100%

Scanned image of the page. Keyboard directions: use + to zoom in, - to zoom out, arrow keys to pan inside the viewer.

Page Options

Download this Issue

Share

Something wrong?

Something wrong with this page? Report problem.

Rights / Permissions

This collection, digitized in collaboration with the Michigan Daily and the Board for Student Publications, contains materials that are protected by copyright law. Access to these materials is provided for non-profit educational and research purposes. If you use an item from this collection, it is your responsibility to consider the work's copyright status and obtain any required permission.

August 10, 1979 - Image 6

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
Michigan Daily, 1979-08-10

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

Page 6-Friday, August 10, 1979-The Michigan Daily
MICHIGAN TO BE HIT HARDER THAN NATION
'U' economists forecast mild recession

(Continued from Page 1)
per cent at the end of this year, and 7.1
per cent by fourth quarter 1980.
BUT THE BASE inflation rate is
likely to remain unchanged, according
to the forecast. Large oil and food price
increases pushed the inflation rate for
consumer goods into double figures in
the first half of 1979, but more modest
price hikes in these areas should cause
the inflation figure to drift back to
around eight per cent during 1980, the
report estimates.
Hyman said a seven to eight per cent
"base" inflation rate has become
established over the years, perpetuated
by expectations of continued inflation in
that range by both business and con-
sumers. Hyman said the rate has
become firmly entrenched because
producers anticipate its continuation
when they increase prices, as do
workers when they make wage
demands. -
Hymans said a severe economic
slowdown "could smash those expec-
tations. .. but that would require a
much deeper recession than the people
would want to go through or the gover-
nment would want to engineer."
A RECESSION, defined as two con-
secutive quarters of inflation-adjusted
decline in the Gross National Product

(GNP), technically will exist if the
GNP falls again this quarter, as expec-
ted.
"But ... the length and severity of
the 1979 recession - as we forecast it -
will qualify it as among the mildest of
any recessions of recent record," the
report says. "Indeed, it would be more
informative to speak of 1979 as an
economic slowdown that got a bit out of
hand, rather than as a true recession in
the sense of 1974-74 or 1957-58.
"The costs of recession are measured
in terms of job losses, shortened work
weeks, bankruptcies, and the like," the
forecast continues. "In relative terms,
the recession of 1979 should impose
small costs on the economic scene."
THE REPORT e ys three basic fac-
tors are helping' old the economy at a
somewhat stagitated level: high prices,
high interest rates (tight money), and
modest attempts at reducing the tax
burden on consumers.
"You have to remember that the tight
monetary policywent into effect last
Nov. 1," Porter said. "The basic
justification was to support the U.S.
dollar abroad."
She said the expected recovery in the
GNP level is likely to be aided by the
projected cancellation of the scheduled

Social Security tax increase,
moderation in both food and oil price
rises, and the predicted reduction in the
interest rate charged by the gover-
nment to financial institutions for cer-
tain loans.
THE THREE economists make
predictions several times each year
using the "Michigan model", a com-
puterized system using both economic
and statistical analysis. Crucial
statistics are fed into the complex
model - which is constantly being
revised - in order to arrive at the
economic forecasts.
Hymans, chairman of the economics
department, said the University model
is "one of a half-dozen in the country

that involves a long reck - !)f continual
forecasts."
He said other current rredictions
vary from forecasts of "long and hard
recession to almost no recession."
THE MICHIGAN model, like others,
has proven to be accurate under some
circumstances and somewhat off-base
in others, Hymans said.
Hymans and Porter, who both work
full-time in the economics department,
compiled the report with Harold
Shapiro, a former chairman of the
department. Shapiro, who currently is
University vice-president for academic
affairs, was selected by the University
Board of Regents to become the 10th
University presidentJan.1,1980.

2 contenders named
for 'U' presidency

(Continued from Page U
STUDENT COMMITTEE member
Rosenberg said earlier this week she
knew O'Neil's name has been among
the 50 placed on a narrowed down list,
but was uncertain of his later status..
Rosenberg left the committee in April.
O'Neil has been vactioning in
Michigan with his family since mid-
July and was unavailable for comment.
He returned briefly to the Bloomington
campus at the end of last month to at-
tend a trustees' meeting.
Sources in O'Neil's office and IU
students said several months ago
O'Neil was interested in the University
post. Last year he was offered several
presidencies at smaller institutions. In
an article published during April in the
Indiana Daily Student, the IU student
newspaper, O'Neil said he would not be
vice-president at IU much longer.
"IT WOULDN'T be good for the
university," he said in the article. "In
every institution there needs to be a
freshness of approach."
Staff members of the Daily Student

say O'Neil has little chance for advan-
cement at IU because its president,
John Ryan, has been there only a few
years.
University Regents and search com-
mittee members who were contacted
refused to comment on O'Neil's can-
didacy.
O'NEIL RECEIVED his bachelor
and law degrees from Harvard. While
he was finishing his law degree, he was
director of a speech program at Tufts
University in Medford, Mass. He also
has taught history at Harvard, speech
at San Francisco State College, and law
at the University of California at
Berkeley. He served as a law clerk for
Supreme Court Justice William Bren-
nan for two years.
r He also held administrative posts at
the State University of New York at
Buffalo and the University of Cincinnati
for seven years before assuming the
Bloomington position. O'Neil teaches
law at IU, in additon to his vice-
presidential duties.

CINEMA I
PRESENTS
CIASSIC SEXCOMEDIES NIGHT
NOTHING SACRED
WILLIAM WELLMAN, 1937
The screwiest-of-them-all screwball comedy. CAROLE LOMBARD feigns
being exposed to radium poisoning (shades of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania!),
releases this news to the press, and in her "last few weeks of life" blossoms
from small-town nobody to the "sweetheart" of New York. Reporter FREDERICK
MARCH is sent to fetch her from Vermont-when he arrives, the natives
are surly, children stone him, and a small boy darts out from behind a picket
fence and bites him in the leg. Hilarious. With WALTER CONNOLLY, CHARLES
WINNIGER. (75 min.) 7:00 & 10:30
NINOTCHKA
ERNEST LUBITSCH, 1939
GARBO Laughs! And who but Lubtsch could take the tragic figure of Garbo
and create a clossic comedy around her. in this blithe satire, Garbo plays a
severe. intellectural, hard-headed Soviet commissar who is sent to Paris to
supervise a trio of bumbling Russian agents. But under the seductive minis-
trations of the city of love, the ascetic Comrade melts into an affair with
Parisian charmer, MELVYN DOUGLAS With a corrosive memorable script by
Charles Brackett, Billy Wilder and Walter Reisch. "Your cornea is terrific."
(0 min.) 8:30 only.
AUD A, ANGELL HALL
Single Feature $1.50, Double $2.50
WFSIPPORT PROJECTIONISTS LOCAL 395

SAMUELZ ARKOFFrPRESENTs
A PROPESsIONA1rFILMS. INCRESEsNTATION
JAMES BROLIN, MARGOT KIDDER and ROD STEIGER
"THE AMITYVILLE HORROR" unce
Also Starring MURRAY HAMILTON Music by LALO SCHIFRIN (R)
Executive in Chaoge f Pmductio JERE HENSHAW
HELD OVER-3rd WEEK
Mon-Tue.-Wed.-Thur. 7:25-9:25
Sat.-Sun.-Wed.

Back to Top

© 2021 Regents of the University of Michigan