FRIDAY, AUGUST 27, 1965 TIDE MICHIGAN DAILY PAM _ _ . . s .,: DA..,AGST2,195T.....A D IYPAfU TW ...VAaJ wriv sw, Developments Raise Hope for Viet Outcome A By CLARENCE FANTO Recent developments have in- creased optimism that the course of the war in South Viet Nam is being reversed in favor of Saigon and Washington. Most, officials in Washington agree that, thus far into the current monsoon season, Viet Cong gains have been far less than originally expected. The recent United States victory over a large force of Viet Cong at Chulaf has reinforced the widespread belief that the tide of the war has shifted. , The weakness of the Viet Cong's summer offensive has also led to speculation that North Viet Nam may be exercizing restraint over the rebels in order to avoid an even larger buildup of American troops in South Viet Nam.' The U.S. currenttly has about 85,000 soldiers there, with 40,000 more expected within several months. Viet Cong Deaths Viet Cong fatalities and de- sertions- have increased markedly during the: past few weeks. The Communists have reportedly lost an average of 1;200 men weekly, compared to South Vietnamese deaths which have averaged 325 per week. Moreover, the desertion rate, an important indicator of the conflict's course, is for the first time greater among the Viet Cong than among government forces. Indications are that the Viet Cong have not received new sup- plies or reinforcements from North Viet Nam recently and have thus suffered a significant loss of strength. However, officials admit that the Saigon government is in a precarious position and that, politically, South Viet Nam still has a long way to go. before ap- proaching stability. Widespread gloom in Washing- ton earlier this summer, spurred by fears of an Ameriqan 'defeat similar to that suffered by the French at Dienbienphu in 1964, has abated with the increasing success of U.S. military operations against the Viet Cong. The heavy U.S. air support and continual bombardment of rebel positions in. the south, combined with increas- ingly severe attacks upon signifi- cant targets in North Viet Nam, are the principal factors which1 have blunted the Viet Cong drive for victory in the conflict. Although* U.S. forces have been notably :successful in missions along the strongly fortified coastal bases, experts say there are not enough American troops in Viet Nam to -apply similar tactics to inland areas where Viet Cong losses have been less pronounced. Unwilling The Viet Cong have shown less willingness in recent, weeks to en'- gage in battles unless they over- whelmingly outnumber South Vietnamese and/or American forces. Viet Cong prisoners and deserters have indicated a severe psychological crisis among rebel forces, since they have not pre- viously found themselves in as precarious a position as they are today. Furthermore, there are indica- tions that support of the Viet Cong among South Vietnamese peasants has sharply decreased because of high taxation and in- creased terrorism in Viet Cong- controlled villages. The monsoon season ends in two months and officials expect a crucial period this winter for U.S. and South Vietnamese forces. If the Viet Cong are forced to remain on the defensive much longer, it is felt their hopes for victory even in the distant future may be dealt a crushing blow. If, on the other hand, government forces do not sustain their recent streak of successes, an intensified buildup and drive for victory by the Viet Cong can be expected to develop next spring. Political Influences' Officials are exploring possible political influences upon the Viet Cong. President Lyndon B. John- son's offer last month to discuss proposals put forth by Hanoi may be affecting Communist actions. Neither North Viet Nam nor the National Liberation Front (the political arm of the Viet Cong) have commented on these pro- posals as yet. Some officials there- fore believe Hanoi may still wish to preserve diplomatic openings for negotiations. If the Viet Cong's heavy losses continue, Hanoi may well wish to cut its losses and attempt a political victory at the conference table. Although Communist China has vigorously opposed any moves toward a cease-fire or negotiat- ions, Hanoi is aware that it is North Viet Nam which is suffer- ing from U.S. air attacks, not the Communist Chinese. Furthermore, North Viet Nam has the diploma- tic and political support of Russia in any future moves toward the conference table. Canadian correspondents in Pe- king have recently reported that "all signs indicate that China wants to stay out of the war in Viet Nam." There is a lack of any "crisis atmosphere" in Peking, and military buildup measures have been defensive and precautionary. Diplomatic observers note that Communist Chinese threats to send men to South Viet Nam have been vague and carefully quali- fied. The prevalent conclusion is that Peking is "extremely eager to avoid a direct clash with the U.S." It is felt that the Chinese do not wish to jeopardize their recent economic gains at this time. American officials are under no illusions that the war in South Viet Nam can be brought to an early end with a withdrawal of U.S. forces following. A protracted struggle is foreseen, lasting at least another year. However, the heavy losses suffered by the Viet Cong cannot be absorbed indef- initely, and some observers are expecting a move toward negotia- tions and a cease-fire by next spring. LIBERAL INFLUENCE: Effeets of Negro Vote Seen (Continued from Page 4) has Democratic party politicians here scratching their heads. The federal examiners, and the voluntary compliance with the new Voting Rights Law that is hoped for in many Southern areas out- side the so-called Black Belt, are expected tor add hundreds of thou- sands, perhaps a million, Southern Negroes to the registration books by the time of the 1966 elections. Since 76 per cent of American Negroes now identify themselves as Democrats, because of the par- ty's economic and welfare pro- grams as well as its more recent leadership in civil rights, adding a million Negroes to the electorate ought to mean at least 750,000 new Democrats in the 11 Southern states next year. But since at best Negroes can make themselves no more than a minority of the Southern elector- ate, Democratic leaders here are apprehensive on two counts. The least likely is the possibility that the Republican party, newly re- surgent in the South, might seek to isolate Negroes in a hapless Democratic party and turn itself into a larger white man's party. Oppose Tradition This would be opposed to Re- publican tradition. It would cripple the Republican effort to rebuild in the great urban cities of thr north. Besides, millions of white South- erners; approve and benefit from the Democratic approach to wel- fare and economic problems; for instance, the Democrats effective- ly countered Mr. Goldwater's ap- peal in North Carolina last year by charging that he would end .federal subsidies for peanut and tobacco farmers. Where the pock- etbook collides with the race is- sue, the pocketbook usually wins. Perhaps more immediate is the fear that Negroes will go into the Democratic party in great num- bers but become a sort of outcast "bullet vote"-with whites auto- matically lining up against Ne- groes in primaries, outvoting them consistently, and thus keeping ra- cist politics alive. That may happen for awhile, in some areas, as a sort of white backlash. But where Negroes have been voting for some time-Atlan- ta is the classic example; North Carolina and Tennessee provide others - their votes eventually have come to be counted like any other, white politicians have eag- erly sought them ,and the race issue has all but disappeared. Exclusion Policies Racist politics, in the final an- alysis, depends on the exclusion of Negroes from voting. The dis- enfranchisement of Southern Ne- groes in this century resulted di- rectly from the corrupt and violent competition of Southern Bourbons and Southern agrarians for the Negro vote in the late 19th cen- tury. Fearing the Negro would tip the balance against them, the Bour- bons raised the flag of white su- premacy and aroused the poor- white agrarians against the- Ne- gro; Bourbons and agrarians then combined in the name of white solidarity to eliminate the Negro from the electorate as if he did not exist. For a half-century, it was then possible to winoffice in the South through anti-Negro campaigns. But as the Negro began to vote in great numbers elsewhere in the nation, the South's all-white poli- tics came under increasing at- tack; now, the federal government is forcing the final reenfranchise- ment of the Negro. Near Reality' So what the old Bourbons feared -white competition to win the Negro vote-now may be nearing reality, either between the parties or within Democratic primaries. If so, the competition surely will mean a new volatility in Southern politics and society, a new freedom for the white politi- cian to move beyond race to the broader issues of national life, and a new opportunity for the Negro to have his needs consid- ered instead of his skin. Copyright, 1965, The New York Times Back to school? 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