THURSDAY, JANUARY 6, 1966, THE MICHIGAN DAILY PAE NFIVN THURSDAY, JANUARY 6,1966 THE MICHiGAN DAILY ?AGR nYu . U.S. Peace Offensive Brings MixedReactions ________._____ ____ _ _.._._._d n __ __ '- U #illel By CLARENCE FANTO For almost two weeks, no Amer. ican bombs have fallen on North Viet Nam. For almost one week, United States diplomats have been engag- ed in a vigorous peace "offensive" aimed at bringing about uncon- ditional negotiations on the Viet Nam war. But so far, Washington has reached no clear decision on the significance of the response by Hanoi, Peking and Moscow. The drive toward negotiations began quietly, coming on the heels of a 30-hour Christmas truce that was only partially observed by the Viet Cong. It was soon clear from the hur- ried comings and goings of offi- cials such as Ambassador-at-Large W. Averell Harriman, United Na- tions Ambassador Arthur Gold- berg, Special Presidential Assistant McGeorge Bundy and Assistant Secretary of State G. Mennen Wil- liams, that the U.S. had embark- ed upon a major effort to trans- fer the fighting in the Viet Nam war theatre out of the battlefields and into the diplomatic arena. Visit Nine Countries The four presidential aides vis- ited leaders of nine countries (France, Britain, Poland, Canada, Yugoslavia, Italy, India, Algeria and Tunisia) in an attempt to open diplomatic channels and, at the same time, to refute domestic and foreign critics of U.S. policy who contend that this country has not undertaken a serious, sincere effort to open negotiations. Many of these critics have ar- gued that, as long as our bombing of North Viet Nam continued, there could be no positive response from Hanoi to suggestions for ne- gotiations. Well-informed Commu- nist and neutral diplomats spoke out in a similar vein. Thus, a combination of circum- stances led to President Johnson's' carefully considered decision- to open a major drive for peace at this time. The .brief 'Christmas M truce afforded an ideal opportunity to get his diplomatic show on the road. So far, however, the re- views have been mixed.' Reactions Vary British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, India's Premier Shastri, Pope Paul VI and others have strongly commended the intensive American effort. Moscow's reac- tion has been generally non-com- mittal. Predictably, Peking's re- sponse has been harsh and dis- couraging. The biggest question mark of all, however, remains North Viet Nam. President Ho Chi Minh's di- rect response to the halt in bomb- ings will constitute the key which will determine whether fighting will continue at an intensified level or whether a serious at- tempt to open negotiations can come about. Hanoi radio and press organs have issued a number of negative statements already, condemning the U.S. effort and standing firm on Hanoi's precondition for talks -adoption of a four-point pro- gram based on the 1954 Geneva agreement, which ended the war between France and Viet Nam. May Be Acceptable Three of these points may be ac- ceptable to the U.S.: an end to foreign entanglements in the country, a provision for free elec- tions, either in South Viet Nam alone or in the entire country, and an ultimate withdrawal of American forces. The Hanoi program, however, also calls for a Saigon government to be set up "in accordance with the program of the National Lib- eration Front" (the political arm of the Viet Cong. Hanoi Program Unacceptable This point is unacceptable to the U.S., since it is believed that Viet Cong participation in a Sai- gon government would lead to ul- timate control of the country by the Communists. Another ambiguous point in Ha- noi's program is the call for with- drawal of American forces. It has pot been made clear whether such a withdrawal would be necessary before negotiations, or as an end result of talks. If the former con- dition held, the point would be obviously unacceptable to Wash- ington. Administration officials have not, however,.been completely dis- couraged by the seemingly harsh line in the Hanoi press. It had been expected that, whatever North Viet Nam's private view of the peace offensive might be, a negative line would be maintain- ed for public consumption. Offi- cials are awaiting a direst response through private diplomatic chan- nels before deciding whether to resume bombing North Viet Nam. There have been various re- ports that the U.S. would resume bombing by early next week or that it would wait until at least January 24, after a four-day truce to celebrate the Vietnamese New YeaYr. Both sides have agreed to halt the -fighting from Jan. 20-24. Cautious Optimism There has been some cautious optimism because the pace of fighting in South Viet Nam has been reduced in recent days and because public attacks by the Com- munist world on the U.S. peace drive have failed to mention the pause in the bombing of North Viet Nam. Although there has been con- siderable ground fighting in the South since the Christmas truce ended ,the Viet Cong have failed to launch any attacks upon Amer- ican positions. Most of the fighting has been limited to encounters between Viet Cong and South Vietnamese forc- es. U.S. troops have been involved in several operations in the Me- kong Delta area, but these were initiated by the Americans rather than by the Communists. The Communists' failure to mention the bombing pause has led to speculation that North Viet .. am still has not decided whether to take up the U.S. offer for un- conditional talks. Playing for Time When that decision is reached, it is expected that it will be com- municated either through diplo- matic channels, a reduction in military activity and a halt in North Vietnamese infiltration into the South or, if the offer is re- jected, a major attack upon Amer- ican forces in the South. Some officials view the Com- munist silence on the bombing pause as an inducement for its continuation, at least for the pres- ent. More pessimistic diplomats are said to feel that the North Viet- namese may be playing for time in order to build up their military forces, to complete repairs on bombed-out bridges and roads, and to secure additional support from Russia and Communist China. Soviet Mission ' While Peking's attitude toward the war is manifest-it supports an all-out effort to win the war militarily. although it seems to be reluctant to directly involve it- :~; h.."t.". :" .. . ;.f l; th:..:.":": l t:.'."y.YsVl N":":::fY self in the fighting-Russia's at- titude is less clear. A top-level mission headed by the second-ranking Soviet Com- munist party official, Alexander Shelepin, arrives in Hanoi today. The purpose of the mission is not clear-Russia may either be seek- ing to convince President Ho Chi Minh to accept American offers to negotiate, or the Soviets may be planning to grant additional military and economic aid to Ha- noi to support the war effort. Battle for Influence In either case, it is clear that a major battle for influence is in progress between Russia and Red China, with North Viet Nam caught in the middle. While Rus- sia may well wish the war to end in order to concentrate on do- mestic economic problems, Soviet leaders may be reluctant to allow the Chinese to charge them with failing to support North Viet Nam resistance against what is consid- ered by the Communists to be un- justified American aggression against a comrade nation. Thus, the future course of the Sino- Soviet ideological dispute may well help determine Hanoi's attitude toward negotiations. While Soviet prestige is report- edly on the rise in Hanoi govern- ment circles, the North Vietnamese may be reluctant to antagonize their powerful northern neighbor, Red China, by acceding to U.S. calls for peace talks. Furthermore, the Hanoi government itself is split into pro-Moscow and pro- Peking factions which are jockey- ing for power. President Ho is said to belong to the pro-Soviet group, but powerful military lead- ers are opposing him. More Problems Washington officials caution that, even if the fighting can be scaled down and some kind of pre- liminary talks started, even more difficult political problems may lie ahead. An acceptable settlement of the war for the U.S. must include guarantees of self-determination for South Viet Nam. Hanoi is likely to insist upon a powerful role for the Viet Cong in any new coalition or neutralist Saigon government. The U.S. fears that if the Viet Cong are granted any role in such a government, they would eventually dominate it. The Communists would thus have won their battle by peaceful means. Strongest Force It is usually acknowledged that the Viet Cong are the strongest political force in South Viet Nam today. It is thus considered highly improbable that the Communists would be willing to give up a dom- inant political position after 15 years of costly fighting, first against France, then against the Diem regime in Saigon, and finally against an American force which is approaching the level of 200,000 troops. The immediate future - the question of whether the war is to be intensified or preliminary talks started-is still the main focus of Washington attention. President Johnson faces diffi- cult decisions related to the new budget, which may rise to more than $110 billion if the fighting continues. A restive Congress con- venes Jan. 10, and a full-scale debate on Viet Nam is considered likely, especially if new and more intense fighting breaks out. Domestic Considerations The President, furthermore, must weigh the domestic political implication of intensified fighting with increasing American casual- ties, a rising troop commitment, a possible callup of reserves and the imposition of federal controls to stave off inflation and impose wartime economic measures, all in an election year. Reports that spending for "Great Society" pro- grams may be trimmed because of war costs have already met with objections from congressmen, gov- ernment officials and portions of the public. The President thus faces a di- lemma which he is seeking to re- solve in advance by ruling out escalation of the war, thus en- abling the U.S. to halt its mili- tary buildup, reduce its spending for the war, and authorize suffi- cient funds for the new domestic programs approved by last year's Congress. Whether this last-ditch diplomatic effort can succeed should become clear within the next few days. 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