Agoa l view
Prof examines the
world political scene
University Prof. Harold
Jacobson is a widely-known
authority on international
politics. After earning his Ph.D.
at Yale University, he returned to
the ,University of Michigan, 'his
alma mater, in 1957. In addition
to his duties as a political science
professor, Jacobson is program
director of the University's Cen-
terfor Political Studies in the In-
stitute 'for Social Research.
Jacobson will return to the co-
chairmanship of the political
science department next term, a
position he held from 1972 to
1977. Jacobson discussed inter-
,national political trends Wed-
nesday with Daily staff reporter
" Do you believe the Soviets will
inove into Poland militarily while
4 we're on vacatiQ?,
Jacobson: I think there's a strong
possibility that the Russians will
move into Poland. I don't know quite
how they would do that - whether
they would do it under the guise of
maneuvers or whether they would
do it actually as an intervention in
'Which they anticipated strong reac-
tion on the part of the Poles. But I
"think* it's a strong possibility that
they'll be in before the year is over.
You have written and lectured
about the increasing importance of
international popular opinion. In
light of this, wouldn't such a move
completely isolate the Soviet Union
in the world community, actually
making it counter-productive?
Jacobson: I think if they go in,
they're going to have to pay a very
severe price. . . not in the Sense of
military intervention. If the West
tried to prevent them from going in,
I think that would be World War III,
and I think and hope that that's
unlikely. I think they suffered cer-
tain consequences for what they did
n Afghanistan, and I think they'd
uffer even more severe consequen-
ces for moving into Poland. It seems
to me that they probably will suffer
more economically, as Western
urope is more likely to unpose san-
ction against thein, n tg nt get in
.ny trade deals witi tem..'
Do you see this type of internal
unrest spreadng into the other
Eastern Bloc nations?
Jacpbson: In the long run, it
seems to me that there is certain to
be pressure for change throughout
astern Europe and in the Soviet
union itself, pressure for greater
human freedom. And I think that
probably can't be arrested whatever
they do. I think that's the long run
evolution. Through a military inter-
vention, I think the Soviets might
believe that they were slowing it -
and in the short run they might
arrest it. But I don't think they can
stop it, because the more people are
educated the more they are going to
,!want these things.
Soviet President Brezhnev, before
announcing his doctrine for Persian
Gulf peace, pledged Tuesday that
Soviet troops will remain in
Afghanistan indefinitely. At what
, oint will they be spreading them-
(Continued from Page Three)
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See HAPPENINGS, Page 15
... optimistic nature
selves too thin?
Jacobson; I think they could
militarily manage both Poland and
Afghanistan, I think at pretty severe
costs. To manage Poland would
require a big military commitment,
much bigger than they've "got in
Afghanistan. I think if they were to
go beyond that, they'd really be in
quite serious trouble. But, those two
things they can manage - going
beyond that, however, would raise
real problems with them.
What effect, do you think this
relatively tumultuous international
climate will have in the initial phase
of the Reag in administration?
Jacobson. As I understand what
his priorities-wege, I think they were
first of all to try to do something
about the American economy, which
he argued during the campaign was
in bad shape. I think that even with
an invasion of Poland, he probably
wouldn't shift from that priority
very much. He was committed to
building up the defense budget
anyway, and this will certainly rein-
force that commitment. But I don't
think he's going to do much beyond
that - if all the Russians do is in-
vade Poland. I think that would sim-
ply reinforce all of his inclinations.
So I don't think the turmoil we now
face in that part of the world will
cause him big 'problems.
,What atrethe central concernst in
your view, for U.S. international
policy as we enter 1981?
Jacobson;I think we face two big
problems. One is how we deal with
the Russians and convince them that
we're not going to be pushed around
and we're going to stand for certain
things - without, at the same time,
getting into a terrible arms race or
getting into World War III and
blowing up the world. So it's how we
build up our own military force and
also have arms control. That seems
to be the really difficult problem to
deal with. The other challenge I
think is the economic challenge of
how we're goingto participate in the
development of the world, par-
ticularly the Third Worfd.
As you speculate on these global
developments, do you find cause for,
Jacobson: Yes, but as much
because of my basic nature as
because of any objective sign.
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