Page 4-Sunday, January 20, 1980-The Michigan Daily
Nit MYear ofditanria Fredom
Ninety Years of Editorial Freedom
Iowa is really a big game
Vol. XC, No. 90
News Phone: 764-0552
Edited and managed by students at the University of Michigan
Back the labor movement
C ONGRATULATIONS are in order
for the sponsors of this weekend's
national labor conference held at the
Michigan Theatre and various other
The Students for Employment and
Economic Democracy (SEED),
organizers of the two-day event, in-
vited a number of prominent labor of-
ficials and activists and scheduled 18
workshops on many facets of the labor
movement in America. More than one
thousand participants from all around
the country took part in this landmark
,One of the important issues
discussed at the labor conference was
the problem of plant shutdowns.
Americans are discovering that the
repercussions resulting from plant
relocations or shutdowns are not
merely local, but national in scope.
And, recently the problen has been
creeping toward Ann Arbor: first the
Youngstown, Ohio steel mills, then the
auto manufacturing plants around
Detroit, and finally Sycor, Inc., right
here at home.
Members of the labor movement
strongly favor legislation to prevent
plant shutdowns whenever possible
Specifically, labor supports twdi
similar bills currently in Congress,
both sponsored by Michigan
legislators. Rep. William Ford and
Sen. Donald Riegle, both Democrats,
have introduced the National Em-
ployment Priorities Act in both the
House and Senate and labor union
members have been urged to support
The bill addresses many of the con-
cerns aired by workers and cities af-
fected by plant closings. It would
require business to give notice far in
advance of any shutdowns; it would
mandate investigations by the
Secretary of Labor of any business
contemplating a plant closing to
determine the necessity of the shut-
down; it would provide a federal
assistance to both displaced employees
and corporations needing funds to
prevent plant closings.
Such goals are admirable, and
deserve serious consideration by the
Congress. Many have forecast that the
bills cannot possibly pass because they
restrict business and the free market
system to an unhealthy degree. It may
indeed be true that creation of even
more restrictions on the market and
corporations is undesirable, but the
alternatives-accelerating plant shut-
downs, corporate flight to other coun-
tries where labor is cheaper, and crip-
pling damage to our economy-are
The winners could be losers. The losers
could be winners. Confusion sets in because
no one really understand how to keep score in
this new game of "perception politics."
It all depends on who one believes: the
media veterans or the candidates themselves.
NOW THAT IOWA has replaced New Ham-
pshire as the nation's first true measure of
presidential timber, this small midwestern
state's party caucuses tomorrow have sud-
denly emerged as a do-or-die situation for
many candidates. They can't afford to lose; a
big loss could put their bids out of orbit.
No question, the press is responsible for this
tense atmosphere. Ever since the late sixties
when the media created Eugene McCarthy
and destroyed LBJ, its power has been im-
mense. The most solid-and shocking-case
of media-imposed destruction of a candidate
was, of course, the quick political death of
Sen. Edmund Muskie in 1972. Muskie," an
acknowledged front-runner, was supposed to
whip the other hopefuls in that year's
presidential race, but scored a mediocre vic-
tory in the New Hampshire primary. His
small victory margin was interpreted by the
press as a defeat, a symbol of Muskie's
vulnerability. After that verdict, he never had
Finally, the press played its most influen-
tial role in the 1976 drama of "The Making of
Jimmy Carter." From unknown ex-governor
of a southern state, the media made him into
the political success story of the last few
THE FIRST CHAPTER was written in
Iowa, when Carter came frofi the bottom of
the pack to win the Democratic party
That demonstration of media power has
made the candidates recognize how crucial a
good or bad showing could be to their political
They decided that Athe game, of
manipulation can go two ways: they can try
to outmaneuver the press.
THE RULES ARE simple. The trick is to
predict what you actually believe is the worse
your showing could actually be. Then if you do
come out badly, you can explain to your
critics that you collected a big victory. If you
do better-which is very likely-think of the
boost that will give your campaign.
The other side of this game of prediction
warfare is to say your opponent will do bet-
ter than you think you will. Therefore, when
he falters, you can show that his campaign is
in deep trouble.
To illustrate this game, let's take a look at
some of the participants.
By Michael Arkush
GEORGE BUSH. Of all the candidates,
Bush seems to have learned the most from
Carter's winning strategy in 1976. His
organization is the best here, and he's picked
up some solid endorsement from state
Republicans. A recent ABC-TV news poll
placed him running neck and neck with the
party's patriarch, Ronald Reagan.
But Bush knows how to play the game; he's
not taking anything for granted.
Asked what his prediction for the caucuses
was, Bush replied "I don't make one. I hope to
do better than is expected of me, and thus I
don't want to be in the business of increasing
expectation. We've worked hard and others
are going around saying Bush will win-some
mean it and some don't."
ALTHOUGH REAGAN has said little here,
his campaign strategists predict victory but
refuse to say by how much.
Perhaps the most intriguing and shrewdest
strategy is being waged by John Connally. His
actions and his words don't seem to mix
properly. He says he's concentrating on
Florida and other states and concedes defeat
in Iowa. And therefore he has decided to
spend very little time campaigning here. But
some wonder if his sudden 36-hour non-stop
blitz through the state is his idea of just a little
Wonder what he'll do when he decides to go
the Massachusetts senator. Privately, some*
of Kennedy's workers think he may win'..
tomorrow, but they're not telling the press.
For if he were to lose after an optimistic
prediction, the defeat would loom that much
The President, who has brought in 40 White
House staff workers for a final push for vie-
tory, is expected-to win handily, but his staff
in Des Moines cautiously predicts a close
So don't be alarmed if the media and the
candidate have conflicting interpretations.,
And don't be confused if a win is actually a.,
loss, a loss a win.
Iowa is important-it all depends on how.
you play the game.
Daily Editorial Director Michael
A rkush is in Iowa covering the caucuses.
Justice in the cat killing
T HE FIVE former fraternity
brothers who allegedly tortured
and killed their house cat pleaded no
contest to the crime on Thursday in
District Court. The students will be
sentenced next month either to pay a
small fine or give up some free time for
community service work. While it may
appear that the five alleged killers are
getting off easy for what certainly was
a vicious and premeditated act, it 'is
about time that the community moved
along to other concerns. It is best that
the issue is resolved.
The Alpha Delta Phi members could
have been charged with a felony, for
which the punishment might have been
considerably more severe. But if any
one viewed the proceedings as the frat
boys went about their cruel business,
that person would not come forward to,
testify. The prosecutor had little choice
but to offer the defendents the oppor-
tunity to plead no contest to a lesser
The behavior of the public had a
positive effect too. Often, crimes of this
nature are punished outside the cour-
troom by harassment and ridicule.
While some instances of vengeful
behavior occurred-there seeined to
be "Burn Frats, Not Cats" signs
everywhere - most of the pressure
was exerted toward prosecution of the,
five in the court system. Those who in-
sisted that other measures be taken got
some satisfaction anyway, as the
students were ousted from their
fraternity and suffered the humiliation
of having their names published.
While no one equates killing animals
with killing humans, the mentality
evidenced by the destruction of a
defenseless creature is frightening.
The suggestion some students make
that all fraternity members possess
this mentality is absurd, but the city is
to be lauded for bringing those who do
Russians in Kabul
In recent weeks journalists and
politicians have argued that the
Soviet Union may have stumbled
into its own Vietnam by invading
Afghanistan. Some similarities
do exist between the U.S. in-
volvement in Indochina and the
Soviet involvement in
Afghanistan, but there are some
profound differences that leave
little doubt about the inevitability
of a Soviet victory, in contrast to
the result of the Vietnam War.
By Lorenzo P. Benet
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The similarities begin with the
fact that Afghanistan's terrain,
like Vietnam's, lends itself to
guerilla warfare, a technique of
fighting employed both by the 1
Afghan rebels and the Vietcong.
Furthermore, the Afghan rebels
may be using the neighboring 1
countries like China, Pakistan,
and Iran as supply routes and 1
watering holes for their weary 1
fighters in much the same way
as the Vietcong used Cambodia
and Laos. Finally,
Afghanistan-like North Vietnam
10 years ago-is pitted against a
superpower that could eliminate
its enemy with nuclear weapons
at a moment's notice.
however, end there. The Afghan
rebels are not being supplied by a
major power. Their weapons
consist of rocks, swords, 19th cen-
tury rifles, and homemade
grenades. Some modern weapons
have been provided by insurgent
Afghan soldiers who have access1
to Soviet arms, and others have
been captured in raids on Soviet
camps. ,lut needless to say, the
rebels have a tough time com-
peting with Soviet tanks, helicop-
ters, and MIG fighters. The Viet-
namese, on the other hand, were
supplied with billions of dollars
worth of arms and ammunition
by the Soviets and the Chinese.
The Soviet Union has the ad-
vantage of sitting on the Afghan
border, facilitating the transport
of troops, supplies, and armor in-
to Afghanistan. Furthermore, in
a period of three weeks, the
Soviets have sent more than
100,000 troops into Afghanistan,
quite different from the U.S: tac-
tic of gradual escalation, which
not only allowed the Vietcong to
mobilize their forces, but also
hindered what little chance we
might have had of winning the
war. The Soviets, moreover, are
fighting a disorganized group of
accepted that Lyndon Johnson
withdrew from the 1968 presiden-
tial election because of the
public's dissatisfaction with his
handling of the Vietnam war.
A Soviet victory in Afghanistan
then, is, to be expected, not'
because the Soviets aresuperior
in terms of military strength, but
because the Soviets have
technical, geographical and
political advantages the U.S.
never had, and in some cases,
never will have.
ticipated, we should be in a
position to supple each country
with arms and ammunition.
The U.S. should also accept
the invitations from Kenya,
Somalia, Egypt, Oman, and
Israel to establish Mideast bases
that would, put the U.S. in a
position to act militarily if the
Persian Gulf or areas around the
Indian Ocean were threatened by
a certain country known for its
expansionist tendencies. The U.S. R
presence would serve as a
deterrent to hostile actions, as,.
our presence in South Korea ser-
ves as a deterrent to its unpredic-
'The key question confronting the U. S.
government is whether or not it should at-
tempt to turn the Afghanistan war into the
Soviet Union's Vietnam.'
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THE KEY question confronting
the U.S. government is whether
or not it should turn the
Afghanistan war into the Soviet
Union's Vietnam. Obviously,
there are some things we can't
change, such as the location of
each country. However, the U.S.
can initiate a well-coordinated
political effort to portray and
publicize the Afghan rebels as a
national liberation movement.
Time Magazine reported that
even without such prompting, an-
ti-Soviet demonstrations broke
out last week in Turkey, India,
the Sudan, Indonesia, Iran, and
the U.S. A number of experts
have also suggested that the U.S.
could supply the Afghan rebels
with a steady stream of arms and
ammunition through a third par-
ty channels, e.g., China and
Pakistan. This action would be
most costly to the Soviets.
The U.S. should also continue to
expand and improve its military
and diplomatic ties with China
table neighbor, North Korea.
AT PRESENT the U.S. has:
only one military installation ink
the Indian Ocean, an air strip onw
the tiny island of Diego Garcia,.@
about 1000 miles off -the coast of*
India. The U.S. could go one step.
further by developing a Middle.
Eastern Special Defense Force:
consisting of soldiers from coun-
tries that have vital interests in-
that area. The force would be.
prepared to counter an.
aggressive action directed:
toward the Persian gulf area. -
The public must not be misled'.
into thinking that the Soviets are@
biting off more than they can.
chew, but at the same time we"
must understand that there is a:
multitude of options to counter
the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan short of going to
war. President Carter has made*
a good start by halting grain ex
ports to the Soviet Union,
pressuring for an Olympic'
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