The Michigan Daily-Sunday, November 22, 1981-Page 5
By Don Rubin
If you started at the front
door and walked around this
house in either direction you'd
pass each of the following
windows, one by one - but
not in their present order, of
course. This is a maze from
Using the various vantage
points and interior relation-
ships as clues, see if you can
determine the order of the
LAST WEEK'S ANSWER:
3) Berlin-Potsdamer Platz
5) Hamburg-St. Paul
6) Budapest-Deak Ferenc Ter
12) Madrid-Plaza de Castilla
13) Washington-Foggy Bottom
14) Mexico City-Hidalgo
15) Buenos Aires-Avenida La Plata
16) San Francisco-Embarcadero
21) Leningrad-Nevski Prospeckt
22) Moscow-Gorky Park Kultury
14) New York-Bleecker Street
25) Chicago-Wacker Drive
The following people answered last week's
Send your completed puzzle to the
Michigan Daily, 420 Maynard, Ann Ar-
bor, MI, 48109 by Wednesday of next
week. One person will be selected at
Random from the correct entries to win
a free Michigan Daily T-shirt.
Fed up with these crazy puzzles?
Would you like to get even with Don
Rubin and win $10 to boot? Then
send your original ideas for The
Puzzle to The Michigan Daily, 420
Maynard St., Ann Arbor, 48109.
All entries will become the property
of United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
(You only win the big bucks if we
use your puzzle idea.)
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Writer eontradicts Allen's story
WASHINGTON (AP)- National security adviser
Richard Allen acknowledged for the first time
yesterday that he received two watches from a
Japanese journalist, but described them as "a per-
sonal gift for my wife from a friend of many years'
Journalist Fuyuko Kamisaka, who has said she
also gave Allen $1,000 intended for Nancy Reagan to
give to charity, told The Associated Press one of the
watches was given Jan. 16, before President
Reagan's inauguration, and the other Jan. 22, two
ALLEN, IN HIS latest written response to
questions presented him by the White House press of-
fice, said both watches "were received prior to Jan.
20, 1981," when Reagan was inaugurated and Allen
became national security adviser.
White House officials generally are prohibited from
accepting gifts worth more than $100. The watches
were valued at about $165 each.
"Had the personal gifts been given after Jan. 20,
which is not the case," Allen said yesterday, White
House regulations do not apply to "gifts from friends
when the circumstances make it clear that the per-
'Allen should give a press con-
ference-to clear us of everything-
once and for all.'
sonal relationship is the motivating factor."
THE CONTRADICTIONS in the accounts by the
journalist, who was grateful to Allen for arranging a
Jan. 21 interview with the first -lady, and by Allen
were the latest in a series of discrepancies that raise
new questions about the credibility of one of Reagan's
Kamisaka told the Associated Press yesterday that
she was unhappy over Allen's failure to donate the
money to charity as intended and that Allen should
hold a news conference to clear up questions.
"I wrote in the article that the money would be the
first contribution to Mrs. Reagan's charity program,
and as a writer, I owe a responsibility to the readers
for what I wrote,"' said Miss Kamisaka, whose Jan. 21
interview with Mrs. Reagan was published in March
by Shufu-no-tomo-Housewife's Friend.
"THE WHOLE affair is an internal affair of the
White House, and they should not entangle innocent
magazine publishers and writers who have nothing to
do with U.S. domestic politics," said Miss Kamisaka,
a noted critic and free-lance writer.
"Actually, we have nothing to do with it. Allen
should give a press conference-to clear us of
Severything-once and for all."
The $1,000 honorarium received by Allen is under
investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. A 1977
law prohibits U.S. officials from keeping gifts worth
more than $100, with a penalty of a fine of up to
Miss Kamisaka said she was unaware that the
$1,000 had not been forwarded to charity until
Japanese police questioned her in October about her
contact with Allen. The affair surfaced Nov. 13 when
a Tokyo newspaper disclosed that the Justice Depar-
tment had asked Japanese police to help in an in-
vestigation of a "high" White House official.
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* Economists differ over forecasts
(Continued from Page 1)
These models can serve two pur-
poses. "One is its use as providing what
you might call unconditional forecasts,
of the sort: 'Our best guess is that the
GNP for the next year would be such
and such,' said Neil Wallace,
professor of economics at the Univer-
sity of Minnesota.
"THE OTHER is to make conditional
forecasts of the sort that 'If we raise
taxes such and such, GNP will go up
such and such,' " he said. There is
currently a substantial body of
literature criticizing models for the
second type of forecast.
The major problem with that use,
according to Thomas Sargent, a Har-
vard economics professor, is that it
ACCORDING TO Shapiro, however,
all forecasts are conditional-even
those called unconditional by Wallace
- if only in that they assume away
major, or unforeseeable policy changes
or disaster. The issue in evaluating a
model's usefulness is how often such
critical changes occur.
An added twist this year, said
Sargent, is that the Reagan ad-
ministration has made "all kinds of
changes in policy, unprecedented in
But Shapiro said the government's
departure from past policies has been
overexaggerated. "If you look at the
Kennedy program in the early '60s, itis
very similar," he said. "There are dif-
ferences, but I'd stop short of saying
this is a revolutionary change."
Overall, the economists agreed, the
models can be useful. "On the whole,
although they make a lot of errors, they
very much improve our capability (in
forecasting)," Shapiro said.
And will the 1982 prediction be ac-
curate? "I think modesty is ap-
propriate in this case," he said.
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