4 | DECEMBER 26 • 2024 J
N

PURELY COMMENTARY

opinion

Egypt’s Military Buildup:
A Looming Threat to Israel
E

gypt, long considered a
country maintaining a cold
peace with Israel, is raising
alarms with its disproportionate
military expansion and question-
able activities. The
lessons of Oct. 7,
when over 1,200
Israelis were killed by
Hamas, underscore
the importance of
vigilance.
Egypt’s complicity
in facilitating Hamas’
weapon smuggling through Sinai
tunnels highlights the risks of
complacency. Despite international
agreements, Egypt turned a blind
eye, with reports suggesting
officials profited from the trade.
This underlines a critical lesson:
Israel must always prepare for
worst-case scenarios, even with
perceived partners.

THE SCOPE AND PURPOSE
OF EGYPT’S MILITARY
EXPANSION
Egypt has amassed an arsenal that
far exceeds its defensive needs.
Advanced fighter jets, modern
tanks, drones and an expansive
navy position Egypt as a regional
military powerhouse. These
developments, combined with its
strategic control of the Suez Canal
and Mediterranean naval presence,
raise questions about Egypt’s
intentions.
Lt. Col. (Res.) Eli Dekel, former
head of terrain research at the
IDF Intelligence Division, recently
highlighted these threats. Dekel

described Egypt’s military activity
in the Sinai Peninsula as clear
preparation for war with Israel:
“The Egyptian army is deployed
on the border. I see them there.
Egyptian tanks are stationed in
areas where no Egyptian soldier is
allowed to be. The actions of the
Egyptian military in Sinai prove
they are preparing for war with
Israel.”
Dekel emphasized Egypt’s deep-
rooted hostility toward Israel and
its long-term ambitions:
“Egypt is heavily invested
in preparing itself for military
confrontation when the global
power dynamics align in its
favor. Once a leader of the Arab
world, Egypt was ostracized
after recognizing Israel. Its
strategic goal has always been the
undermining of Israel’s existence.
Until they achieve this goal, they
do everything they can to diminish
Israel’s capabilities.”

ALARMING MILITARY
PREPARATIONS
Egypt’s recent activities are
particularly concerning. According
to Dekel, Egypt has begun
constructing massive tunnels in
the Sinai Peninsula, with entrances
up to seven meters wide and likely
tens of meters long, designed to
store strategic weapons. These
tunnels mirror similar structures
already built on the western
bank of the Suez Canal, with
approximately 60 such tunnels in
place.
“I don’t know of any other

enemy Egypt is fortifying against
like this,” Dekel said. “They are
not digging 60 tunnels in Sinai
to defend against Iran. This is
offensive weaponry, protected
from airstrikes, ready to be
deployed when they choose.”
Dekel also highlighted Egypt’s
rhetoric and military propaganda,
which reflect its growing hostility:
“Since the outbreak of the
war, Egypt has been sending us
veiled threats. Recently, during
the inauguration of Cairo’s
military academy, Egypt’s military
spokesperson openly discussed
vulnerabilities in Israel’s Merkava
tank while President Sisi himself
attended.
Just days earlier, the spokes-
person released a propaganda
video declaring, ‘We are preparing
our army for the day Israel ignores
our advice not to capture the
Philadelphi Route.’”

FRAGILE REGIMES AND THE
LESSONS OF ASSAD
The fragility of regional regimes
is a critical factor. Just as Syria’s
Assad regime succumbed to
internal strife, the governments
of Egypt and Jordan are not
immune to similar risks. Economic
hardship, public dissatisfaction
and Islamist opposition could
destabilize these nations. A
leadership change in either
country could result in regimes
far less committed to maintaining
stability with Israel, inheriting vast
military arsenals and populations
steeped in anti-Israel sentiment.

A CALL TO ACTION
To address these looming threats,
Israel must act decisively:
1. Fortifying defenses: Strengthen
border defenses, focusing on the
southern and eastern borders
to address risks from Egypt and
Jordan. This includes developing
robust military and civil defense
plans to prepare for worst-case
scenarios, such as hostile regime
changes or escalations in the
region.
2. Reforming IDF leadership
and intelligence communication:
The devastating events of Oct.
7 highlight a critical failure
in leadership and intelligence
communication within the IDF
high command. The inability to
recognize and act on clear warning
signs of the impending Hamas
attack underscores the urgent need
for systemic change.
3. Diplomatic engagement: Work
with the Trump administration
to ensure Egypt’s military
expansion remains transparent and
constrained.
4. Maintaining territorial
control: Retain sovereignty over
strategic areas such as Judea,
Samaria and the Philadelphi
Corridor to prevent adversaries
from exploiting them.
Israel’s security depends on
anticipating threats and preparing
for the unexpected. The lessons
of history are clear: Complacency
comes at an unbearable cost.

Kobi Erez is the executive director of Zionist

Organization of America.

Kobi Erez

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