with the new and more Democratic Congress. On the other hand, an early decision to retire after only one term would im- mediately make him a lame-duck president and limit his overall effectiveness. Until the first GOP presidential straw ballots approach later this year, it is safer for President Reagan to remain silent about his decision while continuing to send out signals of interest in a second term. If President Reagan does decide to seek re- election, he will undoubtedly benefit from the electorate's desire to see a president succeed. Strong opposition to the president's policies certainly exists in some areas, yet much of mainstream America is still retaining its patience and hope in the president. All things considered, President Reagan " remains the GOP's best bet to hold onto the White House. His personal popularity and political mastery also insure that a Democratic landslide in 1984 is unlikely. AP Photo Reagan: Testing the waters? Carowitz is an LSA junior. ---- - ---------- Edited and managed by students at The University of Michigan Wasserman A Vol. XCIII, No. 84 420 Maynard St. Ann Arbor, MI 48109 Editorials represent a majority opinion of the Daily's Editorial Board Birth contr T HE ADMINISTRATION that used to pride. itself on keeping gover- nment out of American lives is now at- tempting to climb into the bedrooms and back seats with American teenagers. Outgoing Health and Human Ser- vices Secretary Richard Schweiker has proposed new regulations that would force agencies that dispense contraceptives to teenagers to notify the recipients' parents. Schweiker, who recently resigned his post, said the new regulations are all being proposed to promote the health and safety of teenagers and to improve family relations. In fact, the proposal inhibits the achievement of any of those goals. Most teenagers will have sex even if they do not obtain birth control. In these days of rapidly rising teenage pregnancies, awareness and availability of suitable and effective birth control methods is essential. Ignorance and locked up diaphragms and birth control pills are no way to combat the growing number of pregnant teenagers, yet that is what the administration is proposing. Teenagers who are inclined to keep their parents closely informed about their lives, will probably be able to talk to their parents about sex. But, by the same token, teenagers who are not so inclined won't necessarily abstain ol blunder from sex. If the new proposals go into effect, the teenagers who do not have a good rapport with their parents will suffer - not from a lack of sex, but rather from higher pregnancy rates. Those teenagers will merely use less effec- tive contraceptives which can be bought over the counter in anonymous drug stores or use nothing at all. Growing teenage pregnancy rates are much more risky to teenage health and safety than the imperfect but ef- fective birth control devices available in family planning clinics. Surely con- fidentiality in family planning clinics is far less dangerous to the public than the spectre of an increase in backroom abortions. What the new HHS proposals offer teenagers is not better rapport with their parents or fewer health risks. What it does offer is a greater role for government in private matters - a better chance for the government to impose its version of the proper family on everyone. Teenagers old enough to seek birth control do not need an additional bur- den for preventing unwanted pregnan- cy. It is now up to the Office of Management and Budget - or the courts - to strike the silly proposal down so that the young will not have to suffer from the illogic of the Reagan administration. Tu Mo TA Q~ &1'4iN WHY CNOTI To PW9'L- V~O C'.-UKTO?U~~ * il- t~-i l-T-iir- Ti*NWINN ~ 4 - pUBLA C cIOts ( 4 You MR t~oN'T Dc ALED VL TRNT 21 __ Q z 17 J a C r c v1 Z y 14 LETTERS TO THE DAILY: 4 Daily goofed on CARD article 1r ' ;r :i ti fh . _ ,:; To the Daily: Regarding the article on CARD and the Gray Panthers Meeting (Daily, Jan. 9), I would like to make some corrections regar- ding quotes attributed to me. I actually said that enlistment propaganda, not "registration procedures," creates a kind of "poverty draft," a term which means that some people have so few options in society that they are shunted into the military even without a draft. The military pays ad agencies big bucks to sell people the idea that the military will give back to them everything that society has taken away from them. My point was that the draft and high- pressure tactics for enlistment are two sides of the same coin. Both exploit the poor. I said that noncompliance rates for draft registration are high, not compliance rates, compared to the Vietnam era percentages. No draft counselor is in the ad- vising business, and it is bad getting some straight facts out to the people. Selective Service is mailing out thousands of letters to non- registrants in an attempt to raise the registration compliance rates. These names were ob- tained from computer matches with driver's licenses, Social Security and IRS lists. Receipt of one of these letters does not mean that an individual has been "found." It is not logistically possible for the government to prosecute over half a million nonregistrants. Only 13 men have been indicted in two and a half years, all open resisters. Assistant Attorney General D. Lowell Jensen wrote SSS recently that "the chances that a quiet non-registrant will be prosecuted are probably about the same as the chances that he will be struck by lightning." -Mary Roth January 11 4 'U'fans unfair to Pelekoudas ti W1 / To the Daily: As a loyal University basket- ball fan who attends most of the home and some of the away games, I am disgusted with the behavior of some so-called "fans" who seem to get pleasure from reacting negatively whenever Dan Pelekoudas (No. 32) enters a game. They must not know the meaning of the word class-a trait which Pelekoudas tributions that Pelekoudas made last season. Based on Frieder's quotes, one would think there was only one guard, Eric Turner, on the team. Pelekoudas was rarely, if ever, given credit for any of last year's late season success. Even after the Ohio State game which was won by his shot at the buzzer, most of the quotes dealt with the quality of Turner's per- formance. Perhaps those fans who find it coaches were too busy building up their superstars to be aware of these facts. As a former athlete, I realize the importance of being relaxed and loose during competition. Any athlete would find it difficult to play his game smoothly if he were pulled out of the game every time he made a mistake or tur- nover. This apparently is what is happening this season to Pelekoudas. How could you per- ORNFAMBRAMM WM