from more division of labor. In addition,
a. point of diminishing returns for an ex-
panding labor force may exist where the
problems of coordination, communication,
transportation and management in a
sprawling, highly specialized enterprise
outweigh its benefits.
It seems fairly safe to say that today's
American economy is not suffering to any
great degree from overpopulation. Indeed,
we might even assert that a faster-grow-
ing population would be a stimulant (re-
member, we're ignoring the more distant
future) to economic growth.
But perhaps it's time to begin question-
ing the idea that a higher Gross Nationai
Product is a cause for unqualified rejoic-
ing. Perhaps it is time to ask, not only,
how much are we producing, but what are
we producing? The GNP is a measure of
goods and services produced, but there is
no guarantee that all of these goods and
services really are doing anyone any good.
It is fairly evident that America pro-
duces many goods and performs many
services which would just as well remain
unproduced and unperformed. And we
have had to delve into motivational re-
search and spend millions of dollars on
advertising to sell ourselves all the things
we could painlessly do without. In one
writer's words, we have gone "from an
economy of need to an economy of acqui-
sition."
All this points up what William Vogt
calls "the fallacy that the GNP is a meas-
ure of value."
In terms of the direct benefit people
derive from goods and services, then, we
could slash our GNP considerably, and be
better off because we would not be wast-
ing our time producing these assorted un-
necessary things.
THIS IS RELATED to population be-
cause as long as oar population is
growing, the GNP, with all its billboards
Brazilian swamp to kill malaria-carrying
mosquitoes, or when Dr. Tom Dooley in-
oculates Asians with penicillin.
-Many other problems of American so-
ciety could be related to population
growth, but perhaps the question of the
state of the individual in a mass society
is, after all, the ultimate concern.
A widespread feeling exists that our
fate is being determined by the imperson-
al processes of the machine and the
"power elite." And, even worse, that we
ourselves are becoming machines-con-
formists, "organization men," cogs in the
wheels of an industry that exists for it-
self rather than for us, faceless noneti-
ties in "the lonely crowd."
People will be jammed closer and closer
together, and any wide-open spaces which
remain today will be distant memories.
People will have to learn to seek happi-
ness within a rigidly proscribed sphere,
for space will be at a premium. More -
limits on personal actions will be neces-
sitated by the specialized, interdependent
industrial structure which will tolerate
little disorder--a minor breakdown in one
part having possibly disastrous reper-
cussions in the whole system. (Witness
the panic of a power failure today!)
The individual will have to do his job,
efficiently and without complaint, if the
life-giving wheels are to keep turning.
Moreover, the very scarcity of consumer
goods will require careful control over
their allocation and use; there will be.
nothing to waste.
In short, if we are to accept a popula-
tion of this size as part of our future,
we had better start to revise our values
concerning the uniqueness of the indi-
vidual and personal freedom.
IT IS evident that the more people there
are, the less significant any one of us
is. As the population grows larger and
larger, the society becomes more complex;
as we specialize further and further in
Technology is the dynamic factor. Just.
as the idea of a world of three billion
people would have seemed absurd to the
ancient Greek, so a world of 300. billion
seems impossible to us; for the same rea-
son: we are unable today to conceive -of
the technology that will support such
numbers tomorrow. As long as science
continues to develop--and it moves faster
daily-there is no reason to posit any
limit to population growth.
T HERE ARE truth and fallacy in both
arguments. Each points. out one es-
sential condition for man's survival, but
each makes the mistake of ignoring the
other. Indeed, both natural resources and
the enlightened use of them by man are
essential to the survival of the race. If
either factor is taken away, catastrophe
is the inevitable result.
In 1953, Prof. Harrison Brown, then of
the University of Chicago's Institute for
Nuclear Studies, took a look at some of
our most vital resources, estimated how
long they can be expected to last, and
considered how far man's ingenuity might
go in replacing them.
Concerning food, Prof. Brown predicts
that by cultivating 1.3 billion acres of
tropical and northern soils, completely ir-
rigating 200 million acres of desert land,
and improving plant-breeding and selec-
tion techniques, and (most important)
establishing 1 billion acres of ponds
where algae are grown for human con-
sumption, the world's food production
could be 25 times what it is today.
A more difficult problem is our energy
resources. Our conventional fuels cannot
be re-planted and re-harvested year after
year as food can: they can be used only
once. Noting that our coal and oil re-
serves, which presently provide 80 per
cent of America's power, have barely been
dented so far, Prof. Brown demonstrates
that, despite this, the next century will
see us consume what is left in one vora-
could be sup
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THE GAP
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launched.
And it is
FROM ITS early days when its office was located in the School
of Music Building on Maynard St., the Society has developed
into one of the finest and most thorough concert presenters of
any American college or university. In its present office in the
Burton Memorial Tower are planned varied programs of the
highest standards. "A student who regularly attends the series
will get a background of music culture of high quality, con-
veniently, and at low prices. By attending all concerts of a series
and not just the ones that suit his fancy, a student gains a level
of aesthetic appreciation that will last him throughout his life,
It is when students leave the University that they realize that
concert series of equal repute are not available to them every-
where," Rector commented.
Economy-minded students, or those who just can't afford
tickets, may apply to be ushers. In this way they can see the
concerts for free.
"The combined series are planned, not primarily for amuse-
ment and entertainment, but rather for a sound educational
experience. They are intended to appropriately supplement, on
a worthy and dignified basis, the academic and professional re-
sources of the University in its numerous other fields, and to
'bridge the musical resources of the University with those of the
community'," Sink added.
During the course of its history over 25,000 singers have been
members of the Choral Union Chorus. Many of these have later
developed into fine performers. Evelyn Beal, who recently was
featured as a soloist in a "Messiah" presentation, is just one
example.
At the conclusion of the 1962-63 season the Society will have
presented a total of 3,391 concerts since its inception in 1879. One
can review the pictoral history of performing musicians from
that time by viewing the Charles A. Sink Collection of auto-
graphed photographs of performers who have performed under
the auspices of the Society. This extensive collection hangs in
the Society's office in the Burton Tower.
Substantial members of the University, several regents, three
University secretaries, numerous deans and other administrative
officers, as well as professional men and industrialists of the city
have served on the board of directors. These have given freely
and generously of their time and energy in developing the cultural
resources of the University and its environs. Rpetor noted.'
and tailfins, must grow with it if we are
to prevent the spread of unemployment
and poverty. If, on the other hand, we
could stabilize, or even reduce, our num-
bers, we then could turn some creative
thought to the possibilities of converting.
some of the wasteful components of to-
day's GNP into components of tomorrow's
GNP which will contribute to the happi-
ness and advancement of Americans.
Though materialistic America may ig-
nore them while cheering or bemoaning
the latest GNP statistics, there are many
requisites to human well-being which
economics cannot provide. These are the
things which, as Prof. Harrison Brown
points out, "are necessary for the fulfill-
ment of man's psychological and spiri-
tual needs," though "to be sure, they are
of no 'practical' value."
It is ironic that the society which has
achieved the leisure to enjoy these more
fulfilling aspects of life is beginning to
find that they are no longer available.
For population growth and its concomit-
ant, economic growth, have devoured most
of our natural recreational areas and are
expected to make short work of what is
left.
Three processes take place. First, as
natural areas do not grow with the pop-
ulation, increasing numbers mean then
that there are more people competing for
a fixed amount of forest or beach-in eco-
nomic terms, less natural area per capita.
Second, as the GNP grows, the need for
new industrial sites brings bulldozers to
many a forest and meadow, and turns
many a nearby lake into a polluted sewer.
Thus we not only have more people, but
they must share less and less natural
space.
Third, into the few surviving natural
areas, Americans seem to feel obliged to
bring not only themselves but as much
of their share of the GNP as can be car-
ried in, atop or behind their cars. So our
forests and coastlines not only become
glutted with people, but with most of the
internal-combustion engines, portable ra-
dios and electric appliances from which
these areas are supposed to be a retreat.
Moreover, they do not bring with them
the social change which Europe experi-
enced. It requires not social reorganiza-
tion when a United Nations plane sprays a
SUNDAY, MARCH 10, 196?
our pursuit of bigger and bigger GNP's
to support more and more people, one
man's part in all of it becomes smaller
and smaller. Each of us-factory worker
to President-becomes part of a nation-
wide assembly line over which no in-
dividual really has control. Not only is
the individual then powerless to change
his society, but even to change himself-
for he is hopelessly dependent upon the
machine.
These are some of the questions today's
population situation poses for the Ameri-
can present and near future. Now, with
such trends in mind, let's broaden our
perspective again, and take a look at
what population growth has in store for
us within the next 200 years.
When one looks at today's phenomenal
growth rates, the first question that
comes to mind is, "How long can this
go on?" How many unruly children will
Mother Earth be able to support-at what
point will she give up the struggle?
The estimates vary considerably be-
tween two extremes.
On one extreme, the darkest pessimists
emphasize that the. earth's capacity is
finite, and point out that we are close to
the limit. Taking their cue from the fam-
ous nineteenth - century writings of
Thomas Malthus, the "malthusians"
stress man's continuing dependence on
nature-no matter how much civilization
camouflages the fact. They explain that
when a species outgrows its sustenance,
the species either becomes extict or dies
off until its members are reduced to a
tolerable level. As soon as we devour what
little remains of our sustenance, warn
the malthusians, we shall be in dire
trouble. Their estimates of the earth's
maximum population run as low as five
billion, a mark we will reach in less than
35 years.
At the other extreme are those who
insist that the malthusians are being
naive, that with an expanding technology
there really is no problem at all. Through-
out human history, they state, except for
periods after new lands had been dis-
covered, the world has been overpopu-
lated. That is, there have been as many
people alive as the existing methods of
production and social organization could
support.
cious gulp. As these conventional sources
decline, the lack could be made up by
atomic-energy sources. As supplies of
high-grade uranium decline, atomic ener-
gy might be replaced by solar engines
which, properly set up, could tap the con-
tinual and virtually infinite streams of
energy sent to us by the sun.
An even more vexing problem is the
drain upon raw materials-which we can
neither grow, as we do food, nor receive
from the sun, as we might energy. "Long
before the world as a whole becomes
highly industrialized, those iron-ore re-
sources which can be easily mined and
easily processed will have disappeared ...
vanishing copper reserves will constitute
a formidable barrier to world develop-
ment," Prof. Brown notes. Gradually, we
will be forced to develop sophisticated,
expensive processing procedures to ex-
tract increasingly precious but increas-
ingly essential substances from increas-
ingly-low-grade ores or other potential
sources.
A RELATED problem is that of water.
The streams which our cities and fac-
tories- so joyously fill with sewage and
lethal chemicals may only frustrate a
few would-be swimmers today, but by the
year 2000 they will be a major national
problem. On top of that, our water de-
mands, already at 400,000 gallons a year
for every American, will increase so rap-
idly that even without pollution the prob-
lem would be staggering. The answer,
Prof. Brown suggests, will be to convert
seawater to freshwater-at a per-gallon
price of, at best, ten times what we pay
today.
As if these various resource problems,
considered separately, w e r e n 't bad
enough, the fact that they are interde-
pendent multiplies the headaches. To
overcome a shortage of one type of re-
source by more advanced technological
methods will require greater and greater
amounts of energy.
Prof. Brown concludes that, by proper
implementation of all these technological
ideas, resulting in a worldwide industry
dependent only upon "seawater, air, or-
dinary rock, sedimentary deposits of lime-
stone and phosphate rock, and sunlight,"
a world population of 50 billion people
magnitude of
that would a
industrial civi
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Conclu
Page Ten
THE MICHIGAN DAILY MAGAZINE