Return of 'normal' climate threatens famine By JAMES SPAULDING Pacific News Service' DESPITE THIS WINTER'S record low tempera- tures and heavy snowfalls, climatologists are talking less about the coming of a new ice age and more about the fact that weather con- ditions are returning to normal. And that, they say, spells trouble. - Normal weather, climatologists agree, means unseasonable cold spells, frequent droughts inter- spersed with floods, hurricanes, tornados and er- ratic rainfall - conditions that threaten massive crop failures, famines and possibly war. For several years weather scientists have been warning that the bounteous grain harvests of the 1460s, which resulted from particularly favorable weather in North America, could not go on for- ever. Such consistently favorable conditions, they said, were highly abnormal. Their anxiety does not arise because the re- turn to normalcy threatens mass hunger in the developed, grain producing nations. They worry more about the billions of people in the Third World who are unable to feed themselves or buy grain on the world market. The risk is acute, demographers say, because world food production capacity has already been strained by the doubling of the earth's popula- tion to four billion in the last 30 years. James Spaulding, a former science editor for The Milwaukee Journal, now teaches journalism at the University of California-Berkeley. Stephen Schneider, deputy director of the Cli- mate Project at the National Center for Atmospher- ic Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., says that a reduction of just one per cent in the earth's present food production capacity could mean death by starvation for 40 million people. Already, the Worldwatch Institute has reported that two-fifths of the slowdown in world popula- tion growth from 1970-75 resulted from starvation and malnutrition, mostly in the poorest nations. DESPITE THE EXTREME POVERTY in many of these countries, some are among the 35 na- tions that the prestigious Stockholm International Peace Research Institute recently predicted would be capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons by 1985. The potential for famine followed by political unrest, terrorism or nuclear blackmail in the de- veloping nations has recently prompted govern- ment agencies, including the Defense Science Board and the CIA, to focus on the dangers. A recent report issued by the International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study in Bonn, Germany, concludes that a longterm cool- ing trend has set in and that global climate con- ditions will consequently become more variable; or "normal." "This climatic change," said the report, "poses a threat to the people of the world." Predicting "major crop failures almost certainly within the decade," the scientists warned that the problem "can be ignored only at the risk of great suffer- ing and mass starvation." Reid Bryson, a University of Wisconsin mete- orologist, is among the leading proponents of the theory that the Northern Hemisphere has entered a cooling period, bringing more variable weather. He contends that since the average tempera- tures began descending in the 1940s, the grow- ing season in England has shrunk by two weeks, droughts have begun to increase in northwestern India, African and Japanese monsoon rains have retreated toward the Equator and midsummer frosts have returned to the midwestern U.S. Bryson says his studies show that the rise and fall of civilizations as far back as 1900 B.C. cor- respond with the advance and retreat of monsoon rains in regions where rainfall is vital for grow- ing rice. He says that a similar cooling period some time around 1200 A.D. brought a 200-year drought to what is now the grain belt of the Midwest. It drastically altered the culture of the indigenous Indians who lived there, according to archeologi- cal evidence. "So clearly," says Bryson, "200 years of drought in the 'Breadbasket' of North America is possi- ble." EVEN THOSE WHO DISAGREE with Bryson admit that climate poses an acute +hreat to the world's precarious food balance, and that +he favorable weather of the past 20 years is un- likely to continue. Despite the consensus among climatologists, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) con- tends that agricultural technology and the so-called Green Revolution (more productive hybrid grains) will keep food production apace with world popu- lation growth for at least 25 years. . Consequently, the U.S. government has allowed the virtual disappearance in the last decade of worldwide grain reserves. Lester Brown, presi- dent of the Worldwatch Institute, contends that worldwide food supply at any given time is now down to just 30 days. Scientists such as Louis Thompson, dean of agriculture at Iowa State University at Ames,be- lieve the USDA's reliance on technology is a dan- gerous fallacy. Thompson's longterm studies show that since the 1950s, increased crop production in the corn belt was more the result of favorable weather than of better technology. A recent report by the U.S. Office of Technologi- -cal Assessment took the USDA, to task for fail- ing to take climate variability ,,into account in forecasting food production. It said that with world food supplies dangerously low, the government lacks an intelligence system capable of predicting the consequences of unexpected droughts, floods or other adverse conditions. The report noted that despite the best com- puter technology and access to weather satellites, the U.S. failed to learn of the Soviet wheat crop failure in 1972 when it sold wheat to the Russians at bargain prices. At the same time, said the report, the U.S. government received no warning when world food production recently declined for the first time In many years - with food demand rising sharply. THE CONCERN OVER the climate-food supply problem has prompted a one-year study by meteorologists and agricultural economists at the National Defense University-.Their aim is to reach a consensus about what's happening to the climate and to improve techniques for predicting crop production. Last year the National Academy of Sciences recommended a national commitment to climate research with spending to rise from $18 million a year to $67 million by 1980. Meanwhile, Congress is expected -to set hear- ings on a National Climate Research Act in the next session. In the absence of' concerted government ac- ion, some scientists have opted to go public" with their warnings. One of the most persuasive has been Stephen Schneider of the NCAR in Boulder. In his recently published book, The Genesis Strategy - Climate and Global Survival, Schneider argues that if the earth's population continues to grow and the less developed countries demand to use energy at the rate developed countries do, the man-made waste heat may drastically affect the global climate. Such effects as higher temperatures and increased down-wind rains are already com- mon in and around large industrial cities. Schneider urges developed countries to sloop down their use of energy while developing coun- tries catch up, using alternative energy systems. He says developing countries must also limit their population growth. Until this occurs, he says, governments should heed climatologists and establish a world food bank to stave off climate-induced famine and turmoil. li t itan at Eighty-Seven Years of Editorial Freedom 420 Maynard St., Ann Arbor, Ml 48109 Friday, January 14, 1977 News Phone: 764-0552 Edited and managed by students at the University of Michigan UHC should have voted to end lettuce boycott INSIDE AFRICA: Krugerrand sales stir protest THE UNIVERSITY Housing Council (UHC) recently faced a tough decision on whether to continue the dorm lettuce boycott in support of California farm workers. UHC voted to continue the lettuce ban for an- other term, despite a referendum which went two-to-one for ending the boycott. We think they committed a grave error In ignoring the mandate. The United Farm Workers Union (UFW), under the leadership of Ce- sar Chavez, has carried out an ardu-; ous, decade-long struggle for ade- quate pay and safe, decent working conditions for agricultural laborers. The UFW has tackled the most nean- derthal, unreconstructed segment of American business. At last, victory seems near, as more and more Calif- ornia growers sign contracts with the UFW., For four years, University dorms have supported the UFW by boycot- ting non-union lettuce. Each term, the boycott went before dorm resi- dents for a vote. Until last Novem- ber, the boycott always won, although by smaller margins in recent years. Last November, the boycott wenlt down to defeat by over two-to-one. What went wrong? More than 3,000 dorm residents gave up their dinners to raise money for the UFW. Yet, two weeks later, only 400 people bothered to continue 'the dorm non-union lettuce ban. , The blame for this failure lies with those UFW sympathizers who didn't get out and vote. And it lies with the UFW Support' Committee for not getting its people to the polls. The Daily also shares the blame.- We failed to adequately publicize the referendum and make our support for the boycott well-enough known. NONETHELESS, the vote must be respected. Some members of the UHC argue that people weren't voting against the UFW, but rather voting for head letture.. However, as one dissenting member of the Council re- marked,;it doesn't matter why stu- dents voted as they did - that's up to them. Their will should have been honored. It is doubtful whether the farm. workers' cause will benefit from a boycott carried out against'the will of the participants. In fact, continu- ing the lettuce ban under present circumstances may create more an- tagonism and ill will toward the UFW on campus than any benefit derived3 from it. This decision will probably make it difficult, if not impossible, to ever pass a boycott support vote in the dorms. The Daily urges the UHC to re- consider its action.; Recent reports that the UFW is considering calling off the boycott nationally may make this easier. If the national boycott continues, however, the best move would be to terminate the boycott now, but sched- ule an early revote. Then, all of us who believe strong- ly that the UFW deserves our support should see that the word gets out- and the people get out and vote. TODAY'S STAFF: News: Jeff Ristine, Bill Turque, Mike Norton, George Lobsenz, Lani Jor- don, Ann Marie Schiavi, Bob Rosen- baum, Ken Chotiner, David Good- man, Robb Holmes Editorial Page: Tom Stevens, Rob Mea- chum, David Goodman Arts Page: Lois Josimovich Photo Technician: Andy Freeberg By The Pacific News Service ROOMING U.S. SALES of Kru- gerrands, the gold coins whose sale provided a vital 14.7 per cent of South Africa's export earnings in 1975, have spurred demonstrations by opponents of apartheid. Protesters have pic- keted a Manhattan department store selling Krugerrands, stag- ed a rally in San Francisco and convinced the Denver city coun- cil to urge residents not to buy the coins. Krugerrand sales are crucial' in earning badly needed foreign exchange to reduce South Afri- ca's balance of payments defi- cit. They also help keep up the price of gold, its major export, by holding down the amount available in bullion form. South Africa's critics hope to turn the coin sales strategy on its head by, publicizing the fact that blacks who mine the gold Iearn less than 10 per cent what whites do, work in dangerous conditions and must live separ- ated from their families. Both the sales boom and the protests stem largely from a highly successful $4 million TV and newspaper advertising cam- paign. One Houston bank that had previously sold just a few coins handled 1,600 in the days after the ads started appearing, and sales at a San Francisco bullion dealer shot up 900 per- cent. And despite sales tax and oth- er costs that make the Kruger- rand up to 20 per cent more ex- pensive than plain gold, t h e market is so strong that -the prestigious Merrill, Lynch bro- kerage firm is now selling coins in all its offices. * * *Cm rTHE OPEC nations may face their second split in as many months when the first joint Afro-Arab summit conven- es here in January. The develop- ing African nations that have been hit hard by oil price rises are expected to seek price con- cessions from OPEC, and some observers think Saudi Araoia's recent split on pricing may fore- shadow a similar showdown over the African demands. Many of the African coun'ries have had conflicting reactions to OPEC in the past,, di'dliking high oil pricesbut strongly sup- porting the principle of higher. prices for raw material exports. While resisting requests for se- lective discounts. OP CC has pla- cated them with aid priograms like the recently launcned Inter na'ional Agriculture Develon- ment fund. * * * FEARS OF BLACK nantonilist guerrilla warfare in Souh Africa have prompted a 'cdl to arms" by the Defense Ministry and official warnings to w h i t e businessmen to take pre:;-uons agains' urban violence. A spokesperson for the De- fense Ministry said the -asponse to a call for volunteers has been "amazing." Defense chief P. W. Botha saidtthe plea for volun- teers was the only alternative to broadening enlistment to include middle-aged men. Newspapers have recently fueled fears with allegations that that African National Congress, a banned underground liberation movement, has established bas- es in neighboring Mozambhique. The reports claim that hundreds of Africans have received train- ing and thatnurses are on duty to care for the wounded. While the accuracy of the ie- CAMEL. . T11EiR. RE port is questionable, its release has clearly increased the con- cern of white South Africans and added support for the govern- ment's hard-line apartheid pol- icy. Meanwhile, Justice Minister James Kruger has issued warn- ings to businesses following the early December explosion in cne of Johannesburg's largest down- town buildings. Kruger said the bombing, which followed sever- al other incidents involving South African police and armed blacks, may indicate andattempt at urban warfare. THE RECENT conviv':on of nine black South Africans under the Terrorism Act is be- ing called one of the most im- portant legal decisions in South African history. For the f i r s t time a court has explicitly ruled that opposition to the govern- ment and its racial policies cor- stitutes terrorism - a z - i m e carrying a mandatory minimum senence of five years and a maximum of death. The seven Africans and two Indians were found guilty of con- spiring to change South Africa's anartheid system. Seven of them were also convicted of or- ganizing illegal rallies to cele- brate majority, rule in Mozam- bique. Before the verdict, S o u t h African authorities had o f t e n detained government opponents under the country's security le- gislation, only to see the courts refuse to accept the govern- ment's definition of terrorism and find them innocent. 'Many were thenre-arrestednand held without trial. Repercussions of the legal turnaround are expect- EDMXW. P WMER * * * * V/ENDALAND, one of the least populated of South Afri- ca's semi-autonomous black homelands with 400.000 inhabi- tants, has become the third ban- tustan to opt for independence from Pretoria. Patrick Mphephu, chief minister of Vendaand, said he would make a formal re- quest for independence n e x t March and that he eKne:ts South Africa to accept the request in 1978. Earlier this year Bonhu.Its- wana, the home of 800,000 Ts- wana people led by Chief Lucas Mangope, announced it p 1 a n s to seek independence from South Africa. The Transkei, largest of South Africa's bantustans, became in- dependent October 26 but is re- cognized by no foreign country except South Africa. The ban- tustan policies are opposed by many Africans in Soutn Africa, including the chief of one .I r ire- land. They contend tie bantus- tans are indenendent in name only, but ,totally denendent on South Africa economica ly .and intended mainly to draw critic- ism away from South Africz;s apartheid system. A FTER 13 YEARS of precar- ious constitutional unity, ed to be felt country. throu hout t h e the United Republic of Tanzan- ia - mainland Tanganika and the two islands of Zanzibar - is cautiously moving towards full political integration., Until now, Tanzania has been led by two separate parties, the mainland's Tanganika African National Union (TATNU) and Zanzibar's Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP). Now the two are about to merge and form the hybrid Re- volutionary Party of Tanzania. Tanzania's 54-year-old Presi- dent Julius Nyerere will almost certainly be named to heal the new party when it is officially christened Feb. 5. The merger has long been stormy and em- harassing to Nyerere. whoso po- litical philosophy of one-party democratic socialism, contrasts sharply with a 3*man Revolu- tirnary Council's absolute rule of the spice islands of Zanzibar and Pemba. At one point Zanzi- bar's first president. a burly cx- sailor named Abeid Karume, ev- en ruled that all Arab girls had to marry any African man who pronosed to them - after an Arab girl refused the advances of his son. While Tanzanians -hope the merger will eventually lead to the full political integration of 7anzibar with the mainland, Zanzibar has protectively main- tained its autonomy in economic and judicial affairs. Perspective by W. L. SC H ELL ER.... 014 A NomaE "WITH HIS INAUGURATION less than a week away, Jimmy Carter's administration, his cabinet posts in particular, have pretty much taken shape. Some of the old liberals from the sixties thought that Carter's cabinet would be the realization of their dreams. Instead Carter's choices have drawn fire from the NAACP, women's groups, Ralph Nader and others. President- elect Carter seems to have picked out his cabinet that he feels will work to solve the problems of this country, not just appease a few interest groups. Mr. Carter will have at his disposal much of what he has said that he is looking for. His cabinet contains spokespersons for both business and labor. This is best seen in his choices for Sec- retary of the Treasury and Secretary of Labor. Michael Blumen- thal is currently President of the Bendix Corp., which was named one of the five best managed companies in America by Dun's Review. Ray Marshall, the, Labor designate, is a very pro-labor Economics Professor at the University of Texas at Austin. These two men represent a very diverse scope of opinion. Carter has put a farmer at the head of the Department of Agri- culture. A top mind like Schlesinger will be welcome as the new energy czar, presumably to become Secretary of Energy after Carter consolidates the various departments. Harold Brown, an emminently qualified weapons expert and president of Cal Tech, should perform well in the Defense Department. But all is not perfect in the new administration. Carter's choice of Griffen Bell as Attorney General was at best a disappointment. Even laying aside all the furor over his civil rights record, there were better people for the job. Sup- posedly such figures as Barbara Jordan and John Doar were under consideration. Instead of keeping to his claim .that he would pick only the best people for the job, Carter gave the job to one of his old hacks. One of the most disturbing, if not potenially dangerous, trends is the increased politicization of the CIA. The director of -the CIA needs to be a man who is knowledgable in the area of intelligence ga'hering and international affairs. Theodore Sorenson and his predecessor George Bush are simply not these type of people. George Bush was a former Republican Party National Chairman and Sorenson was Kennedy's administrative assistant. A well qgtal- ified person from within the CIA would seem to have been a better choice. V0 A*T C~j~ot4 T- 'To D..SC1J IA'rg rimp wnf w+if *rM ,T" r