OPINION Wednesday, November 25, 1981 The Michigan Daily 0 An examination of military research By John Adam In recent months, Defense Department spon- sored research at the University has come un- der fire from several student and faculty groups. Military research, they charge, is synonomous with research for destructive pur- poses. In addition,, they claim that much military sponsored research is applied or classified which threatens the exchange of free ideas that any university community should foster. Before making any decisions, however, one should carefully examine the evidence. Exhibit A: Gov. William Milliken plans the establishment of a Defense Research and Development Procurement Panel to coordinate cooperative efforts among businesses, colleges and universities, and state government agen- cies to aggressively pursue Defense Depar- tment research and development oppor- tunities. Exhibit B: George Gamota, former director for research in the Defense Department Of- fice of Research and Engineering, was appoin- ted director of the University's Institute of Science and Technology in June. Speaking to the American Association for the Avancement of Science last year, Gamota reportedly advocated a close relationship bet- ween the Defense Department and universities similar to the one shared in World War IL "The premise was to build up large univer- sity graduate centers around skilled resear- ches who were not only working on the frontiers of science but were also cognizant of the defen- se needs of the nation," Gamota said. Exhibit C: Robert Law, Executive Assistant to the Governor and Director of the High Technology Task Force, when asked about the relationship between the Defense Research and Development Procurement Panel- and the proposed $200 million robotics center told the Daily: "Clearly there are dollars out there that could be assisting in sup- porting the initial research activities that would go on in a center like this." Exhibit D: The University's Center for Robotics and Integrated Manufacturing sub- mits large research proposals to the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the Army Research Office. These grants will total over $2 million a year. Verdict: Because of a lack of any existing incriminating evidence, the state and the University are not guilty. Defense Department sponsored research does not mean that the University will become an outlet for weapon-making. While currently, there is a push to solicit military funds for 'University research, it does not meal that University scientists will be making contracts to build bombs and that the ideals of the University ultimately will be sacrificed. Carefully monitored, Defense Department research can allow the University to flourish. As Engineering College Dean James Duder stadt said, "They're (the military) better about supporting basic research in many areas than the National Science Foundation is." AN EXAMPLE OF this is the robotics center (CRIM) recently established with the Univer- sity's College of Engineering. Duderstadt said that the military is in- terested in supporting robotics because the vitality of American industry is important for national security. A U.S. House of Represen- tatives trade subcommittee recently said the lack of U.S. industrial progress and economic goals as compared with Japan "should be as shocking to Americans as was Sputnik." From this, one can see why the military is so in- terested in promoting industry by funding robotics research. Dunderstadt said that both proposals for research in robotics to the military were for basic research, with no strings attached. The Acting Director of CRIM, Daniel Atkins, even said that one-third of the proposed Air Force grant is for training graduate students. IN THE FUTURE, both the state and the University will have growing ties with the Defense Department. To assume that this in- creased cooperation is malevolent is shor- tsighted. The Defense Department has demon- strated its willingness to sponsor basic resear- ch-the core of the University's research program. Promoting this research will only benefit the University in the long run. However, such research must be closely watched. It would be advisable to establish strong bi-partisan panels, both at the state and University level, to monitor this increased ac- tivity with the military and to ensure the University will not compromise its values. Adam is a Daily staff writer. a a _. LETTERS TO THE DAILY: Edited and managed by students at The University of Michigan Daily didn 't interview director 0 Vol. XCII, No. 66 420 Maynord St. Ann Arbor, MI 48109 Editorials represent a majority opinion of the Daily's Editorial Board I' Giving thanks AT A TIME when unemployment is A at an historic high, the arms race is at its peak, social programs are con- stantly cut and slashed, and term paper deadlines loom, it seems like there is little to be thankful for on Thursday. It's almost hypocritical, a lot of us think, to "give thanks" one day of the year when we bitch the other 364. 4ven most editorials in the Daily complain about things that aren't good: nuclear arms; changes in the Consumer Price Index; U.S. in- volvement in El Salvador; lack of student involvement in budget-making decisions. It's just a lot easier to find fault than it is to find something good. But if you try really hard, you can find some things to be thankful for on Thursday. The administration hasn't succeeded in eliminating all depar- tments that don't do money-making research; Michigan is playing a decent team in the Bluebonnet Bowl; the country hasn't really run out of money; and there are only two weeks of classes left. Thanksgiving doesn't have to be pious-Pilgrim-loving-prayer-it can just be being thankful for some small things that affect you. Whether its something as serious as the fact that we aren't in a nuclear war or something as little as winter break coming, there's usually something you can find to be thankful for. We're happy that we have vacation for the next four days. Happy Thanksgiving. To the Daily: It's a bit peculiar that the Daily, would publish an article regar- ding the usefulness and accuracy of the econometric forecasting program of the Research Seminar in Quantitative' Economics (Daily, Nov. 22) without interviewing the program's director. I would, therefore, appreciate the oppor- tunity to contribute a few of my own thoughts and to correct some gregarious errors which crept into the published article. Our sole contact with the author of the article was to provide a tableareviewing the accuracy of all past RSQE forecastsback to 1954. Unfortunately the author misread the table, despite the heading which explained the numbers quite carefully. Thus the article claims that 1977 was 'a year in which the forecasted growth in real Gross National Product was off by nearly 13 per- cent" and that's pretty bad in- deed. Fortunately for our credibility, the truth is that our forecast was off by nearly 13 billion dollars, not percent-an error of about one percent of the level of real GNP. Quite a good forecast, ac- tually, when correctly inter- preted. The 1974 situation (the oil em- bargo, OPEC .period) did indeed produce a large forecast error, butagain the incorrect and naive interpretationdingthe article.is grossly misleading. We had forecast that real GNP would in- crease by 19.3 billion dollars, in- stead it decreased by 18 billion dollars-clearly a big error. The article, however, claims thatthese were the predicted and actual percentage changes. Now' a 19.3 percent growth in real GNP is enormous as is an 18 percent drop. Thus it appears from the t article that we were predicting 1 an unprecedentedly strong 1 economic boom while the reality r was the Great Depression!< In point of fact, our forecast 1 was useless despite the error. Real GNP had grown by more than 5.5 percent both in 1972 and 1973. In the fall of 1973, with the dimensions of the OPEC period only dimly understood, we were forecasting that the growth of real GNP would be cut to only 2.3 percent ($19.3 billion) in 1974. We were wrong in not seeing that the real GNP would actually drop in 1974, but we sure knew that the OPEC shock was going to change f the tone of economic activity by a substantial degree. I would claim that we-and others of our colleagues in the economic forecasting business-were in- deed providing useful infor- mation about 1974 even though we missed the magnitude of the OPEC impact. Some ecomonists do indeed, as the Daily article implies, question whether econometric forecastingecould possibly be a useful guide to policymaking or t to private decision processes. That is part of a sometimes- subtle debate currently flourishing in the economics literature. In the midst of a debate, the proponents of oneside or the other often take polar positions in order to make their t debating points. The debate is useful because we're all learning from it, but the. unfortunate fact is that the ap- parently strongest criticisms of econometric forecasting are being levelled at 'straw men" (again, a common debating tac- tic). We provide information about the short term outlook for the economy, while the big + Students lacked class debate is primarily about the long run and has relatively little to say about the short run. I have no trouble citing RSQE's record as evidence that our procedures provide very useful information To the Daily: After attending the Michigan- Ohio State football game Satur- day, I feel disappointed in my school. I'm not referring to Michigan's football team. They .did their best and unfortunately, lost. What I am talking about is my fellow students attending the game. Before the game, when OSU's marching band prepared to take the field at the student end of the stadium they were pelted by' snowballs! Not just a couple of snowballs, but rather, a virtual avalanch of snow was released on the OSU band members.; ' One of the best feelings I have about attending Michigan is that this school and its students have more class than any other school.. Having our, band pelted with snowballs 'down in Columbus, Ohio is what I would have expec.- ted from OSU students. it was disappointing- to see my fellow, students acting in a manner un- becoming to this school. beoigt hsSho. ;,,I realize that this letter wilt probably do nothing in stopping this type of violent occur'ence. But I feel is necessary to speak out. This type of incident gives our school a tarnished reputatioi which is truly undeserved. Since we leave a first-class Univer- sity, I feel we should conduct our- selves in a first-class manner. -David Mehregan November 22 to the users of' econometric forecasts. -Saul H. Hymans Professor of Economics & Statistics Director, RSQE November 23 6 Lauding the 'U' "HOW ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE THI % 1 CO 3! q S® Y y.y To the Daily: Breakthrough members wish to express their appreciation for the recent changes in the parking regulations affecting handicap- ped students. This month, the University Executive Officers granted han- dicapped University students special exemption from parking fees for next fall. The exemption will be of great immediate andvlong-term benefit to many handicapped students at the University. Disabled students add to the value of the University community, and the recent changes will help to equalize the participation of those students at the University who have mobility impairments. The reactions of the Executive Officers are particularly ap- propriate during this, the Inter- national Year of Disabled Per- sons. -Mary Weberman Breakthrough President November 23 60 Bad choice of cartoons An alum's lament I To the Daily: The Michigan Daily should use better judgment in selecting which editorial cartoons to publish. A recent cartoon (Nov. 17, 1981) portrayed a comical Menachem Begin explaining the very serious problem of civilian deaths which have resulted from Israeli attacks on the Palestine Liberation Organization in Lebanon. Not only was the car- toon a misrepresentation of' Prime Minister Begin but its supposed rgessage was contrary to actual Israeli policy.' " It is not nor has ever been Israeli policy to bomb civilian targets in Lebanon. In fact, because of the risk of killing civilians in bombing raids, the Israelis have practiced restraint from attacking the Palestine Liberation Organization even as the terrorist organization has ex- panded its activities in Lebanon. When Israel has used force in Lebanon it has been in response to PLO provo- cation. This past summer's bombing of Lebanon, for exam- ple, resulted from the PLO's knows that the Israelis are ap- prehensive to attack if civilian lives are endangered. If the Israelis do attack, the PLO still gains politically since it screams bloody murder to a hypocritical world waiting for the Israelis to make their next mistake. " Contrary to what the cartoon' infers, the PLO terrorists in Lebanon do not have the support of the people. Ask any Lebanese, who has seen what the PLO has done to his/her proud nation, if the PLO has popular support. Brute force is how the PLO has maintained its strong presence in Lebanon for the past decade. * Whatever the wisdom of Israeli bombing raids in Lebanon, Menachem Begin has expressed his country's grief for the loss of civilian life and not the casual, carefree attitude portrayed in the cartoon. Con- trast this to the PLO which boasts eash time a terrorist unit suc- ceeds on a mission directed at civilians. Just last week, for example, the PLO took "credit" for the fatal attack on a moderate Palestinian Arab leadier on the To the Daily: I write to register one alum's r sadness that his alma mater is now mostly thought of across the land as a football powerhouse rather than as a distinguished center of scholarship and lear- ning. -James A. Stegenga November 19 Letters and columns represent the opinions of ire individual author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the g attitudes or beliefs of the Daily. an4 . I Y0 -j f 0 i.