Pag ightyla
THE SUMMER DALY7
Tuesday, July 17, 197_ '
Vietnamese battlefield report
SAIGON - The Vietnam battle-
field is taking final, predictable
shape. War has raged across it
for three decades: and troops
from six foreign nations have
ganibled iith death here.
The war is still on. The two
cease-fire agreements signed in
January and Jane if this year
have only slowed it down tong
enough for the United States to
pull out entirely.
THE FRENCH FOREIGN Le_
gion left 18 years earlier. The
Australians, the New Zealanders,
the Thais, and the South Koreans
left more recently but without a
backward glance or commitment.
On the battlefield now, alone
for the first time, are the Viet-
namese. And also for the f i r s t
time in three decades it is 'pos-
sible to deduce the probable out-
come on the battlefield if a poli-
tical solution is delayed, and the
war continues.
Here is how the battlefield looks
to both sides:
THE SOUTH VIETNAMESE.
The United States came to Viet-
nam to win the war, but when
it became too costly in men and
money, tactics were changed and
the concept of "Vietnamization"
was introduced. The idea was to
build the Saigon army into a
Copy of the American one, as far
1s weaponry was concerned. The
American strategy remained the
snme until the cease-fire agree-
ment in January: Win the -War.
His "Vietn'smiz-stion" worked?
The answer has to be no. First
of all, Saigon has had to yield
an enormous part of the coun-
try to the Commnist side, as
much as 25 per cent according to
suime estimates. This lost ter-
rain includes the sites of some
of the most famous American
battles - the la Drang Valley,
Dak To, Khe Sanh, War Zone C.
SECONDLY, "Vietnamization"
never did fill the holes left by
the departing allied troops. "I
have not been able to fill up the
vacuum left when the S o u t h
Koreans went home," said t h e
chief of coastal Khanh Hoa Pro-
vince, Col. Ly Ba Pham. The
3rd U.S. Marine Division held
Quang Tri Province until t h e
Americans went home. N o w
yellow-star Communist flags dot
the hillsides there.
The same flags fly in Kontum
Province, Loc Ninh, and the other
"holes" left behind when the al-
lies went home.
Vietnamization" never did
work in weaponry, either. Saigon
has one of the world's biggest air
forces, but few planes that can
do aerial combat with the Hanoi
government's MIG21s.
WHAT ABOUT the combat sold-
iers? Last year the Saigon forces
held Kontum and An Loc despite
major Communist attacks, a n d
fought back into Quang Tri City.
But this was with the help of the
whole U.S. Air Force arsenal.
The South Vietnamese sold-
ier has grown used to attacking
with massive air support. Th e
Communist soldier has grown
used to fighting under those
American bombs.
Take away American planes
and you have a much stronger
Hanoi soldier and a much weaker
Saigon one.
HERE IS HOW THE Commun-
ist side views the situation.
The North Vietnamese are link-
ing up territory captured inside
South Vietnam via a road net-
work estimated at 500 miles long.
Truck traffic indicates a buildup
of military equipment as mas-
sive as that which pteceeded the
major Communist offensive of
last year.
Free from American bombing
for the first time since 1965, the
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THE AMERICAN BOMBS~that levelled this village are no longer a factor in determining the
outcome of fighting in South Vietnam.
Communist side is laying in sur-
face to air missiles around
lengthened airstripes at K h e
Sanh and the Asahau Valley, and
building small towns. .
THE OFFENSIVE last y e a r
brought the Communist armies to
within touching distance of the
major population centers. Heavy
guns are within range of Kontum
City, Quang Tri and Hue, and
possibly Da Nang. The environs
of Saigon are within a day's
march of Communist regiments
in War Zones C and D.
The whole Cambodian border
along the populous Mekong Delta
is in the hands of Communist
troops, giving easy access to the
population.
What is likely to happen? What
is the shape of the future?
THE HOPE WAS that the cease-
fire agreements would put an end
to the fighting this year, that
zones of control could be deter-
mined, and that an orderly trans-
ition would be made to a political
settlement.
At best the Communist side
would like participation in a
coalition government such as that
in Laos; at worst, recognition by
the Saigon government, and of-
ficial acknowledgement of Com-
munist control over occupied ter-
ritory.
The Communist side can be ex-
pected to use military pressure
to achieve any, or all, of its poli-
tical objectives. It has all the
options; Saigon can only defend.
ONE COMMUNIST option is the
renewal of the guerrilla war.
The guerrilla "people's war" or-
ganized by the Viet Cong almost
overwhelmed the government in
1965. That is what brought Amer-
ican troops in.
The Viet Cong were nearly put
out of business because the entry
of American troops into the war
tipped the balance against them.
North Vietnam sent down not
only infantry divisions to fight
the Americans, but thousands of
replacements for dead V i e t
Cong guerrillas.
One reason for the decline of
the Viet Cong was that the Saigon
government extended its control
over the population and gave
every farmer a gun and told him
to point it at the Viet Cong.
THAT WAS ALL very well
while the government's control in
the countryside was firm. Now
control is weaker because of the
near-proximity of Communist
troops. Already in Chuong Thien
Province in the Mekong Delta
guerrillas are being recruited
from all the hamlets, according
to a defector. In effect the Com-
munists are now telling the farm-
ers to point their gtns at the
government.
How effective can this guerrilla
regeneration be? Knowledgeable
Americans point out that while
the South Vietnamese regular
army is loyal to Saigon, the lo-
cal militiamen whe number in the
hundreds of thousands, are loyal
to the hamlets where they were
born. Some fought for the Viet
Cong before the government in
Saigon extended its control in the
late 1960s. Presumably +hey could
fight for the VC again if govern-
ment control erodes.
Another Communst option is
this, the long-term indoctrination
of selected South Vietnamese who
-are taken North. Such people re-
turning to South Vietnam in the
late 1950ycreated the Viei Cong
insurgency.
NOW FROM every province in
the country there have been re-
ports of young people fram 12 to
18 years of age, either kidnaped
or willingly leaving home, going
North. In Binh Thuan on the
coast 90 young persons were tak-
en in April and May.
The Communist side is alreadev
repopulating Quang ri with
some of the more than 20,000 pe(i-
ple it took North after overrun-
ning the province in 'he 1972 of-
fensive.
There is a third option: Ano-
ther full-scale Communist offen-
sive, launched from scure base
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Konturn, Pleiku, Binh Dinh Pro-
vince, Hue and selected Mekong
Delta targets. While anyttoiig in
happen in Vietnam and often'
does, knowledgeable Americans
and Vietnamese see the Cnmmun-
ists using a combination of ell
their options.
FIRSTLY, THEY will continue
to strengthen their territory with
roadbuilding and resettlement.
They will attempt to build the
Viet Cong back into a powerful
military force. And they can
launch the occasional "mini of-
fensive" that will help demoralize
the Saigon army and grab more
terrain.
If all this were to fail, then
the Communists coud take t h e
long-term viewpoint, methodically
building up a reinvigorated cadre
from those Southerners now be-
ing taken North, and sending
them down South some day to
start the whole thing over again.
This last possibility - failure-
seems the most unlikely. "The
main purpose of the North Viet-
namese these past few years has
been to oust the foreigner," said
Khanh Hoa Province Chief Col.
Pham. "Now they have us all
alone."
HOW MIGHT AMERICA fit in-
to this somber future? Less and
less as the days go by, it seems.
Apparent American disinterest
in the course of the war effort
has led to a breakoff in the close
U.S. adviser relationships t h at
were built up over a decade.
The Saigon high command has
retreated into secrecy, and t h e
few American military men left
are finding it near impossible to
maintainsan accurate accouting
of what is going on in the field.
With U.S. military advisers
completely out of the countryside
the American officers and civil-
ians attached to the small Amer-
ican defense establishment in Sai-
gon often have to resort to wak-
ing up Vietnamese generals from
their siestas, or coralling them
during tennis matches, to plead
for information about what big
actions are going on.
THIS SUDDEN huge informa-
tion gap could be disastrous in
the event of another major Com-
munist offensive. U.S. officials
would have great difficulty in
judging the accuracy of Vietnam-
ese reports and the United States
no longer has intelligence sources
of its, own to verify targets and
Communist troop movements.
PETERs AIENETT is the As-
sociated Press' chief corres-
pondent in Vietnam, tIe has
won a Pulitzer Prize fur his
coverage of the sear,
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