Post-Election Speculation

NOVEMBER 14 • 2024 | 49
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the president-elect has offered few 
details about his vision for ending 
the conflict in the Middle East.
It’s also unclear whether an end 
to the war in Trump’s view would 
constitute one for what is left of 
Hamas. The terror group, which 
remains nominally in charge of Gaza 
despite having been decapitated 
and routed by Israeli forces, has so 
far been unequivocal that it will 
not agree to any ceasefire deal that 
would include the release of the 
hostages without a full cessation 
of hostilities and withdrawal of all 
Israeli troops.
That has left ample room for 
Middle East insiders to speculate 
about what both Trump and 
Netanyahu might be thinking, and 
where the daylight between them 
might be. 
“On the Netanyahu side, I think 
he is hoping he has a freer hand 
with Trump on Gaza in general,” 
said David Makovsky, a senior 
fellow at the Washington Institute 
for Near East Policy, a think tank 
that consults with both the U.S. 
and Israeli governments. He added, 
“He probably feels that the Trump 
administration will not put him 
under the same sort of scrutiny.”
But Makovsky said if Netanyahu 
thought he had fully alleviated 
pressure from the United States with 
Trump’s election, he could soon face 
a rude awakening. 
Trump told audiences on the 
campaign trail, including Arab 
Americans in Michigan, that they 
could expect “peace in the Middle 
East” if he became president. 
Trump also faces pressure from the 
Republican Party’s isolationist flank 
— including Vice President-elect 
J.D. Vance — that opposes foreign 
entanglements and has cautioned 
against conflict with Iran. 
“I think Trump is thinking about 
the Middle East breakthrough he 
would like, which is what the Saudis 
want,” he said. “But the Saudis say, 
‘You can’t have a breakthrough, 
Abraham Accords 2.0, if Israel is in a 
war in Gaza.’ I don’t think Netanyahu 
is as certain on his relationship with 
Trump as some people think.”

PRESSURES ON NETANYAHU
Offir Gutelzon, an Israeli expat 
who lives in the San Francisco 
Bay Area and who founded a 
group, UnXeptable, that protests 
Netanyahu in solidarity with Israeli 
antigovernment activists, said he 
did not believe Trump would be any 
more successful than Biden was in 
pressuring Netanyahu to end the 
war in Gaza. 
Trump or not, Netanyahu faces 
pressure from his right wing, which 
favors continued war until Hamas is 
crushed and which downplays the 
return of the hostages. 
“We are in a situation where 
Netanyahu needs to hold this 
government until the end of the 
budget [which must be approved by 
Dec. 31], and therefore he is unable 
to execute anything, unfortunately, 
due to his political survival needs,” 
Gutelzon said.
Gutelzon pointed to the fact 
that Netanyahu recently fired Yoav 
Gallant, the defense minister who 
argued that Israel had achieved 
its goals in Gaza and pushed for 
a postwar plan, as a sign that no 
end to the war, or hostage deal, is 
in sight, with or without Trump’s 
pressure.
“Firing Gallant is not a good sign 
for the hostages,” said Gutelzon, 
whose organization works with 
hostage families. “I honestly don’t 
know what Trump can do that 
Biden didn’t do — we hear from the 
hostage families themselves, that 
the main block for the hostage deal 
is Netanyahu and his government. 
And, therefore, it’s up to the 
government in Israel, not up to the 
president in the U.S.”
Netanyahu has clashed with 
Democratic presidents throughout 
his career, something that is thought 
to play well with his base of voters. 
But Helit Barel, a former director at 
Israel’s National Security Council, 
said that a clash with Trump, who 
is popular among Israelis, wouldn’t 
carry the same benefits for the 
prime minister. 
“Skirmishes with Trump are much 
harder for Netanyahu to manage 
than those with a Democratic 

administration, because at least 
there he scores political points at 
home,” she said in an interview. 
“Trump, however, also appeals 
to Netanyahu’s base and the Israeli 
public as a whole really favor him.” 

THE FATE OF THE HOSTAGES
For the families of the remaining 
hostages — who include four 
Americans thought to remain alive 
— the election is a jolt to a stalemate 
that has not returned their loved 
ones. 
 They exhorted Trump to work 
with the Biden administration 
during the transition period to 
secure the hostages’ release.
“This is an urgent, catastrophic 
humanitarian crisis, not a partisan 
issue,” they said in a statement 
issued Wednesday by the Hostages 
and Missing Families Forum. “Our 
family members in captivity in Gaza 
need a bipartisan coalition of brave, 
committed leaders to bring them 
home.”
It’s unclear if that advice will be 
heeded. In Trump’s first transition 
to the White House, he and his team 
famously rejected coordination 
and support from the Obama 
administration that was exiting.
Israel Policy Forum’s Efron said 
Trump’s record of unpredictability 
could nudge all parties — including 
Iran, which has backed Hamas 
and is threatening a third direct 
attack on Israel right now — toward 
ending the conflict.
“The good thing is that, because 
he’s unpredictable, despite being 
president four years — It’s pretty 
remarkable that he’s still so 
unpredictable — that he’s creating 
some sort of deterrence effect,” she 
said.
“I’m sure the same conversations 
are happening now in Ukraine and 
China, Taiwan and North Korea 
and in Iran and Israel: ‘What is he 
going to do?’ And we don’t know. 
And because of this deterrent effect, 
Trump might have leverage on the 
players.” 

With additional reporting by Deborah Danan 

of JTA.. 

R

ep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly 
prevailed in her Senate 
race over former Rep. 
Mike Rogers, making her one of 
two new Jewish members of the 
Senate and delivering a down-
ballot victory to Democrats in 
Michigan, a closely watched swing 
state that supported Republican 
Donald Trump for president. 
About three-tenths of a percent-
age point separated Slotkin, a mil-
itary veteran and former CIA ana-
lyst who represented a swing dis-
trict, from the Republican Rogers. 
Replacing retiring Michigan 
Democrat Debbie Stabenow, 
Slotkin will enter the Senate along 
with fellow Jewish Democratic 
Rep. Adam Schiff of California.
During her campaign, Slotkin 
sought to portray herself as a 
pragmatist who would work across 
the aisle: Her ads prominently fea-
tured images of her shaking hands 
with Republican former President 
George W. Bush. She has a record 
of supporting Israel and accepted 
donations from the pro-Israel lobby 
AIPAC, but told the state’s large 
population of Arab voters that 
her experience as an Iraq veteran 
gave her unique empathy and 
insight into their concerns. 

Elissa Slotkin Wins 
Tight Senate Race

ANDREW LAPIN JTA

ELAINE CROMIE/GETTY IMAGES/JTA

Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan speaks 
before U.S. President Joe Biden at 
the International Union of Operating 
Engineers Local 324 in Howell, Michigan, 
Oct. 5, 2021. 

