Post-Election Speculation
NOVEMBER 14 • 2024 | 49
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the president-elect has offered few
details about his vision for ending
the conflict in the Middle East.
It’s also unclear whether an end
to the war in Trump’s view would
constitute one for what is left of
Hamas. The terror group, which
remains nominally in charge of Gaza
despite having been decapitated
and routed by Israeli forces, has so
far been unequivocal that it will
not agree to any ceasefire deal that
would include the release of the
hostages without a full cessation
of hostilities and withdrawal of all
Israeli troops.
That has left ample room for
Middle East insiders to speculate
about what both Trump and
Netanyahu might be thinking, and
where the daylight between them
might be.
“On the Netanyahu side, I think
he is hoping he has a freer hand
with Trump on Gaza in general,”
said David Makovsky, a senior
fellow at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, a think tank
that consults with both the U.S.
and Israeli governments. He added,
“He probably feels that the Trump
administration will not put him
under the same sort of scrutiny.”
But Makovsky said if Netanyahu
thought he had fully alleviated
pressure from the United States with
Trump’s election, he could soon face
a rude awakening.
Trump told audiences on the
campaign trail, including Arab
Americans in Michigan, that they
could expect “peace in the Middle
East” if he became president.
Trump also faces pressure from the
Republican Party’s isolationist flank
— including Vice President-elect
J.D. Vance — that opposes foreign
entanglements and has cautioned
against conflict with Iran.
“I think Trump is thinking about
the Middle East breakthrough he
would like, which is what the Saudis
want,” he said. “But the Saudis say,
‘You can’t have a breakthrough,
Abraham Accords 2.0, if Israel is in a
war in Gaza.’ I don’t think Netanyahu
is as certain on his relationship with
Trump as some people think.”
PRESSURES ON NETANYAHU
Offir Gutelzon, an Israeli expat
who lives in the San Francisco
Bay Area and who founded a
group, UnXeptable, that protests
Netanyahu in solidarity with Israeli
antigovernment activists, said he
did not believe Trump would be any
more successful than Biden was in
pressuring Netanyahu to end the
war in Gaza.
Trump or not, Netanyahu faces
pressure from his right wing, which
favors continued war until Hamas is
crushed and which downplays the
return of the hostages.
“We are in a situation where
Netanyahu needs to hold this
government until the end of the
budget [which must be approved by
Dec. 31], and therefore he is unable
to execute anything, unfortunately,
due to his political survival needs,”
Gutelzon said.
Gutelzon pointed to the fact
that Netanyahu recently fired Yoav
Gallant, the defense minister who
argued that Israel had achieved
its goals in Gaza and pushed for
a postwar plan, as a sign that no
end to the war, or hostage deal, is
in sight, with or without Trump’s
pressure.
“Firing Gallant is not a good sign
for the hostages,” said Gutelzon,
whose organization works with
hostage families. “I honestly don’t
know what Trump can do that
Biden didn’t do — we hear from the
hostage families themselves, that
the main block for the hostage deal
is Netanyahu and his government.
And, therefore, it’s up to the
government in Israel, not up to the
president in the U.S.”
Netanyahu has clashed with
Democratic presidents throughout
his career, something that is thought
to play well with his base of voters.
But Helit Barel, a former director at
Israel’s National Security Council,
said that a clash with Trump, who
is popular among Israelis, wouldn’t
carry the same benefits for the
prime minister.
“Skirmishes with Trump are much
harder for Netanyahu to manage
than those with a Democratic
administration, because at least
there he scores political points at
home,” she said in an interview.
“Trump, however, also appeals
to Netanyahu’s base and the Israeli
public as a whole really favor him.”
THE FATE OF THE HOSTAGES
For the families of the remaining
hostages — who include four
Americans thought to remain alive
— the election is a jolt to a stalemate
that has not returned their loved
ones.
They exhorted Trump to work
with the Biden administration
during the transition period to
secure the hostages’ release.
“This is an urgent, catastrophic
humanitarian crisis, not a partisan
issue,” they said in a statement
issued Wednesday by the Hostages
and Missing Families Forum. “Our
family members in captivity in Gaza
need a bipartisan coalition of brave,
committed leaders to bring them
home.”
It’s unclear if that advice will be
heeded. In Trump’s first transition
to the White House, he and his team
famously rejected coordination
and support from the Obama
administration that was exiting.
Israel Policy Forum’s Efron said
Trump’s record of unpredictability
could nudge all parties — including
Iran, which has backed Hamas
and is threatening a third direct
attack on Israel right now — toward
ending the conflict.
“The good thing is that, because
he’s unpredictable, despite being
president four years — It’s pretty
remarkable that he’s still so
unpredictable — that he’s creating
some sort of deterrence effect,” she
said.
“I’m sure the same conversations
are happening now in Ukraine and
China, Taiwan and North Korea
and in Iran and Israel: ‘What is he
going to do?’ And we don’t know.
And because of this deterrent effect,
Trump might have leverage on the
players.”
With additional reporting by Deborah Danan
of JTA..
R
ep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly
prevailed in her Senate
race over former Rep.
Mike Rogers, making her one of
two new Jewish members of the
Senate and delivering a down-
ballot victory to Democrats in
Michigan, a closely watched swing
state that supported Republican
Donald Trump for president.
About three-tenths of a percent-
age point separated Slotkin, a mil-
itary veteran and former CIA ana-
lyst who represented a swing dis-
trict, from the Republican Rogers.
Replacing retiring Michigan
Democrat Debbie Stabenow,
Slotkin will enter the Senate along
with fellow Jewish Democratic
Rep. Adam Schiff of California.
During her campaign, Slotkin
sought to portray herself as a
pragmatist who would work across
the aisle: Her ads prominently fea-
tured images of her shaking hands
with Republican former President
George W. Bush. She has a record
of supporting Israel and accepted
donations from the pro-Israel lobby
AIPAC, but told the state’s large
population of Arab voters that
her experience as an Iraq veteran
gave her unique empathy and
insight into their concerns.
Elissa Slotkin Wins
Tight Senate Race
ANDREW LAPIN JTA
ELAINE CROMIE/GETTY IMAGES/JTA
Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan speaks
before U.S. President Joe Biden at
the International Union of Operating
Engineers Local 324 in Howell, Michigan,
Oct. 5, 2021.