Michigan: * A bi. S Future in Education Continued from Page 9 million monstor providing 2000 or so jobs. The accelerator, or a similar project in the future, could easily fall to Ann Arbor and the impact would be tremendous. ONE ASPECT of the problem in setting off this sort of development has been the University's engineering school. Un- like the dean of engin schools, MIT. it has been slow to involve itself in new trends, reluctant to seek to develop a new and more exciting and politically and economically sophisticated breed of engineer..And the engineer is closer to the real world research corporations than the pure scientist. Creative thinking and innovation there- fore become the task of the new dean. Gordon van Wylen, who has, certainly. a great deal to work with but a lot of old thinking to rout out. Similarly he is close to the probiem of the Willow Run labs, which could contribute mightily to exciting research developments here, bu which are largely stifled in security. red tape and isolation. Two very real blocks to Michigan de- velopment exist in two widely diffeing contexts, the antiquated state tax systerr and the middle class affluence of the auto companies coupled with a disdain for local probiems (and they are, un- fortunately, thriving on it), Haber urged the state-wide income tax at a press conference announcing pub- lication of "Michigan in the 1970's," but a solution here is continually getting- fouled up in political maneuvering. THE POSITION and psychology of the auto companies, led by General Motors, is much more deep seated. They presently are accumulating, for instance, huge amounts of cash. with very little to do with it. Put to work creatively, and only a fraction of it is needed to build all the cars we can possibly use. it could go a long way toward setting the area economy on the right track, Large. nontransportation research and development programs might also be un- dertaken by them as a means of diversi- fying, with supporting programs under- taken concomitantly within the Univer- sity's er- gineering school to provide the type of manpower needed. (Chrysler's re- cent grant of $1.3 million is a shot in the arm, and a step in the right direction. but just one. Again, these are important things for van Wylen to think about. Thus far, there is practically nil productive alliance, direct or indirect, between the University or its graduates and the auto firms. They think in different worlds, and, for now, the great potential of working together is aoing unrealized. °rf1E CRUCIAL long-rainge problem that must be attacked is the loss of the edfcated. creative. innovative population. There are no solutions yet, even in theory. But there's no reason there can't be. President Harlan Hatcher, speaking be- fore the Economic Club of Detroit in Fenruary 1964 said: We have the brains, in both the universities and industries; we have the facilities and institutions; we have a state government sympathetic to the cause of educational and eco- nomic growth. But in this, as in so many other matters, the race is to the swift. We must move on all fronts- educational, industrial and govern- mnntal. We have, ready to our hands, the means to make this state. and particularly this Southeastern portion of it, an intellectual. scientific, and industrial center equal to any in the nation." Constantinos Doxiadis. who heads a famous planning firm headquartered in Athens, was in Detroit last spring to an- nounce some work his firm is doing for Detroit Edison. At a press conference he speculated on the future of Southeastern Michigan to the year 2000. He foresaw, on the basis of the first phase of his studies of the area, approx- imately $200 billion invested in new fa- cilities in this area between now and 20^0, and he said he considered the Great Lakes region to be the second fasteest growing region in the United States, second only to the Eastern Sea- board. THIS TREMENDTUS growth will come about because the Great Lakes region is like a "great plains." with no natural or other barriers to growth. Shortages of water elsewhere in the nation (now with us in New York and always threatening in Los Angeles) will make this the fast- est-growing area in the U.S. and number one in terms of over-all impact in the nation. Doxiadis declared. The abundant water supply of the Great Lakes thus becomes the prime asset for human growth and transportation needs. It will simply be a matter of going where there is water, and the Great Lakes region is the only place. The problem, of course, is to translate this potential into something more mean- ingful than words and phrases, and to plan for the growth, so that the short- term situation is livable and the long- term turns out the why we want it and not worse than what we now have. To do this, one can look first at the educational institutions and situations that now exist. Michigan is behind in facing squarely the problems of educa-. tion, but the foundation is fairly strong from past generosity and much is being done and planned now. THIS TREMENDOUS growth will come out of the penny-pinching years into a period of relative affluence. Its status in terms of faculty salaries, facilities and internal strength in terms of both quan- tity and quality is rapidly being regained through a combination of a level of basic quality that was held together through the worst years by dint of heroic effort by all concerned; federal money attracted, partly with the aid of good administration to this quality; and im- proved relations with a newly-affluent state legislature. When the $55 Million Program, new federal legislation to provide building money, and a still brighter picture in Lansing are added together, things begin to look a little better. This is not to say that the future for either the University or the state system of higher education will be easy by any means. It is only to say that it is not insoluble. At the PhD level Michigan ranks 3rd nationally in the production of all Mas- ters degrees, due largely to the Univer- sity's graduate program. Continued growth in this type of manpower has been questioned, however, by Wallace R. Brode in a January issue of Science magazine. Brode claims that a ceiling has been reached in the number of well-qualified scientists and engineers that the U.S. can produce, as evidenced by the slowly grow- ing graduate engineering and science enrollments in spite of greater and great- er number of undergraduates and the strong enticements to them to join these fields. He warns that standards must be watched carefully in spite of pressures to turn out more degrees. , THIS MIGHT AFFECT the enrollment projections of the engineering school, which call for an increase of 150 per cent in graduate enrollment from 1964- 75, a much greater increase than is projected for the University as a whole or for the other large schools. Graduate engineering enrollment grew only 11 per cent from 1960-65 at the University. The U.S. House Subcommittee on Science, Research and Development has projected a growth rate through 1980 of four per cent per year for BA's in all fields. This would give the University about 5500 BA candidates in 1975 if its proportion relative to the state stays the same. This is in line with the University's undergraduate enrollment projections (30,000 undergraduates in 1975). More serious is the question of PhD candidates. The University has projected a similar (four per cent) growth rate for them through 1975 as has the state- wide Blue Ribbon Committee, yet, as the Blue Ribbon analysis makes clear, much higher rates are clearly needed to provide the well-educated population needed to accelerate the state's development and provide the broad, strong base of well- trained teachers and administrators on which the state's educational system must rest. What is happening is that the college enrollment boom is coming up from the bottom in the educational system, yet it must be met with a response from the top, with well-trained professional people to run the burgeoning community college system as well as the older schools. A tremendous squeeze on the system results, and right in the center of the problem is the University, which provides almost half the graduate-professional education in the state. SO THE FOLLOWING questions become crucial to the future development of Michigan, and many of the answers will depend largely on planning and thought within the University: -Can the Universit,0% r'ie of national leadership in education be translated into a role as valuable to the state? -Can the University community begin to provide the type of environment that will attract the creative, innovating class needed to pull Southeastern Michigan out of its automobile-building orienta- tion? -Will the Detroit metropolitan area, which will before long be stretching out to Flint, Saginaw, Jackson and Toledo, solve its many problems of organization, accommodate a burgeoning Negro popu- lation and a huge factory worker one and start providing a more suitable en- vironment throughout for the culture and suburb orientated upper middle class such as New York, Chicago or San Francisco do? -Can all this be translated into new sources of economic support for ",he area (Meier has suggested the education in- dustry as most suitable for Southeastern Michigan, but that requires a drastic revision of our methods of financing higher education). THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT is pres- ently providing many programs aimed at positive solutions-poverty money in Detroit, research and education money in Ann Arbor-but it is hard to tell hw far these programs will go, how much they will expand and exactly what tbeir effects will be. Neither can the posture of the auto companies be predicted. What will happen when and if automobiles hecome less lucrative is hard to telt, and that date may be far off yet. It would seem likely. though, that General Motrs won't be one to watch idly while its profits enter an inexorable decline. Driven elsewhere for profitable enterprises, there is no telling where corporate interest might light. Be that as it may, fhe Univeimty of Michigan has a role to play. Its profes- sors are at the vanguard of knowledge and technology, as much so overall as any other place in the world. Its students are not far behind and will (more liter- ally than we generally care to suppose) be tomorrow's leaders. Whatever intellectual Lone, whatever cultural quality is to be imparted to Southeastern Michigan must to a large degree come from the University. Stim- ulus to the world's exotic new industries and occupations to take root here will have to come from the University. And when you consider that half the occu- pations 15 years hence will be ones unheard of now, that's a big order. The Univrsity brings the best students from all over the country and the world to Ann Arbor and creates from them, over 7000 (and the figure is rapidly approaching 8000) degree holders per year, 3500 students who have acquired their BA, 2400 their Master's, 850 other graduate-professional degrees and 400 their PhD's. That's potential, and problems, un- limited.. Schlock Culture Continued from Page 11 symbols to be sure, but not its funda- mental nature, the words of Professor Galbraith written in 1958 assume some degree of irony: "We have not yet seen that . . . our economy immobilizes all but a minor fraction of the (national) product in private and, from the standpoint of na- tional security, irrelevant production. We have not seen that the problem is far more than one of a bigger budget-that it is one of our attitude toward the goals of the society itself. A society which sets as its highest goal the production of private consumer goods will continue to reflect such attitudes in all its public decisions.... We have yet to see that not the total of resources but their studied and rational use is the key to achieve- ment." THE MICHIGAN DAILY MAGAZINE Z' 1 P Sfr~iAu MAGA:A Sunday, December 5, 1965 Vol. XI[, No. 2 Aerial view of Detroit and Windsor ....................... ....... . . . . ............ MAGAZI N E f Vol XII, No. 2 Sunday, December 5, 1965 IS MICHIGAN HEADED FOR THE ROCKPiLE?' By Robert Johnston.. Page One ... . . AN INTERVIEW WITH ROGER HEYNS ...Page Two HENRY VI: ERA OF CHAOS By Gail Blumberg ..........:.............. Page Six NEW POWER IN SOCIETY; THE SCHLOCK CULTURE By Mark R. Killingsworth................................ Page Ten MAGAZINE EDITOR - Gail Blumberg Photos: Cover: Willow Run Labs; Page 6, 7, Thomas R. Copi. Robert Johnston, Editor of The Daily, is a Senior majoring in honors history. Mark R. Killingsworth, a Junior majoring in economics, reports national affairs for The Daily. Gail Blumberg is a Senior majoring in English. P'g T Page Twelve Is Michigan headed For The Bockpile ? Sociologists, planners and economists, look- ing into the future of Michigan, forecast un- employment, crippling economic specializa- tion and inadequate education unless neir and imaginative programs can be developed and supported-a role the University of Michigan should take the lead in. Analysing and forecasting, used for just such thinking ahead, serve to pin- point potential trouble spots, areas where problems can be expected to develop unless steps can be taken early to combat them. SOME of the problems foreseen for' Michigan are: -A projected youth unemployment rate of 30-6 per cent going into the 1970's; -A need for 500,000 new jobs in Mich- igan by 1975; -Lack of economic diversification in the Detroit metropolitan area; -Inadequate and poorly planned high- er and vocational education in Michigan; -A static economic and class position for non-whites; -Lack of regional authority for posi- tive making and implementation of pol- icy in the Detroit metropolitan area; and -Lack of sufficient state revenues to support promising programs. THE three publications that have sought to collect data, bring it to- gether in coherent form, and stretch it out into the future in the necessary na- tional context to ascertain prospects and problems ate: -Michigan in the 1970's: An Economic Forecast, edited and with an introduction by Dean William Haber of the literary college and Profs. W. Allen Spivey and Martin R. Warshaw of the graduate busi- ness administration school; -Proposals For Human Resource De- velopment In Th Richard L. Meiel school; and -Research En versities by Frar trial Developmen tute of Science The broad que social and econo state add' up to answer it, is nec study down into of the componen opment into the variables as pos done, the parts : together again i and social syster SOME of the c -Pooulation: hy birth and de-. By breaking do one gets estimate have to be avai built. and the q will beneidId fr local overnmen -Education: man resources d determining how develnnment is education. throw vides the skills a sophisticated economy. -Economic Contii By ROBERT JOHNSTON SYSTEMS analysis is "in." Poverty is newly in. Forecasts are coming in. And interdisciplinary planning is just begin- ning to become respectable. For example, the 1964 report of the Mental Health Research Institute talks of conflicts, "one of the most potent sources of disorder and breakdown in so- cieties," as a "systems phenonenon" being studied at various levels: "among indi- viduals, groups, institutions, nations, and the international system, Several University publications over the past year have attempted to use some of the tools of economic and social analysis to put together forecasts of various lines of development for the state of Michigan over the nex't 10-20 years, then to put these forecasts together to predict sources of conflict, tension or friction among these trends. Their findings indicate that Michigan, while it is continuing to prosper in the midst of an unprecedented national eco- nomic boom, will suffer severely when there is even a mild slowdown. WORSE, the state, by relying on the presently prosperous auto industry for its economic foundation, is not taking the steps to correct the ills in govern- ment and in the use of human resources that are needed to move from a Henry Ford era into the space age. It is simply not thinking ahead or heeding the future.