WHO WILL BE HARDEST HIT?

S. African sanctio

A UPI News Analysis
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -
South Africa's stubborn opposition to
independence for South West Africa has
brought new calls for international san-
ctions from the United Nations council
for the territory, a region as big as
Texas and Arkansas that also is known
as Namibia.
Sanctions have hung over South.
Africa's head since it adopted a policy
of race segregation or apartheid two
decades ago. So, despite government
warnings to prepare for the worst, the
man in the street appears more concer-
ned about the supply of scotch whiskey
than the national economy.
"Sanctions can't hurt us," said Jan
Van As, a building contractor. "Little
things like cigarettes and whiskey
might become short, but so what? This
country is loaded. South Africa is a sur-
vivor."
SPRIME MINISTER Pieter Botha
likes to refer to sanctions as "a double-
edged sword." As the mineral super-
market of the West, South Africa can
withhold minerals such as chrome and
platinum and cause disruptions in
numerous world economies.
Following the bloody 1976 riots in the
all-black Johannesburg suburb of

Soweto, South Africa increased its
overseas borrowing by 50 percent and
poured the money into huge capital
projects aimed at making the country
self-sufficient in industries as diverse
as energy, automobiles, petro-
chemicals, agriculture - even
whiskey.
Faced with an arms embargo after
riots in the Soweto riots, South Africa
gave top priority to establishing an ar-
ms industry. Starting from scratch, it
became an arms exporter in four years.
STOCKPILING HAS become official
government policy. In some strategic
industries, government loans do not
have to be repaid as long as inventories
are kept at a certain level. All types of

rationing programs could be put into ef-
fect in less than a week.
A comprehensive study of sanctions
by Prof. Arnt Spandau of Johan-
nesburg's Witwatersrand University
predicted trade sanctions only 20 per-
cent effective would put about 90,000
whites and 340,000 blacks out of work or
about 20 percent of the respective labor
forces.
His economic model shows "the rate
of black job advancement will decline"
and chances are that blacks, the inten-
ded benefactors of the boycott, "will
suffer most" from it.

is may
SPANDAU PREDICTS that, if
Britain were to totally boycott South
Africa, more than 60,000 Britons would
lose their jobs because of the high trade
volume between the two countries.
But sanctions would be a more
serious blow to black southern African
states that depend heavily on South
Africa for manufactured goods, food
and employment.
South Africa employs an estimated
350,000 foreign blacks from Lesotho,
Swaziland, Botswana, Malawi,
Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Most are
on a contract basis with payment in

af
goia remteu u
government. Th
the first to go.
JANUARY-TC
figures show Sou
black states tota
imports amount
Internally, sa
threat to relat
Africa's four m
million blacks.
"Sanctions wo

The Michigan Daily-Friday, December 12, 1980-Page 17-,
feet trade
.ire uy L L M iureign black leftist radicals as a victory ov r
ose workers would be South Africa, and this could certainl
lead to internal unrest and high black
Q- September trade expectations for change," said JoO#
uth African exports to Barret, director of the Institute of Ift-
alled $1.1 billion while ternational Affairs.
ed to $294 million. Political analysts point out that iii
nctions pose a great ternal unrest might be met with
tions between South renewed government crackdowns and
nillion whites and 18 would certainly slow the reforms in-
troduced by Botha since he came to
uld be interpreted by power almost two years ago.


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