NOVEMBER 7 • 2024 | 7
J
N

Netanyahu had agreed. The White 
House sent a procession of high-
level U.S. officials to Israel — 
the hibuk, in Hebrew, the bearhug 
— to help stay its hand. Finally, 
supremely sensitive American 
intelligence documents detailing 
Israel’s preparations for the raid 
were leaked to a pro-Iranian social 
media platform. The disclosure, 
the Israeli press reported, forced 
the IDF to delay the retaliation’s 
timing and revise its initial plan.
Throughout, the administration 
daily broadcast its fear of being 
drawn into a wider regional 
conflagration triggered by a large-
scale Israeli reprisal. It feared the 
impact of the raid on America’s 
diplomatic efforts to secure a 
ceasefire and hostage release 
deal in Gaza and to implement 
U.N. Resolution 1071, mandating 
Hezbollah’s withdrawal miles 
from Israel’s northern border, in 
Lebanon. 
Yet, despite its heavy and often 
ham-handed approach, the White 
House got its way. Accordingly, 
it praised the operation, deeming 
it a legitimate act of self-defense, 
and urged Iran to refrain from 
further escalation. Following many 
months of acute strain, the U.S.-
Israel alliance has undoubtedly 
been strengthened along with 
America’s status in the Middle 
East. Washington has every reason 
to feel heartened and relieved.
In addition to pleasing 
Washington, and despite their pro 
forma condemnations, the raid 
was no doubt received favorably 
by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, 
Jordan and Egypt. All wanted 
Iran to be punished but not at the 
price of an all-out Middle East 
war. By contrast, Iran’s Russian 
ally suffered a major setback 
as its most sophisticated anti-
aircraft systems were shown to be 

powerless to stop the Israelis.
So, with all its outstanding 
results, the question remains 
whether the mission secured its 
fundamental objective of deterring 
Iran. Will it dampen in any way 
Iranian support for its terrorist 
proxies or, by contrast, lead it to 
back diplomatic solutions? Did 
the limited operation reduce or 
enhance the danger of an Iranian 
decision to break out and create a 
nuclear weapon?
The answers will soon become 
clear. Just hours after the strike, 
Hezbollah rockets continued to 
rain on northern Israel, and Iran 
pledged to react proportionally 
to Israel. Rather than crediting its 
restraint, the New York Times and 
the Wall Street Journal both faulted 
Israel for expanding the Middle 
East war. And though grateful 
now, it’s yet to be seen whether 
the White House will respond as 
it did in 2012 when Netanyahu, 
after refraining from attacking 
Iran weeks before the presidential 
elections, was described by a 
senior source as “chickenshit.”
Though no polls have yet been 
conducted, many Israelis will likely 
feel that a unique opportunity has 
been missed. The Iranian nuclear 
threat still looms existentially over 
our heads, and the Ayatollahs 
continue to vow daily to annihilate 
us. For Israel, the hope is that 
the overnight operation will send 
them an unequivocal message: “If 
we can do this now, just imagine 
what else we can do in the future.” 
If that message is received, the 
operation may prove to be, if not a 
game-ender, a game-changer. 

Michael Oren, formerly Israel’s ambassador 

to the United States, Knesset Member and 

Deputy Minister for Diplomacy in the Prime 

Minister’s Office, is the founder of the Israel 

Advocacy Group and the author of the 

Substack, Clarity.
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